Biden holds double-digit lead in Democratic primary

Biden holds double-digit lead in Democratic primary
© Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenDeputy AG: DOJ investigating fake Trump electors On The Money — Vaccine-or-test mandate for businesses nixed Warner tests positive for breakthrough COVID-19 case MORE holds a double-digit lead against his closest rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But there are signs Biden's support may be slipping, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.

The poll showed Biden with 28 percent support among registered Democratic voters, a 4-point drop since last month when a similar survey showed him at 32 percent. He’s trailed by Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenFiscal conservatives should support postal reform  Five Democrats the left plans to target Arizona Democratic Party executive board censures Sinema MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersFiscal conservatives should support postal reform  Gallego went to New York to meet Sinema donors amid talk of primary challenge: report Five Democrats the left plans to target MORE (I-Vt.), who registered 17 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

No other candidate registered double digits. Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisHispanics sour on Biden and Democrats' agenda as midterms loom Officer who directed rioters away from senators says Jan. 6 could have been a 'bloodbath' Trump and Biden should stop denigrating US elections MORE (D-Calif.), the fourth-place finisher in the poll, notched 6 percent, while three other candidates, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden talks, Senate balks Airlines suspend US flights in response to 5G deployment AT&T, Verizon to delay 5G rollout near certain airports MORE, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangBottom line American elections are getting less predictable; there's a reason for that Poll: Harris, Michelle Obama lead for 2024 if Biden doesn't run MORE, tied for fifth place with 3 percent each.


Only three others, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Sen. Cory BookerCory BookerDespite Senate setbacks, the fight for voting rights is far from over Small ranchers say Biden letting them get squeezed Democrats call on Biden administration to ease entry to US for at-risk Afghans MORE (D-N.J.) and billionaire philanthropist Tom SteyerTom SteyerYouth voting organization launches M registration effort in key battlegrounds Overnight Energy: 'Eye of fire,' Exxon lobbyist's comments fuel renewed attacks on oil industry | Celebrities push Biden to oppose controversial Minnesota pipeline | More than 75 companies ask Congress to pass clean electricity standard Celebrities push Biden to oppose controversial Minnesota pipeline MORE, registered above 1 percent in the poll, taking 2 percent support each.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll surveyed 693 registered Democratic voters from Sept. 22-24, and does not report a margin of error.

While Biden still leads in the poll, there were positive signs for Warren, who gained 4 points since a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey conducted last month. The Massachusetts senator saw her support among black voters, a key Democratic voting bloc, more than double, ticking up from 6 percent in August to 13 percent at the end of September.

She also saw a 6-point gain among white voters, jumping from 15 percent in August to 21 percent in September, the poll shows. Biden, meanwhile, lost 10 points among white voters, falling from 35 percent last month to 25 percent now.

“We confirm that Biden is holding on, but Warren is surging as she develops a national following within the primary electorate,” Mark PennMark PennPoll: 30 percent of Americans say they approve of the job Congress is doing Majority of voters say Biden is unable to handle issues with Russia, China: poll Biden approval rating hits new low: poll MORE, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, said. “The Sanders campaign could be in real trouble if they do not stem the tide soon.”

The poll follows on the heels of a slew of other surveys showing Warren taking the lead from Biden. A Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll released last weekend showed her at 22 percent support, edging out Biden at 20 percent. And a Monmouth University poll found her leading Biden in New Hampshire, 27 percent to 25 percent.

Likewise, a Quinnipiac University national poll released on Wednesday showed Warren leading the pack with 27 percent support. Biden came in second place in that survey, with 25 percent support.

Still, the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released on Thursday showed that a plurality of voters — 34 percent — perceive Biden as the candidate with the best chance of defeating President TrumpDonald TrumpDeputy AG: DOJ investigating fake Trump electors Former Boston Red Sox star David Ortiz elected to Baseball Hall of Fame Overnight Health Care — Senators unveil pandemic prep overhaul MORE in 2020. Sanders and Warren are statistically tied for second place on that front, scoring 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll surveyed 693 registered Democratic voters from Sept. 22-24. The poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll. The Hill will be working with Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll throughout 2019.

Full poll results will be posted online later this week. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.