Biden, Warren in dead heat in New Hampshire: poll

Biden, Warren in dead heat in New Hampshire: poll
© Getty

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenOmar fires back at Trump over rally remarks: 'This is my country' Trump mocks Biden appearance, mask use ahead of first debate Trump attacks Omar for criticizing US: 'How did you do where you came from?' MORE and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenHarris joins women's voter mobilization event also featuring Pelosi, Gloria Steinem, Jane Fonda Judd Gregg: The Kamala threat — the Californiaization of America GOP set to release controversial Biden report MORE (D-Mass.) are locked in a virtual dead heat in New Hampshire, according to a new Saint Anselm College poll released Tuesday.

Warren gets the support of 25 percent of registered New Hampshire voters in the poll, an 8-point bump since the same poll in July, while Biden gets 24 percent support, a 3-point rise since July. Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersButtigieg stands in as Pence for Harris's debate practice Bernie Sanders warns of 'nightmare scenario' if Trump refuses election results Harris joins women's voter mobilization event also featuring Pelosi, Gloria Steinem, Jane Fonda MORE (I-Vt.) comes in at third with 11 percent, a one-point boost since July, with South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegButtigieg stands in as Pence for Harris's debate practice Hillicon Valley: FBI, DHS warn that foreign hackers will likely spread disinformation around election results | Social media platforms put muscle into National Voter Registration Day | Trump to meet with Republican state officials on tech liability shield Facebook takes down Chinese network targeting Philippines, Southeast Asia and the US MORE following at 10 percent, a two-point drop from the summer.

ADVERTISEMENT

No other candidate polls in the double digits, but the poll sounds particularly loud alarm bells for Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisButtigieg stands in as Pence for Harris's debate practice First presidential debate to cover coronavirus, Supreme Court Harris joins women's voter mobilization event also featuring Pelosi, Gloria Steinem, Jane Fonda MORE (D-Calif.), who fell from 18 percent in July to 5 percent in September.

“With campaign season in full swing, the Saint Anselm College Survey Center’s fall poll of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary field shows Elizabeth Warren building on her momentum from the summer, while Kamala Harris and Andrew YangAndrew YangDoctor who allegedly assaulted Evelyn Yang arrested on federal charges The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden weighs in on police shootings | Who's moderating the debates | Trump trails in post-convention polls Buttigieg launches his own podcast MORE have been unable to hold onto their July debate bounce,” said New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque.

The Saint Anselm survey comes as Warren continues to surge in national and statewide surveys, cementing her lead over Sanders, her chief progressive rival, and leapfrogging Biden in a handful of polls.

The race in the Granite State’s primary remains fluid, with 57 percent of respondents saying their decision can change. However, Warren appears to have the widest crossover appeal, with 26 percent of those voters saying they could change their minds saying they’d likely switch to the Massachusetts Democrat, more than doubling that same figure for Biden (12 percent). 

“This suggests that when the field begins to winnow down, Warren may in the best position to pick up other candidates’ support,” said Levesque.

The difference between Warren and Biden is largely strategic, with respondents saying by a 27-19 margin that Warren would make a better president but responding by a 37-26 margin that Biden is the strongest candidate to take on President TrumpDonald John TrumpOmar fires back at Trump over rally remarks: 'This is my country' Pelosi: Trump hurrying to fill SCOTUS seat so he can repeal ObamaCare Trump mocks Biden appearance, mask use ahead of first debate MORE

“There remain several months before New Hampshire Democrats cast their primary ballots, but Warren and Biden have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the field,” Levesque said. “If the dynamic of Warren as the candidate that best expresses Democratic voters’ policy preferences and Biden as the one who has the best chance of beating Trump sets in with voters, this is likely turning into a two-person race absent a big shake-up.”

The Saint Anselm College poll surveyed 423 New Hampshire registered voters from Sept. 25-29 and has a margin of error of 4.8 percent.