Democrats lead Trump by wide margins in Minnesota

A week after President TrumpDonald John TrumpButtigieg surges ahead of Iowa caucuses Biden leads among Latino Democrats in Texas, California Kavanaugh hailed by conservative gathering in first public speech since confirmation MORE held a big rally in Minneapolis, a new poll shows his campaign has a long way to go before it puts Minnesota in play in next year’s general election.
 
The survey, conducted by Mason-Dixon on behalf of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, shows each of four tested Democratic candidates leading Trump by wide margins.
 
The poll shows former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenButtigieg surges ahead of Iowa caucuses GOP eager for report on alleged FBI surveillance abuse Biden leads among Latino Democrats in Texas, California MORE leading Trump by a 50 percent to 38 percent margin. Trump trails Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenButtigieg surges ahead of Iowa caucuses Biden leads among Latino Democrats in Texas, California Following school shooting, Biden speaks out: 'We have to protect these kids' MORE (D-Mass.) 51 percent to 40 percent, and Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersButtigieg surges ahead of Iowa caucuses Biden leads among Latino Democrats in Texas, California On The Money: Trump appeals to Supreme Court to keep tax returns from NY prosecutors | Pelosi says deal on new NAFTA 'imminent' | Mnuchin downplays shutdown threat | Trump hits Fed after Walmart boasts strong earnings MORE (I-Vt.) 49 percent to 40 percent.
 
Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean Klobuchar 2020 Democrats demand action on guns after Santa Clarita shooting Hillicon Valley: Federal inquiry opened into Google health data deal | Facebook reports millions of post takedowns | Microsoft shakes up privacy debate | Disney plus tops 10M sign-ups in first day Federal inquiry opened into Google health data deal MORE (D-Minn.) would win her home state among respondents by the widest margin — she takes 55 percent of the vote against Trump’s 38 percent.
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All four of the Democrats hold leads over Trump among male respondents and among independents. They all take more than 50 percent of the vote among women surveyed. And they lead Trump by margins of 44 percentage points to 51 percentage points in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, the two most populous in the state.
 
Trump runs competitively with or just ahead of Democrats in the Twin City suburbs and in the rural north and south. Klobuchar is the only Democratic candidate running even or ahead of Trump outside the Twin Cities.
 
Republicans have long seen Minnesota as a potential to grow their path to the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House. The 2008 Republican convention was held in the Twin Cities, where then-Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCain2020 Democrats make play for veterans' votes The Memo: Democrats confront prospect of long primary Defending their honor as we hear their testimony MORE (R-Ariz.) accepted his party’s presidential nomination. Trump lost the state to Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonJordan calls Pelosi accusing Trump of bribery 'ridiculous' DOJ watchdog won't let witnesses submit written feedback on investigation into Russia probe: report What are Republicans going to do after Donald Trump leaves office? MORE by just 45,000 votes in 2016.
 
But Minnesota has the longest unbroken streak of voting Democratic in presidential contests of any state in the nation. The last Republican to win its electoral votes was Richard Nixon in 1972.
 
Still, Minnesota is changing rapidly, illustrated by tectonic shifts during the 2018 midterm elections. Last year, Democrats Dean PhillipsDean PhillipsUSMCA deal close, but not 'imminent,' Democrats say Democrats lead Trump by wide margins in Minnesota Democrats eye Pompeo testimony MORE and Angie Craig won two Republican-held House seats in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, while Republicans captured two ancestrally Democratic seats, one in the Iron Range and one in rural southern Minnesota.
 
The Mason-Dixon poll, conducted October 14-16, surveyed 800 registered voters for a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.