Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire

Poll: Warren overtakes Biden, Sanders in New Hampshire
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Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Bloomberg, Patrick take different approaches after late entries into primary race Deval Patrick: a short runway, but potential to get airborne MORE (D-Mass.) leads the pack of Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, according to a new Monmouth University Poll survey of the state's voters, overtaking former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenBudget official says he didn't know why military aid was delayed: report Growing 2020 field underscores Democratic divide READ: Foreign service officer Jennifer Williams' closed-door testimony from the House impeachment inquiry MORE and her top progressive rival, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSinger Neil Young says that America's presidents haven't done enough address climate change New poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Growing 2020 field underscores Democratic divide MORE (I-Vt.).

The poll shows Warren with 27 percent support among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the crucial first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 11, a significant increase from the 8 percent support she received in Monmouth’s last Granite State poll in May.

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Biden, meanwhile, saw the largest drop in support over the past four months, plummeting from 36 percent to 25 percent in the most recent survey. Sanders, who previously held the second-place spot behind Biden, registered at 12 percent in the most recent poll, down from 18 percent in May. Sanders attracted more than 60 percent of the vote in state during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, beating former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonGOP divided over impeachment trial strategy 'Too Far Left' hashtag trends on Twitter Resistance or unhinged behavior? Partisan hatred reaches Trump's family MORE by more than 22 points.

Only one other candidate, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Growing 2020 field underscores Democratic divide Deval Patrick: a short runway, but potential to get airborne MORE, notched double-digit support in Monmouth’s latest New Hampshire poll, coming in at 10 percent.

Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Growing 2020 field underscores Democratic divide Harris gets key union endorsement amid polling plateau MORE (D-Calif.), who has seen her polling numbers decline in recent weeks, finished in fifth place in the most recent New Hampshire poll with 3 percent support. That’s down from 6 percent in May.

The survey is the second major poll in recent days to show Warren overtaking Biden in a critical early state. A Des Moines Register-CNN poll released on Saturday found the Massachusetts senator leading Biden in Iowa, which holds the nation’s first caucus, 22 percent to 20 percent.

It also comes as a poll out Tuesday shows Warren moving to within the margin of error on Biden in Nevada.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said that Warren’s surge in support has come at a cost to Biden and Sanders. 

She has increased her share of support among self-identified moderate and conservatives by 11 points since May, while Biden saw a 15-point drop in support among those voters. At the same time, Warren’s support among self-described liberals has jumped 28 points since May, while Sanders’s backing has fallen 13 points among that group.

“Warren continues to look stronger with every new poll. She seems to be picking up support across the spectrum with gains coming at the expense of both Biden and Sanders,” Murray said.

She has also seen an uptick in her favorability since May, according to the Monmouth poll, rising from 63 percent favorability four months ago to 74 percent in September, the highest of any candidate. Biden and Sanders, on the other hand, saw their personal favorability dip by 14 points and 10 points, respectively. 

Warren’s rise in New Hampshire flies in the face of questions about her electability in a head-to-head match-up against President TrumpDonald John TrumpGOP divided over impeachment trial strategy Official testifies that Bolton had 'one-on-one meeting' with Trump over Ukraine aid Louisiana governor wins re-election MORE. The Monmouth poll found that nearly half of all likely voters — 47 percent — say their first choice for the Democratic nomination is the candidate they agree with most and the one most likely to defeat Trump in 2020.

To be sure, the dynamics of the race in New Hampshire are not set in stone, and the figures released by Monmouth on Tuesday represent only one likely voter model. 

Another voter model that gave more weight to less-likely voters showed Biden in the lead with 27 percent support and Warren in second with 25 percent support. Conversely, a separate model that weighted traditional primary voters more heavily showed Warren with 29 percent support and Biden in second with 24 percent.

The latest Monmouth poll showed five other candidates registering at 2 percent in New Hampshire: Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Deval Patrick: a short runway, but potential to get airborne Overnight Health Care: Warren promises gradual move to 'Medicare for All' | Rivals dismiss Warren plan for first 100 days | White House unveils rules on disclosing hospital prices | Planned Parenthood wins case against anti-abortion group MORE (D-N.J.), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Deval Patrick: a short runway, but potential to get airborne Saagar Enjeti: Yang's plan to regulate big tech misses the mark MORE (D-Hawaii), Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Election 2020: Why I'm watching Amy and Andy 2020 Democrats demand action on guns after Santa Clarita shooting MORE (D-Minn.), billionaire philanthropist Tom SteyerThomas (Tom) Fahr SteyerNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Deval Patrick: a short runway, but potential to get airborne Ocasio-Cortez jabs 'plutocratic' late entrants to 2020 field MORE and former tech executive Andrew YangAndrew YangNew poll catapults Buttigieg to frontrunner position in Iowa Growing 2020 field underscores Democratic divide Saagar Enjeti: Yang's plan to regulate big tech misses the mark MORE. No other candidate notched more than 1 percent.

The survey brings particularly good news for Gabbard, giving her the fourth qualifying poll she needed to make the Democratic presidential debate stage in October. She is the twelfth candidate to qualify for that debate. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 401 New Hampshire voters who are likely to cast ballots in the state’s Democratic presidential primary from Sept. 17-21. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.