Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergDemocrats' combative approach to politics is doing more harm than good Battling over Biden's agenda: A tale of two Democratic parties Budget impasses mark a critical turning point in Biden's presidency MORE is viewed as the Democrat most likely to defeat President TrumpDonald TrumpMcAuliffe takes tougher stance on Democrats in Washington Democrats troll Trump over Virginia governor's race Tom Glavine, Ric Flair, Doug Flutie to join Trump for Herschel Walker event MORE if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.
However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
"Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent," the study states.
The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenPressure grows for breakthrough in Biden agenda talks State school board leaves national association saying they called parents domestic terrorists Sunday shows preview: Supply chain crisis threaten holiday sales; uncertainty over whether US can sustain nationwide downward trend in COVID-19 cases MORE are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.
"Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress," the researchers wrote.
Bloomberg, who is self-funding his campaign, has not appeared in the Democratic debates since launching his campaign in late November, as he has failed to meet the donor threshold set by the Democratic National Committee. Still, he has polled near the middle of the primary field.
The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.
The researchers wrote that Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersPressure grows for breakthrough in Biden agenda talks Sanders, Manchin escalate fight over .5T spending bill Sanders blames media for Americans not knowing details of Biden spending plan MORE's (I-Vt.) chances of winning the general election are rising in online markets and are slightly behind Biden's, while Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenMisguided recusal rules lock valuable leaders out of the Pentagon Biden's soft touch with Manchin, Sinema frustrates Democrats Hillicon Valley — Presented by LookingGlass — Congress makes technology policy moves MORE (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) "look to have relatively low odds of beating Trump" if nominated.
Trump, according to their findings, has a 55 to 60 percent chance of winning, a more significant shot than any Democrat. Incumbents typically have an electoral advantage as long as the economy is perceived as reliable, researchers noted.
Trump looks to be rising both in his conditional electability and in online markets' assessment of his "absolute electoral odds," wrote researchers, adding that investors appear to have rising confidence that federal policy will be U.S. market-friendly.
"It may be too early for asset markets to respond to the ups and downs of the nomination process. Moreover, even though candidates have stated positions, investors may be discounting the follow-through once elected," the research noted.
"Elected officials often do not implement their positions, and with a split Congress (online markets give about a 70% chance that the House stays Democratic and the Senate Republican), the President may not be able to push through his/her agenda," it added.