Biden, Warren and Sanders statistically tied in national poll

Biden, Warren and Sanders statistically tied in national poll
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A new national survey finds former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump renews culture war, putting GOP on edge Atlanta mayor says she has tested positive for COVID-19 Trump downplaying sparks new criticism of COVID-19 response MORE and Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenTrump criticizes Redskins, Indians over potential name changes The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump wants schools to reopen, challenged on 'harmless' COVID-19 remark Judd Gregg: The coming Biden coup MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersMilitary madness in the age of COVID-19 Will Twitter make @RealDonaldTrump a one-term president? Judd Gregg: The coming Biden coup MORE (I-Vt.) statistically tied for the lead in the race to face President TrumpDonald John TrumpCNN's Anderson Cooper: Trump's Bubba Wallace tweet was 'racist, just plain and simple' Beats by Dre announces deal with Bubba Wallace, defends him after Trump remarks Overnight Defense: DOD reportedly eyeing Confederate flag ban | House military spending bill blocks wall funding MORE in 2020.

The latest poll from Monmouth University finds Biden and Warren each receiving the support of 23 percent of respondents, with Sanders close behind at 20 percent. The survey of Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, putting the top three candidates in a statistical dead heat.

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Sanders gained the most from the same survey last month, surging 5 points, while Warren lost 5 points and Biden lost 2 points.

Rounding out the top eight are the rising South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegDemocratic lawmakers call for expanding, enshrining LGBTQ rights Democrats debate Biden effort to expand map against Trump The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Dems, GOP dig in on police reform ahead of House vote MORE at 9 percent, who picked up 5 points from last month; Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump wants schools to reopen, challenged on 'harmless' COVID-19 remark Judd Gregg: The coming Biden coup Susan Rice sees stock rise in Biden VP race MORE (D-Calif.) at 5 percent; Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerSenators push foreign media to disclose if they are registered as foreign agents Joe Biden must release the results of his cognitive tests — voters need to know GOP senators debate replacing Columbus Day with Juneteenth as a federal holiday MORE (D-N.J.) and tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangBiden campaign to take over 'Supernatural' star's Instagram for interview Hillicon Valley: Justice Department announces superseding indictment against WikiLeaks' Assange | Facebook ad boycott gains momentum | FBI sees spike in coronavirus-related cyber threats | Boston city government bans facial recognition technology The Hill's Campaign Report: Progressives feel momentum after primary night MORE at 3 percent each and Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: QAnon scores wins, creating GOP problem | Supreme Court upholds regulation banning robocalls to cellphones | Foreign hackers take aim at homebound Americans | Uber acquires Postmates Senate Democrats urge Pompeo to ensure Americans living overseas can vote in November The Hill's Coronavirus Report: The Hill's Reid Wilson says political winners are governors who listened to scientists and public health experts; 12 states record new highs for seven-day case averages MORE (D-Minn.) at 2 percent.

“It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place. This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet.”

Democratic voters were asked to rate the candidates on a scale of zero to 10 as to the likelihood of defeating Trump, with 10 being the likeliest.

Biden is still viewed as the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head match-up with Trump, with 51 percent of Democratic voters rating him at 8, 9 or 10. Biden’s average score is 7.3, down from 7.7 in June.

But Warren and Sanders have closed the electability gap, with Warren rising from 6.4 in June to 7.1 presently, and Sanders averaging a 7, up from 6.5.

Among all voters, only 42 percent said Trump should be reelected in 2020, with 55 percent saying it’s time for someone new.

But those numbers have improved for Trump since House Democrats launched an impeachment inquiry. The same survey from August found that just 39 percent said Trump should be reelected and 57 percent said it was time for someone new.

“It’s important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic,” said Murray. “Voter opinion remains baked in.” 

The Monmouth University survey of 835 registered voters nationwide has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The survey of 345 Democrats has a 5.3 percentage-point margin of error. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3.