Mini-Super Tuesday: Where Biden and Sanders stand in polls
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will face off in six primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, a week after the Democratic race was changed dramatically when Biden won 10 victories on this year’s Super Tuesday.
Biden is enjoying a surge of momentum after his victories, and Sanders is looking to turn the contest around once again by defeating the former vice president in Michigan and other states.
The two candidates also will battle it out in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington, which combined will assign 352 pledged delegates on March 10.
Here are what polls show in each of the states holding their nominating contests this Tuesday:
Michigan will be the top prize on Tuesday, with its primary handing out 125 pledged delegates.
Biden and Sanders are on track for a fierce battle in the Wolverine State as they fight for the support of crucial white working-class voters that helped swing Michigan and other Rust Belt states for President Trump in 2016.
The two have swapped leads in recent polls, with a University of Wisconsin/State Journal poll showing Sanders with a 9-point lead and a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll showing Biden ahead by 6 points. However, the poll showing Sanders ahead was conducted before the former vice president’s resounding wins in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.
Biden has worked to rack up a number of endorsements of high-profile Michigan lawmakers, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and several House members.
Biden also appears to have an edge among key demographics in Michigan — the state has substantial amounts of African Americans and white suburbanites that helped power his Super Tuesday success.
While Sanders has performed better among Hispanics and younger voters, Latinos make up a negligible amount of Michigan’s population and turnout among voters aged 18-29 has not spiked as the Vermont lawmaker has predicted.
Sanders narrowly won the Wolverine State’s primary over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
No recent polls have been conducted for the Mississippi primary race, but Biden is the heavy favorite given his support among African American voters.
Clinton routed Sanders by more than 65 points in 2016, and it wouldn’t be unthinkable to see a similar result this Tuesday.
Biden won the endorsement of Rep. Bennie Thompson, the state’s only Democratic member of Congress.
Mississippi’s primary will award 36 pledged delegates.
Biden holds a narrow 4-point lead over Sanders in Missouri in a new Emerson College poll conducted this week. The survey shows Biden and Sanders tied among white voters, but the former vice president holds a 14-point edge among voters of color.
Sixty-eight pledged delegates will be allocated in the state’s primary. Sanders narrowly lost the state to Clinton in 2016 by fewer than 2,000 votes.
While Sanders has put his focus on Michigan, a key swing state contest in the general election, his best chance for a big victory might be here.
Sanders has leads in two recent polls in Washington state, though the state’s primary appears set to be more competitive than the surveys suggest.
The Vermont senator had a 6-point lead in an Crosscut/Elway Poll and a 5-point advantage in a January KING-TV/SurveyUSA survey. However, both polls showed former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) with double-digit support and were conducted before the two dropped out of the White House race.
Bloomberg has since endorsed Biden, and Warren, who just dropped out Thursday, has said she has not decided if or who she will endorse.
Another factor? Washington held a caucus in 2016, but has since shifted to a primary.
Sanders won the caucuses in 2016 handily, but the primary could be more competitive.
The contest will allocate 89 pledged delegates, making it the second biggest haul of the March 10 contests.
No recent polls have been conducted for the Idaho primary, which will allocate just 20 pledged delegates.
Sanders trounced Clinton in the contest in 2016, besting her by more than 55 points.
No recent polls have been conducted for North Dakota’s caucuses, which will apportion just 14 pledged delegates. It is tied with Wyoming for hosting the smallest nominating race in the continental United States.
Sanders won the state by nearly 40 points in 2016 over Clinton.
Updated: 8:33 p.m.
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