Here's where things stand 200 days before Election Day

Democrats are growing more confident about their chances of retaking power in Washington with 200 days to go before Election Day.

It’s an election that both sides now see as turning on the coronavirus pandemic and the American public’s views on how President TrumpDonald John TrumpWayfair refutes QAnon-like conspiracy theory that it's trafficking children Stone rails against US justice system in first TV interview since Trump commuted his sentence Federal appeals court rules Trump admin can't withhold federal grants from California sanctuary cities MORE steers the country through the worst public health crisis in modern memory.

Recent polls suggest a tight race, but also give Democrats hope that former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenThe Hill's Campaign Report: Runoff elections in Texas, Alabama set for Tuesday Biden campaign slams White House attacks on Fauci as 'disgusting' Biden lets Trump be Trump MORE can top Trump in states such as Florida and Arizona that are crucial to his reelection chances.

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Democrats are also feeling upbeat about the Senate, where a handful of races will determine whether they can wrest away control of the chamber from Republicans. 

Republicans, for their part, think the well-funded Trump campaign can help reelect the president to another four-year term, an outcome that would greatly increase the party’s chances of retaining the House majority.

And the GOP is hopeful a Trump win could provide the momentum needed to pick up 20 House seats and end Nancy PelosiNancy Pelosi70 progressive groups call for next Foreign Affairs chair to reflect 'progressive realism' House to vote next week on ridding Capitol of Confederate statues Eye on gavel, Wasserman Schultz proposes panel on racial inequality in spending MORE’s (D-Calif.) second Speakership.

Here’s a look at the three battlegrounds.

White House 

Biden has never seemed like an unbeatable candidate, to say the least.

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Polls show his supporters are not as enthusiastic as Trump’s, his gaffes are the stuff of legend and the progressive base of the Democratic Party was hoping other candidates would win the party’s primary.

Yet Democrats do have reason for optimism this week.

The party, desperate to end Trump’s presidency at one term, is uniting around the former vice president quickly.

Former President Obama, Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersOVERNIGHT ENERGY: EPA declines to tighten smog standards amid pressure from green groups | Democrats split on Trump plan to use development funds for nuclear projects| Russian mining giant reports another fuel spill in Arctic Biden lets Trump be Trump Democrats split on Trump plan to use development funds for nuclear projects MORE (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenIn politics, as in baseball, it ain't over till it's over Trump defends Roger Stone move: He was target of 'Witch Hunt' Democrats blast Trump for commuting Roger Stone: 'The most corrupt president in history' MORE (D-Mass.) have all endorsed Biden this week, giving him an advantage over 2016 nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillicon Valley: Wells Fargo tells employees to delete TikTok from work phones | Google, Facebook join legal challenge to ICE foreign students rule | House Republican introduces bills to bolster federal cybersecurity Biden lets Trump be Trump 4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch MORE, who didn’t see the party begin to unify around her candidacy until the summer.

Biden leads Trump in a number of national polls, as well as in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. 

Trump has a big cash advantage at this stage of the race, along with the power of incumbency.

But for the president, the key is almost certainly the coronavirus crisis and the recession it has caused.

Trump was hoping he would ride a strong economy into reelection. Now he must convince voters that his stewardship is the best to steer the country back to economic success.

He’s signaled he wants to begin opening the economy as quickly as possible. He’s also noted that U.S. deaths from the coronavirus are far lower than some projections, which the White House argues is evidence of the success of his policies.

Trump’s argument, an echo in some ways of former President George W. Bush’s in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, is that it would be wrong to change the nation’s leader at this critical time.

The coronavirus crisis also promises to make the election campaign uglier.

Trump has signaled he’ll make Biden’s age and his son Hunter Biden’s business in Ukraine campaign issues. He’s ripped Democrats on personal terms for opposing decisions he’s made during the battle against the pandemic.

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Biden and Democrats, for their part, will argue fewer Americans would have died if Trump had taken quicker action.

Senate 

Democrats must gain the White House and a net three seats to win back the Senate — an uphill climb that is not impossible.

In reality, Democrats probably need to take four Republican seats to win the Senate. Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) is a huge underdog in a state Trump is likely to sweep to victory in November.

That means Democrats will probably have to defeat Sens. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: Chris Christie says Trump team wasn't aggressive enough early in COVID-19 crisis; Tensions between White House, Fauci boil over Senate GOP hedges on attending Trump's convention amid coronavirus uptick Koch-backed group urges Senate to oppose 'bailouts' of states in new ads MORE, Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - All eyes on Florida as daily COVID-19 cases hit 15K Democrats seek to tie GOP candidates to Trump, DeVos Senate GOP hedges on attending Trump's convention amid coronavirus uptick MORE and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsMore Republicans should support crisis aid for the Postal Service GOP senators voice confidence over uphill Senate battle Republicans considering an outdoor stadium for Florida convention: report MORE in Arizona, Colorado and Maine, respectively, and then win a fourth seat as well.

In all three of those contests, Democrats seem to have a decent chance of winning.

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Gardner is in the fight of his political life. Not only has Colorado turned bluer in recent years, he’s facing a potential challenge from former Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperThe Hill's Campaign Report: Runoff elections in Texas, Alabama set for Tuesday The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - All eyes on Florida as daily COVID-19 cases hit 15K Democrats seek to tie GOP candidates to Trump, DeVos MORE, the prohibitive front-runner in the state's Senate Democratic primary.

In Arizona, McSally is up against Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut who has shattered fundraising records since launching his Senate bid early last year. McSally lost her state’s last Senate race in 2018 before Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed her to fill the vacant seat of the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainMcCain's reset: US-Vietnam relations going strong after 25 years Senate outlook slides for GOP Juan Williams: Time for boldness from Biden MORE (R-Ariz.). 

