New poll finds Biden, Warren in virtual tie in Iowa

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump knocks Romney as 'Democrat secret asset' in new video Giuliani asked State Dept. to grant visa for ex-Ukraine official at center of Biden allegations: report Perry won't comply with subpoena in impeachment inquiry MORE and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenHillicon Valley: GOP lawmakers offer election security measure | FTC Dem worries government is 'captured' by Big Tech | Lawmakers condemn Apple over Hong Kong censorship Sanders seeks spark from Ocasio-Cortez at Queens rally On The Money: Supreme Court takes up challenge to CFPB | Warren's surge brings scrutiny to wealth tax | Senators eye curbs on Trump emergency powers MORE (D-Mass.) lead a new poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers by a wide margin as Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSanders seeks spark from Ocasio-Cortez at Queens rally On The Money: Supreme Court takes up challenge to CFPB | Warren's surge brings scrutiny to wealth tax | Senators eye curbs on Trump emergency powers Biden seeks to fundraise off fact he's running out of money MORE (I-Vt.) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisHarris campaign releases web video highlighting opposition to death penalty Sanders seeks spark from Ocasio-Cortez at Queens rally Biden seeks to fundraise off fact he's running out of money MORE (D-Calif.) fade.

The poll was conducted for Focus on Rural America, a Democratic group run by former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D) and Iowa political strategist Jeff Link. It found Biden on top among likely caucusgoers with 25 percent of the vote, virtually tied with Warren, who took 23 percent.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegSanders seeks spark from Ocasio-Cortez at Queens rally Biden seeks to fundraise off fact he's running out of money Biden struggles to reverse fall MORE (D) clocks in with 12 percent of the vote, finishing ahead of Sanders and Harris.

Sanders took 9 percent, while Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharBiden struggles to reverse fall Krystal Ball rips media for going 'all-in' on Buttigieg's debate performance The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden camp faces new challenges MORE (D-Minn.), who is trying to make a charge in the neighboring state, took 8 percent.

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Harris took 5 percent, while billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom SteyerThomas (Tom) Fahr SteyerThe Hill's Campaign Report: Biden camp faces new challenges 2020 Democrats recognize Pronouns Day Third-quarter fundraising sets Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg apart MORE clocked in at 3 percent. Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerGabbard hits back at 'queen of warmongers' Clinton The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden camp faces new challenges Former public school teacher: Strikes 'wake-up call' for Democratic Party MORE (D-N.J.) and entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangSuper PAC seeks to spend more than million supporting Yang The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden camp faces new challenges Private flight spending soars in Democratic presidential race MORE each took 2 percent, and five candidates took 1 percent of the vote among the 500 voters surveyed.

The trend lines look good for Warren, who has grown her support in the last two Focus on Rural America polls, and Biden, who has remained steady since the group's March 2019 poll. Buttigieg has seen his support increase in all three surveys in which his name has been included.

Sanders and Harris have seen their support plummet. In the group's March poll, Sanders had backing from 17 percent of Iowa caucusgoers, making him Biden's chief rival. Harris, meanwhile, surged to 18 percent in the group's July poll, just after her strong performance in the first Democratic debates. Both have since slumped.

More voters see Warren in a positive light, 84 percent, than any other Democratic candidate. Buttigieg is seen positively by 81 percent, Biden by 76 percent and Booker by 75 percent. More voters say they are actively considering Warren, 70 percent, than any other potential candidate, suggesting she has room to grow.

Lesser-known candidates like Yang and Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockSuper PAC seeks to spend more than million supporting Yang The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden camp faces new challenges Private flight spending soars in Democratic presidential race MORE (D) have seen their positive ratings spike the most in the months since the group's last poll, while Harris and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro have seen their positive ratings fall most dramatically.

The percentage of voters who have a negative opinion of Castro has doubled, from 14 percent in July to 29 percent now, days after Castro attacked Biden at the most recent Democratic debate. Six in 10 likely caucusgoers said they had ruled out Castro as a potential candidate, more than anyone except Yang. Eighteen percent of likely caucusgoers said they had ruled Castro out as a possibility based solely on his debate performance.

Focus on Rural America has been pushing Democratic candidates to campaign beyond Des Moines, Iowa City and Sioux City. Judge has toured ethanol plants with several candidates in hopes of getting them into rural settings.

"If Democrats keep showing up in rural communities and standing up for rural voters, we will win the 2020 election," Judge said in a statement.

The poll, conducted Sept. 14–17 — entirely after the third round of Democratic debates — surveyed 500 likely caucusgoers by cellphone and landline. Conducted by David Binder Research, the same pollster who surveys for Harris's campaign, the poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.