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Poll: Generic ballot shows Democrats with 7-point lead

Poll: Generic ballot shows Democrats with 7-point lead
© Greg Nash

Democrats hold a 7-point advantage over Republicans in the generic 2020 congressional ballot, according to the latest Economist-YouGov weekly tracking poll. 

Democrats have a 47 percent to 40 percent lead over Republicans in Wednesday’s survey when respondents were asked which candidate they would choose for their district if the election were held today, with another 9 percent of registered voters saying they are unsure.

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The poll marks a similar result from last week’s tracking poll in which Democrats had a 47 percent to 39 percent lead over the GOP. The 1-point week-to-week difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.

Democrats ran up the score among historically supportive demographics in Wednesday’s survey, holding an 18-point lead among respondents aged 18-29, a 59-point advantage among African American voters and an 8-point edge among Hispanic voters.

The party also took a bite out of traditionally GOP-leaning constituencies, pulling even among voters making more than $100,000 per year and cutting the Republican lead to 2 points among voters aged 65 years and older, 3 points among white voters and 1 point among men. 

The two parties are running neck-and-neck among independent voters, splitting the total by a 35 percent to 36 percent margin. However, in a sign that many voters remain flexible as the 2020 cycle heats up, 20 percent of independents polled said they are not sure who they’d vote for if the election were held today.

Democrats are increasingly expected to keep their control of the House next year, though they face an uphill battle in toppling the GOP’s 53-47 majority of the Senate. Republicans are only defending a handful of competitive Senate seats while planning to go on the offensive to unseat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in ruby-red Alabama. 

The Economist-YouGov weekly poll surveyed 1,087 registered voters from Sept. 28-Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.