Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire

Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire
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Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenChris Wallace: Trump struggling with attacks on 'shape-shifter' Harris Markey riffs on JFK quote in new ad touting progressive bona fides Howard Kurtz: Kamala Harris 'getting walk on water coverage' by media after VP pick MORE (D-Mass.) leads the pack of Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, according to a new Monmouth University Poll survey of the state's voters, overtaking former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHarris to host virtual Hollywood campaign event co-chaired by Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling Trump plans to accept Republican nomination from White House lawn US seizes four vessels loaded with Iranian fuel MORE and her top progressive rival, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersChris Wallace: Trump struggling with attacks on 'shape-shifter' Harris Kamala Harris: The outreach Latinos need Biden and Harris seen as more moderate than Trump and Pence: poll MORE (I-Vt.).

The poll shows Warren with 27 percent support among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the crucial first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 11, a significant increase from the 8 percent support she received in Monmouth’s last Granite State poll in May.

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Biden, meanwhile, saw the largest drop in support over the past four months, plummeting from 36 percent to 25 percent in the most recent survey. Sanders, who previously held the second-place spot behind Biden, registered at 12 percent in the most recent poll, down from 18 percent in May. Sanders attracted more than 60 percent of the vote in state during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, beating former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonUSPS warns Pennsylvania mail-in ballots may not be delivered in time to be counted Senate leaves until September without coronavirus relief deal Gloria Steinem: Selection of Kamala Harris recognizes that 'black women ... are the heart and soul of the Democratic Party' MORE by more than 22 points.

Only one other candidate, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - The choice: Biden-Harris vs. Trump-Pence California Democrats back Yang after he expresses disappointment over initial DNC lineup Obamas, Clintons to headline Biden's nominating convention MORE, notched double-digit support in Monmouth’s latest New Hampshire poll, coming in at 10 percent.

Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHarris to host virtual Hollywood campaign event co-chaired by Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling Democrats hammer Trump for entertaining false birther theory about Harris Hillicon Valley: 'Fortnite' owner sues Apple after game is removed from App Store | Federal agencies seize, dismantle cryptocurrency campaigns of major terrorist organizations MORE (D-Calif.), who has seen her polling numbers decline in recent weeks, finished in fifth place in the most recent New Hampshire poll with 3 percent support. That’s down from 6 percent in May.

The survey is the second major poll in recent days to show Warren overtaking Biden in a critical early state. A Des Moines Register-CNN poll released on Saturday found the Massachusetts senator leading Biden in Iowa, which holds the nation’s first caucus, 22 percent to 20 percent.

It also comes as a poll out Tuesday shows Warren moving to within the margin of error on Biden in Nevada.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said that Warren’s surge in support has come at a cost to Biden and Sanders. 

She has increased her share of support among self-identified moderate and conservatives by 11 points since May, while Biden saw a 15-point drop in support among those voters. At the same time, Warren’s support among self-described liberals has jumped 28 points since May, while Sanders’s backing has fallen 13 points among that group.

“Warren continues to look stronger with every new poll. She seems to be picking up support across the spectrum with gains coming at the expense of both Biden and Sanders,” Murray said.

She has also seen an uptick in her favorability since May, according to the Monmouth poll, rising from 63 percent favorability four months ago to 74 percent in September, the highest of any candidate. Biden and Sanders, on the other hand, saw their personal favorability dip by 14 points and 10 points, respectively. 

Warren’s rise in New Hampshire flies in the face of questions about her electability in a head-to-head match-up against President TrumpDonald John TrumpUSPS warns Pennsylvania mail-in ballots may not be delivered in time to be counted Michael Cohen book accuses Trump of corruption, fraud Trump requests mail-in ballot for Florida congressional primary MORE. The Monmouth poll found that nearly half of all likely voters — 47 percent — say their first choice for the Democratic nomination is the candidate they agree with most and the one most likely to defeat Trump in 2020.

To be sure, the dynamics of the race in New Hampshire are not set in stone, and the figures released by Monmouth on Tuesday represent only one likely voter model. 

Another voter model that gave more weight to less-likely voters showed Biden in the lead with 27 percent support and Warren in second with 25 percent support. Conversely, a separate model that weighted traditional primary voters more heavily showed Warren with 29 percent support and Biden in second with 24 percent.

The latest Monmouth poll showed five other candidates registering at 2 percent in New Hampshire: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerOn The Money: Pelosi, Mnuchin talk but make no progress on ending stalemate | Trump grabs 'third rail' of politics with payroll tax pause | Trump uses racist tropes to pitch fair housing repeal to 'suburban housewife' The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden, Harris make first public appearance as running mates Booker hits back at Trump tweet, mocks misspelling of name MORE (D-N.J.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardTrump and allies grapple with how to target Harris It's Harris — and we're not surprised Democrat Kai Kahele wins Hawaii primary to replace Tulsi Gabbard MORE (D-Hawaii), Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharElection security advocates see strong ally in Harris The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - The choice: Biden-Harris vs. Trump-Pence California Democrats back Yang after he expresses disappointment over initial DNC lineup MORE (D-Minn.), billionaire philanthropist Tom SteyerTom SteyerCalifornia Democrats back Yang after he expresses disappointment over initial DNC lineup Steyer endorses reparations bill, commits to working with Jackson Lee Progressive group launches M pro-Biden ad buy targeting young voters MORE and former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump threatens Postal Service funding l Biden proposes national mask mandate l Democratic convention takes shape Bloomberg to speak at Democratic convention Allegations roil progressive insurgent's House bid MORE. No other candidate notched more than 1 percent.

The survey brings particularly good news for Gabbard, giving her the fourth qualifying poll she needed to make the Democratic presidential debate stage in October. She is the twelfth candidate to qualify for that debate. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 401 New Hampshire voters who are likely to cast ballots in the state’s Democratic presidential primary from Sept. 17-21. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.