Collins is also in a tough race in a state where Biden will be favored to take electoral votes in November.

The best chance for Democrats to pull out a fourth victory might be in North Carolina, where Democrats think GOP Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisConservative group launches ad campaign for Rep. Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - All eyes on Florida as daily COVID-19 cases hit 15K Democrats seek to tie GOP candidates to Trump, DeVos MORE (N.C.) is vulnerable.

If they can’t win there, they may look to Iowa, where Democratic outside groups are spending millions to oust Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - All eyes on Florida as daily COVID-19 cases hit 15K Democrats seek to tie GOP candidates to Trump, DeVos Ernst: Renaming Confederate bases is the 'right thing to do' despite 'heck' from GOP MORE (R).

Republicans hope they can take out Sen. Gary PetersGary Charles PetersConservative group launches ad campaign for Rep. Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race Health care group launches M ad campaign hitting Trump in battleground states The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Trump wants schools to reopen, challenged on 'harmless' COVID-19 remark MORE (D), who has a relatively low name ID. Trump pulled a surprise win in the state in 2016, giving the GOP hope he could do so again and that his coattails could help down the ticket.

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Democrats believe that they may be able to bring three other states into play: Kentucky, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell in talks with Mnuchin on next phase of coronavirus relief Pelosi: 'We shouldn't even be thinking' about reopening schools without federal aid The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - All eyes on Florida as daily COVID-19 cases hit 15K MORE (R) is facing a well-funded Democratic opponent in Amy McGrath; Texas, where Democrats are energized after a near-win against Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Hill's Campaign Report: Runoff elections in Texas, Alabama set for Tuesday American Airlines reviewing photographs of Sen. Cruz on flight without a mask 4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch MORE (R) in 2018; and Georgia, where both of the state’s Republican senators, David Perdue and Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerThe Hill's Campaign Report: Is Georgia reaching a tipping point? Democrats hope for tidal moment in Georgia with two Senate seats in play GOP senators voice confidence over uphill Senate battle MORE, will face voters in November.

Each of those states will likely prove challenging for Democrats, and party operatives concede that while their chances there have improved, they’re still a reach. 

House

The House is the least likely chamber to flip in the general election.

Republicans need a net gain of 20 seats to take back the majority. Republicans also have to take into account the redistricting in North Carolina, which will endanger two GOP-held seats, as well as retiring Rep. Will HurdWilliam Ballard Hurd4 Texas GOP congressional primary runoffs to watch OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Key impeachment witness retires | Duckworth presses for information | Subpanel advances defense measure | Democrats press for end to military transgender ban Karen Bass's star rises after leading police reform push MORE’s (R-Texas) district, which Democrats are favored to take. 

It would appear Republicans are well positioned with Democrats holding 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, but not all of those races are competitive. The Cook Political Report rates Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) district, which Trump won by 1.2 percentage points, as “lean Democratic.”

Meanwhile, Cook rates Reps. Mikie SherrillRebecca (Mikie) Michelle SherrillNew Jersey incumbents steamroll progressive challengers in primaries The Hill's Morning Report - Republicans shift, urge people to wear masks Gun control group rolls out House endorsements MORE's (D-N.J.) and Ron KindRonald (Ron) James KindBottom line Coronavirus culture war over reopening economy hits Capitol Hill How the GOP hopes to overcome steep odds in House battle MORE’s (D-Wis.) races as “likely Democratic.” Trump won Sherrill’s district by 1 point and Kind’s district by 4 points. 

Having Biden as their presumptive presidential nominee could also play to House Democrats’ advantage in November. Vulnerable House Democrats, such as Rep. Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamOvernight Defense: US formally rejects Beijing's South China Sea claims | House set to consider defense policy bill next week | 57 injured as firefighters battle warship blaze Congress pulls punches on Russian bounties firestorm Harrison goes on the attack against Graham in new South Carolina Senate ad MORE in South Carolina’s 1st District, had voiced concerns about the prospect of Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, at the top of the Democratic ticket. 

However, Republicans do hold an advantage in a number of key districts. Cook changed the rating for the race to fill former Rep. Katie HillKatherine (Katie) Lauren HillGaetz tweets photo of teenage adopted son after hearing battle The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by The American Investment Council - Trump takes his 'ready to reopen' mantra on the road The Hill's Campaign Report: Democrat concedes in California House race MORE’s (D-Calif.) district from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up”; California Assemblywoman Christie Smith (D) and former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia (R) will face off in the vote-by-mail special general election there on May 12. 

Rep. Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerOvernight Defense: US formally rejects Beijing's South China Sea claims | House set to consider defense policy bill next week | 57 injured as firefighters battle warship blaze Bipartisan lawmakers introduce bill to limit further expansion of 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force Trade groups make lobbying push to be included in small business loan program MORE’s (D-Va.) race in Virginia’s 7th District, which was also won by Trump in 2016, is considered a “toss-up” by Cook. The website also rates Rep. Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathPPP poll finds Biden leading in Georgia If Georgia primary was an attempt at voter suppression, it failed badly Floyd's brother urges Congress to take action MORE’s (D-Ga.) seat in Georgia’s 6th District as a “toss-up.” That district was won by Trump in 2016 and was formerly held by former Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelPPP poll finds Biden leading in Georgia Jon Ossoff to challenge David Perdue after winning Georgia Democratic primary The Hill's Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump MORE (R-Ga.), who is running again for the seat. 

The coronavirus pandemic could have the biggest impact on the race. The crisis has forced candidates in all races to resort to virtual campaigning.

Republican candidates could see an enthusiasm and fundraising advantage with Trump at the top of the ticket. However, Democrats will likely be given another opportunity to run on health care, an issue with which they solidly won the House in 2018.