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New poll finds Biden, Warren in virtual tie in Iowa

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenMore than 300 military family members endorse Biden Five takeaways from the final Trump-Biden debate Biden: 'I would transition from the oil industry' MORE and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenBiden defends his health plan from Trump attacks Progressives blast Biden plan to form panel on Supreme Court reform Biden endorses Texas Democratic House candidate Julie Oliver MORE (D-Mass.) lead a new poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers by a wide margin as Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersBiden defends his health plan from Trump attacks Progressives blast Biden plan to form panel on Supreme Court reform Sanders: Progressives will work to 'rally the American people' if Biden wins MORE (I-Vt.) and Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump, Biden face off for last time on the debate stage Obama says he voted by mail: 'It's not as tough as a lot of folks think' Clean energy opportunities in a time of crisis MORE (D-Calif.) fade.

The poll was conducted for Focus on Rural America, a Democratic group run by former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D) and Iowa political strategist Jeff Link. It found Biden on top among likely caucusgoers with 25 percent of the vote, virtually tied with Warren, who took 23 percent.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegLGBTQ voters must show up at the polls, or risk losing progress Buttigieg says it's time to 'turn the page' on Trump administration Sunday shows preview: Coronavirus cases surge in the Midwest; Trump hits campaign trail after COVID-19 MORE (D) clocks in with 12 percent of the vote, finishing ahead of Sanders and Harris.

Sanders took 9 percent, while Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharDurbin says he will run for No. 2 spot if Dems win Senate majority Democrats seem unlikely to move against Feinstein Senate Democrats call for ramped up Capitol coronavirus testing MORE (D-Minn.), who is trying to make a charge in the neighboring state, took 8 percent.

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Harris took 5 percent, while billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom SteyerTom SteyerDemocrats seem unlikely to move against Feinstein 2020 election already most expensive ever TV ads favored Biden 2-1 in past month MORE clocked in at 3 percent. Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerDemocratic senators unveil bill to ban discrimination in financial services industry Obama endorses Espy in Mississippi Senate race Durbin says he will run for No. 2 spot if Dems win Senate majority MORE (D-N.J.) and entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangPelosi spars with CNN's Blitzer over COVID-19 aid: 'You really don't know what you're talking about' The shape of guaranteed income Biden's latest small business outreach is just ... awful MORE each took 2 percent, and five candidates took 1 percent of the vote among the 500 voters surveyed.

The trend lines look good for Warren, who has grown her support in the last two Focus on Rural America polls, and Biden, who has remained steady since the group's March 2019 poll. Buttigieg has seen his support increase in all three surveys in which his name has been included.

Sanders and Harris have seen their support plummet. In the group's March poll, Sanders had backing from 17 percent of Iowa caucusgoers, making him Biden's chief rival. Harris, meanwhile, surged to 18 percent in the group's July poll, just after her strong performance in the first Democratic debates. Both have since slumped.

More voters see Warren in a positive light, 84 percent, than any other Democratic candidate. Buttigieg is seen positively by 81 percent, Biden by 76 percent and Booker by 75 percent. More voters say they are actively considering Warren, 70 percent, than any other potential candidate, suggesting she has room to grow.

Lesser-known candidates like Yang and Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockPoll shows statistical tie in Montana Senate race Overnight Energy: Barrett punts on climate, oil industry recusals | Ex-EPA official claims retaliation in lawsuit | Dems seek to uphold ruling ousting Pendley Power players play chess match on COVID-19 aid MORE (D) have seen their positive ratings spike the most in the months since the group's last poll, while Harris and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro have seen their positive ratings fall most dramatically.

The percentage of voters who have a negative opinion of Castro has doubled, from 14 percent in July to 29 percent now, days after Castro attacked Biden at the most recent Democratic debate. Six in 10 likely caucusgoers said they had ruled out Castro as a potential candidate, more than anyone except Yang. Eighteen percent of likely caucusgoers said they had ruled Castro out as a possibility based solely on his debate performance.

Focus on Rural America has been pushing Democratic candidates to campaign beyond Des Moines, Iowa City and Sioux City. Judge has toured ethanol plants with several candidates in hopes of getting them into rural settings.

"If Democrats keep showing up in rural communities and standing up for rural voters, we will win the 2020 election," Judge said in a statement.

The poll, conducted Sept. 14–17 — entirely after the third round of Democratic debates — surveyed 500 likely caucusgoers by cellphone and landline. Conducted by David Binder Research, the same pollster who surveys for Harris's campaign, the poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.