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Biden, Warren and Sanders statistically tied in national poll

A new national survey finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) statistically tied for the lead in the race to face President Trump in 2020.

The latest poll from Monmouth University finds Biden and Warren each receiving the support of 23 percent of respondents, with Sanders close behind at 20 percent. The survey of Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points, putting the top three candidates in a statistical dead heat.

Sanders gained the most from the same survey last month, surging 5 points, while Warren lost 5 points and Biden lost 2 points.

Rounding out the top eight are the rising South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9 percent, who picked up 5 points from last month; Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) at 5 percent; Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 3 percent each and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) at 2 percent.

"It is interesting that these results look a lot like what was considered an outlier poll back in August," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. "But the current numbers are not an outlier with other recent national polls being all over the place. This is just another reminder that there is no such thing as a national primary. Most of the voters we talk to right now are not really anchoring their choices to an actual election decision just yet."

Democratic voters were asked to rate the candidates on a scale of zero to 10 as to the likelihood of defeating Trump, with 10 being the likeliest.

Biden is still viewed as the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head match-up with Trump, with 51 percent of Democratic voters rating him at 8, 9 or 10. Biden's average score is 7.3, down from 7.7 in June.

But Warren and Sanders have closed the electability gap, with Warren rising from 6.4 in June to 7.1 presently, and Sanders averaging a 7, up from 6.5.

Among all voters, only 42 percent said Trump should be reelected in 2020, with 55 percent saying it's time for someone new.

But those numbers have improved for Trump since House Democrats launched an impeachment inquiry. The same survey from August found that just 39 percent said Trump should be reelected and 57 percent said it was time for someone new.

"It's important not to read too much into differences within the margin of error. But the fact that there is no significant change in the current results suggests that the opening salvo of the House impeachment inquiry has had little impact on the overall 2020 dynamic," said Murray. "Voter opinion remains baked in." 

The Monmouth University survey of 835 registered voters nationwide has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The survey of 345 Democrats has a 5.3 percentage-point margin of error. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 3.

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