House GOP battleground poll finds opponents narrowly outnumber impeachment supporters

Internal polling from the House Republican campaign arm finds narrow opposition to impeachment across the key districts that will determine the balance of power in the House in 2020.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) conducted a survey of registered voters in key House battlegrounds, and found that in Democratic-held target districts, 47 percent oppose impeachment, against 44 percent who support it. In GOP-held swing districts, 49 percent oppose impeachment and 46 percent support it.


The NRCC did not release the full polling data, but The Hill obtained a one-page summary authored by polling director Caitlin Reed.

The memo said that 63 percent of respondents believe Democrats are “obsessed” with impeaching President TrumpDonald John TrumpGOP senators balk at lengthy impeachment trial Warren goes local in race to build 2020 movement 2020 Democrats make play for veterans' votes MORE and should instead focus on issues such as lower prescription drug prices or overhauling the nation’s infrastructure.

Fifty-two percent of respondents in the contested districts believe that impeaching Trump is the top priority for congressional Democrats. That’s at odds with voter priorities, as the poll found immigration and the economy are the top concerns among respondents in those districts.

Democrats have been encouraged by early polling that has shown a shift in public opinion toward impeaching Trump after revelations he pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenGOP senators balk at lengthy impeachment trial 2020 Democrats make play for veterans' votes 2020 Dems put focus on stemming veteran suicides MORE.

However, much of the early movement in the polls has been due to Democrats rallying behind impeachment, although there has been some movement among independents, who are largely split on the matter.

The NRCC survey found that 80 percent of Democrats support impeachment, while 51 percent of independents in the targeted districts oppose impeachment.

Democrats had been hesitant to launch an impeachment inquiry, largely because they were worried about the electoral consequences of a dramatic showdown with the White House only 13 months out from Election Day.

Republicans need to pick up 19 seats to win back the House and there are 44 “front-line” Democrats that the party considers to be the most vulnerable in 2020.

Rep. Tom EmmerThomas (Tom) Earl EmmerGeorge Papadopoulos launches campaign to run for Katie Hill's congressional seat Shimkus says he's been asked to reconsider retirement Walden retirement adds to GOP election woes MORE (R-Minn.), the chairman of the NRCC, has predicted that impeachment would cost the Democrats their majority in the House.

The online survey of 800 voters in Republican-held or NRCC target districts was conducted between Sept. 28 and Sept. 30 and has a 3.46 percentage point margin of error.