Sanders opens up 15-point lead in New Hampshire: Poll

Sanders opens up 15-point lead in New Hampshire: Poll
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Vermont Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersBiden endorses Texas Democratic House candidate Julie Oliver Ocasio-Cortez rolls out Twitch channel to urge voting Calls grow for Democrats to ramp up spending in Texas MORE (I) has separated from the pack of Democratic White House hopefuls in New Hampshire, opening up a 15-point lead over the next closest contender, according to a new poll.

The latest American Research Group (ARG) survey finds Sanders in first place at 28 percent support, followed by former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump and advisers considering firing FBI director after election: WaPo Obama to campaign for Biden in Florida Supreme Court reinstates ban on curbside voting in Alabama MORE at 13, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegLGBTQ voters must show up at the polls, or risk losing progress Buttigieg says it's time to 'turn the page' on Trump administration Sunday shows preview: Coronavirus cases surge in the Midwest; Trump hits campaign trail after COVID-19 MORE at 12 and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenBiden endorses Texas Democratic House candidate Julie Oliver Democratic senators unveil bill to ban discrimination in financial services industry Obama endorses Espy in Mississippi Senate race MORE (D-Mass.) at 11. Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardHarris faces biggest moment in spotlight yet Ocasio-Cortez slams Tulsi Gabbard for amplifying ballot harvesting video Republicans call on DOJ to investigate Netflix over 'Cuties' film MORE (D-Hawaii) comes in at 8 percent support, followed by Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharDurbin signals he isn't interested in chairing Judiciary Committee Democrats seem unlikely to move against Feinstein Senate Democrats call for ramped up Capitol coronavirus testing MORE (D-Minn.) at 7 percent.

Six percent of Democratic and independent voters in New Hampshire say they’re undecided.


The ARG survey shows Sanders with a larger lead than other recent polls have found. Sanders leads by 8 points in New Hampshire in the RealClearPolitics average, with the other most recent surveys finding him ahead by between 5 points and 12 points.

New Hampshire can be difficult to survey because of uncertainty about how many undeclared voters will turn out for the Democratic primary on Election Day.

For instance, Gabbard’s share of the vote is higher in the ARG poll than in any other survey because of her strong support from independent voters. The Hawaii Democrat pulls only 3 percent support in this survey from Democrats but has 15 percent among undeclared voters.

New Hampshire is peculiar in that it has about 413,000 undeclared voters, compared with 288,000 registered Republicans and 275,000 registered Democrats.

The undeclared voters can participate in the Democratic primary.


Sanders has a 15-point lead over Biden among Democrats, and he leads Buttigieg by 7 points among undeclared voters.

The Vermont senator has a massive lead of 32 points among voters aged 18 to 44. Among voters 45 and older, Sanders is at 19 percent support, followed by Biden at 17 percent.

Sanders has a 9-point lead over Biden among men and a 10 point lead over Warren among women.

The American Research Group survey of 335 Democrats and 265 undeclared voters in New Hampshire was conducted between Jan. 24 and Jan. 27 and has a 4 percentage point margin of error.

Updated 4:49 p.m.