Biden, Warren and Sanders statistically tied in national poll

Biden, Warren and Sanders statistically tied in national poll
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A new national survey finds former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenKamala Harris receives new Iowa endorsements after debate performance Watergate prosecutor says that Sondland testimony was 'tipping point' for Trump Overnight Defense — Presented by Boeing — Deal on defense bill proves elusive | Hill, Holmes offer damaging testimony | Trump vows to block Navy from ousting officer from SEALs MORE and Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenKamala Harris receives new Iowa endorsements after debate performance Warren speech in Georgia interrupted by pro-charter school protesters Hillicon Valley: Senators ask Trump to halt Huawei licenses | Warren criticizes Zuckerberg over secret dinner with Trump | Senior DHS cyber official to leave | Dems offer bill on Libra oversight MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernie SandersKamala Harris receives new Iowa endorsements after debate performance Wasserman Schultz makes bid for House Appropriations Committee gavel Overnight Health Care: Crunch time for Congress on surprise medical bills | CDC confirms 47 vaping-related deaths | Massachusetts passes flavored tobacco, vaping products ban MORE (I-Vt.) statistically tied for the lead in the race to face President TrumpDonald John TrumpWatergate prosecutor says that Sondland testimony was 'tipping point' for Trump In private moment with Trump, Justice Kennedy pushed for Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: book Obama: 'Everybody needs to chill out' about differences between 2020 candidates MORE in 2020.

The latest poll from Monmouth University finds Biden and Warren each receiving the support of 23 percent of respondents, with Sanders close behind at 20 percent. The survey of Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, putting the top three candidates in a statistical dead heat.

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Sanders gained the most from the same survey last month, surging 5 points, while Warren lost 5 points and Biden lost 2 points.

Rounding out the top eight are the rising South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegButtigieg campaign field organizers unionize Harris: Buttigieg comparing 'struggles' between black, LGBTQ communities is 'a bit naive' Poll: Trump edges Biden, trails Sanders in neck and neck match-ups MORE at 9 percent, who picked up 5 points from last month; Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisKamala Harris receives new Iowa endorsements after debate performance On The Money: Trump signs short-term spending bill to avoid shutdown | Pelosi casts doubt on USMCA deal in 2019 | California high court strikes down law targeting Trump tax returns Democratic strategist laments 'low bar' for Biden debate performance MORE (D-Calif.) at 5 percent; Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerBooker hits fundraising threshold for December debate after surge of post-debate donations Bicameral group of Democrats introduces bill to protect immigrant laborers The Hill's Morning Report - Sondland stuns; Dems pull punches in fifth debate MORE (D-N.J.) and tech entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangPoll: Biden and Sanders tied nationally, followed by Warren The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Johnson & Johnson — Witness dismisses 'fictional' GOP claims of Ukraine meddling Yang says white supremacist violence should be designated domestic terrorism MORE at 3 percent each and Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy Jean KlobucharA free college tradeoff — what should the 2020 candidates promise? Booker hits fundraising threshold for December debate after surge of post-debate donations The Hill's Morning Report - Sondland stuns; Dems pull punches in fifth debate MORE (D-Minn.) at 2 percent.

“It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place. This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet.”

Democratic voters were asked to rate the candidates on a scale of zero to 10 as to the likelihood of defeating Trump, with 10 being the likeliest.

Biden is still viewed as the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head match-up with Trump, with 51 percent of Democratic voters rating him at 8, 9 or 10. Biden’s average score is 7.3, down from 7.7 in June.

But Warren and Sanders have closed the electability gap, with Warren rising from 6.4 in June to 7.1 presently, and Sanders averaging a 7, up from 6.5.

Among all voters, only 42 percent said Trump should be reelected in 2020, with 55 percent saying it’s time for someone new.

But those numbers have improved for Trump since House Democrats launched an impeachment inquiry. The same survey from August found that just 39 percent said Trump should be reelected and 57 percent said it was time for someone new.

“It’s important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic,” said Murray. “Voter opinion remains baked in.” 

The Monmouth University survey of 835 registered voters nationwide has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The survey of 345 Democrats has a 5.3 percentage-point margin of error. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3.