Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire

Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire
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Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenDemocrats redefine center as theirs collapses Massachusetts Democrats question deployment of Border Patrol teams to sanctuary cities Speculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage MORE (D-Mass.) leads the pack of Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, according to a new Monmouth University Poll survey of the state's voters, overtaking former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenDemocrats redefine center as theirs collapses Speculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage Pelosi: 'I'm not counting Joe Biden out' MORE and her top progressive rival, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersDemocrats redefine center as theirs collapses Speculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage Pelosi: 'I'm not counting Joe Biden out' MORE (I-Vt.).

The poll shows Warren with 27 percent support among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the crucial first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 11, a significant increase from the 8 percent support she received in Monmouth’s last Granite State poll in May.

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Biden, meanwhile, saw the largest drop in support over the past four months, plummeting from 36 percent to 25 percent in the most recent survey. Sanders, who previously held the second-place spot behind Biden, registered at 12 percent in the most recent poll, down from 18 percent in May. Sanders attracted more than 60 percent of the vote in state during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, beating former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe 'Palmetto Promise': South Carolina will decide the race Alabama Senate contender hits Sessions in new ad: 'Hillary still ain't in jail' Worries grow as moderates split Democratic vote MORE by more than 22 points.

Only one other candidate, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegKlobuchar, Steyer unable to name Mexico's president in pointed interview Democrats redefine center as theirs collapses Speculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage MORE, notched double-digit support in Monmouth’s latest New Hampshire poll, coming in at 10 percent.

Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisConway: Trump is 'toying with everybody' by attacking Bloomberg for stop-and-frisk comments The Hill's Campaign Report: New challenges for 2020 Dems in Nevada, South Carolina Beleaguered Biden turns to must-win South Carolina MORE (D-Calif.), who has seen her polling numbers decline in recent weeks, finished in fifth place in the most recent New Hampshire poll with 3 percent support. That’s down from 6 percent in May.

The survey is the second major poll in recent days to show Warren overtaking Biden in a critical early state. A Des Moines Register-CNN poll released on Saturday found the Massachusetts senator leading Biden in Iowa, which holds the nation’s first caucus, 22 percent to 20 percent.

It also comes as a poll out Tuesday shows Warren moving to within the margin of error on Biden in Nevada.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said that Warren’s surge in support has come at a cost to Biden and Sanders. 

She has increased her share of support among self-identified moderate and conservatives by 11 points since May, while Biden saw a 15-point drop in support among those voters. At the same time, Warren’s support among self-described liberals has jumped 28 points since May, while Sanders’s backing has fallen 13 points among that group.

“Warren continues to look stronger with every new poll. She seems to be picking up support across the spectrum with gains coming at the expense of both Biden and Sanders,” Murray said.

She has also seen an uptick in her favorability since May, according to the Monmouth poll, rising from 63 percent favorability four months ago to 74 percent in September, the highest of any candidate. Biden and Sanders, on the other hand, saw their personal favorability dip by 14 points and 10 points, respectively. 

Warren’s rise in New Hampshire flies in the face of questions about her electability in a head-to-head match-up against President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump administration eyes proposal to block jet engine sales to China: report Trump takes track to open Daytona 500 Brazile 'extremely dismayed' by Bloomberg record MORE. The Monmouth poll found that nearly half of all likely voters — 47 percent — say their first choice for the Democratic nomination is the candidate they agree with most and the one most likely to defeat Trump in 2020.

To be sure, the dynamics of the race in New Hampshire are not set in stone, and the figures released by Monmouth on Tuesday represent only one likely voter model. 

Another voter model that gave more weight to less-likely voters showed Biden in the lead with 27 percent support and Warren in second with 25 percent support. Conversely, a separate model that weighted traditional primary voters more heavily showed Warren with 29 percent support and Biden in second with 24 percent.

The latest Monmouth poll showed five other candidates registering at 2 percent in New Hampshire: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerSpeculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage Conway: Trump is 'toying with everybody' by attacking Bloomberg for stop-and-frisk comments Democratic rivals sharpen attacks as Bloomberg rises MORE (D-N.J.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardSanders leads Biden in latest Nevada poll Yang: NYC should implement universal basic income The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE (D-Hawaii), Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharKlobuchar, Steyer unable to name Mexico's president in pointed interview Democrats redefine center as theirs collapses Speculation swirls around whether Bloomberg will make Las Vegas debate stage MORE (D-Minn.), billionaire philanthropist Tom SteyerTom Fahr SteyerKlobuchar, Steyer unable to name Mexico's president in pointed interview Sunday shows - Spotlight shines on Bloomberg, stop and frisk Toward 'Super Tuesday' — momentum, money and delegates MORE and former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangTrump seeks split-screen moments in early primary states More accusers come forward after Evelyn Yang breaks silence on alleged assault by OBGYN Sanders leads Biden in latest Nevada poll MORE. No other candidate notched more than 1 percent.

The survey brings particularly good news for Gabbard, giving her the fourth qualifying poll she needed to make the Democratic presidential debate stage in October. She is the twelfth candidate to qualify for that debate. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 401 New Hampshire voters who are likely to cast ballots in the state’s Democratic presidential primary from Sept. 17-21. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.