SPONSORED:

New poll finds Biden, Warren in virtual tie in Iowa

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenCensus results show White House doubling down on failure Poll: Americans back new spending, tax hikes on wealthy, but remain wary of economic impact True immigration reform requires compromise from both sides of the aisle MORE and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenSchumer works to balance a divided caucus's demands DNC gathers opposition research on over 20 potential GOP presidential candidates Warren book reflects on losing 2020 bid: 'Painful' MORE (D-Mass.) lead a new poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers by a wide margin as Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersPBS White House reporter Yamiche Alcindor to moderate 'Washington Week' Pressure builds for Biden to back vaccine patent waivers Democrats confront difficult prospects for midterms MORE (I-Vt.) and Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisAlabama museum unveils restored Greyhound bus for Freedom Rides' 60th anniversary Never underestimate Joe Biden Prosecuting the Flint water case MORE (D-Calif.) fade.

The poll was conducted for Focus on Rural America, a Democratic group run by former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D) and Iowa political strategist Jeff Link. It found Biden on top among likely caucusgoers with 25 percent of the vote, virtually tied with Warren, who took 23 percent.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegBusiness groups target moderate Democrats on Biden tax plans Biden plugs infrastructure with a personal favorite: Amtrak CDC says cruises could begin in July MORE (D) clocks in with 12 percent of the vote, finishing ahead of Sanders and Harris.

Sanders took 9 percent, while Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharWashington keeps close eye as Apple antitrust fight goes to court Senate Democrats push Biden over raising refugee cap Hillicon Valley: Acting FTC chair urges Congress to revive agency authority after Supreme Court ruling | Senate Intel panel working on breach notification bill MORE (D-Minn.), who is trying to make a charge in the neighboring state, took 8 percent.

ADVERTISEMENT

Harris took 5 percent, while billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom SteyerTom SteyerTop 12 political donors accounted for almost 1 of every 13 dollars raised since 2009: study California Democrats weigh their recall options Why we should be leery of companies entering political fray MORE clocked in at 3 percent. Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerNever underestimate Joe Biden Police reform talks ramp up amid pressure from Biden, families Victims' relatives hold Capitol Hill meetings to push police reform MORE (D-N.J.) and entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangYang gets key endorsement from former opponent in NYC mayor race Yang expands lead in NYC mayor race: poll Evelyn Yang pens children's book on sexual abuse, reveals she was sexually assaulted as a child MORE each took 2 percent, and five candidates took 1 percent of the vote among the 500 voters surveyed.

The trend lines look good for Warren, who has grown her support in the last two Focus on Rural America polls, and Biden, who has remained steady since the group's March 2019 poll. Buttigieg has seen his support increase in all three surveys in which his name has been included.

Sanders and Harris have seen their support plummet. In the group's March poll, Sanders had backing from 17 percent of Iowa caucusgoers, making him Biden's chief rival. Harris, meanwhile, surged to 18 percent in the group's July poll, just after her strong performance in the first Democratic debates. Both have since slumped.

More voters see Warren in a positive light, 84 percent, than any other Democratic candidate. Buttigieg is seen positively by 81 percent, Biden by 76 percent and Booker by 75 percent. More voters say they are actively considering Warren, 70 percent, than any other potential candidate, suggesting she has room to grow.

Lesser-known candidates like Yang and Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockOvernight Energy: Climate Summit Day 2 — Biden says US will work with other countries on climate innovation Biden announces picks to lead oceans, lands agencies Biden set to pick conservation advocate for top land management role MORE (D) have seen their positive ratings spike the most in the months since the group's last poll, while Harris and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro have seen their positive ratings fall most dramatically.

The percentage of voters who have a negative opinion of Castro has doubled, from 14 percent in July to 29 percent now, days after Castro attacked Biden at the most recent Democratic debate. Six in 10 likely caucusgoers said they had ruled out Castro as a potential candidate, more than anyone except Yang. Eighteen percent of likely caucusgoers said they had ruled Castro out as a possibility based solely on his debate performance.

Focus on Rural America has been pushing Democratic candidates to campaign beyond Des Moines, Iowa City and Sioux City. Judge has toured ethanol plants with several candidates in hopes of getting them into rural settings.

"If Democrats keep showing up in rural communities and standing up for rural voters, we will win the 2020 election," Judge said in a statement.

The poll, conducted Sept. 14–17 — entirely after the third round of Democratic debates — surveyed 500 likely caucusgoers by cellphone and landline. Conducted by David Binder Research, the same pollster who surveys for Harris's campaign, the poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.