The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

Five senators are staring down serious political danger ahead of the November elections.

With less than six months to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate hinges on five key states. Democrats are after four seats in particular — in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — while Republicans are largely playing defense, but see an easy pickup opportunity in Alabama.

A handful of seats in states like Iowa, Montana and Michigan are also showing signs they may be in play.

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Here are the Senate seats most likely to flip in 2020.

Doug Jones (D-Ala.)

Democrats are on the defensive in deep-red Alabama roughly three years after Jones defeated Republican Roy MooreRoy Stewart MooreRoy Moore loses lawsuit against Sacha Baron Cohen Shelby backs ex-aide over Trump-favored candidate in Alabama Senate race Of inmates and asylums: Today's House Republicans make the John Birchers look quaint MORE in the state’s special election to replace former Attorney General Jeff SessionsJefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsWant to evaluate Donald Trump's judgment? Listen to Donald Trump Democrat stalls Biden's border nominee Garland strikes down Trump-era immigration court rule, empowering judges to pause cases MORE. Jones was the first Democrat to win statewide office in Alabama since 2008 and the first Democrat to represent the state in the upper chamber since 1997.

Jones garnered about 50 percent of the vote in 2017, while Moore received about 48 percent. During the race, Moore had to contend with a cloud of controversy stemming from sexual assault allegations, which led to GOP leaders across the country calling for him to step down as the nominee.

However, Jones faces a totally different environment heading into the 2020 elections. The Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Republican” as Sessions and former Auburn University coach Tommy Tuberville battle it out ahead of the July 14 GOP runoff.

President TrumpDonald TrumpFormer New York state Senate candidate charged in riot Trump called acting attorney general almost daily to push election voter fraud claim: report GOP senator clashes with radio caller who wants identity of cop who shot Babbitt MORE, who has thrown his support behind Tuberville, is also popular in the state with a 53 percent approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Jones, on the other hand, had a 41 percent approval rating, according to a Morning Consult survey released in January.

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Still, Jones has had a successful streak of fundraising in recent quarters, giving him an advantage over the field of GOP candidates. He had over $8.2 million cash on hand at the beginning of April.

Cory GardnerCory GardnerEx-Sen. Cory Gardner joins lobbying firm Biden administration reverses Trump changes it says 'undermined' conservation program Gardner to lead new GOP super PAC ahead of midterms MORE (R-Colo.)

Gardner became the first challenger to unseat an incumbent in Colorado in roughly a generation when he defeated former Sen. Mark UdallMark Emery UdallKennedy apologizes for calling Haaland a 'whack job' OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Haaland courts moderates during tense confirmation hearing | GOP's Westerman looks to take on Democrats on climate change | White House urges passage of House public lands package Udalls: Haaland criticism motivated 'by something other than her record' MORE (D) in 2014.

But his state has shifted increasingly to the left in recent years. Former President Obama won the state twice in 2008 and 2012, and Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden says Russia spreading misinformation ahead of 2022 elections Highest-ranking GOP assemblyman in WI against another audit of 2020 vote Women's March endorses Nina Turner in first-ever electoral endorsement MORE carried it in the 2016 presidential election. In 2018, Democrats won control of the Colorado state Senate and held onto the governor’s mansion, giving them full control of the state government for the first time since 1936.

If that trend wasn’t enough to threaten Gardner’s prospects for a second term in the Senate, he faces an expectedly tough challenge from Colorado’s Democratic former governor, John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperManchin grills Haaland over Biden oil and gas moratorium It's time for US to get serious about cleaning up space junk Bipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor MORE, who jumped into the race last summer after an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

There hasn’t been much polling in the race, but a survey from the Montana State University and the University of Denver conducted last month showed Hickenlooper with a 16-point lead over Gardner. Another Keating Research–OnSight Public Affairs–Melanson poll released earlier this month found Hickenlooper ahead by 18 points.

Hickenlooper out-raised Gardner in the first quarter of 2020, raking in nearly $4.1 million to his opponent’s $2.5 million. Still, Gardner has the overall cash-on-hand advantage with $9.6 million in the bank.

Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallySchumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up GOP group launches million ad campaign pressing Kelly on filibuster Democrats facing tough reelections back bipartisan infrastructure deal MORE (R-Ariz.)

McSally already lost a Senate race in 2018, when Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) eked out a narrow 2-point win. Only a few weeks after her loss, McSally was appointed to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainMeghan McCain on Pelosi, McCarthy fight: 'I think they're all bad' Democrats seek to counter GOP attacks on gas prices Biden nominates Jeff Flake as ambassador to Turkey MORE (R-Ariz.).

Now, a little more than a year after she entered the Senate, she’s facing a challenge from Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut and gun control advocate who is seen as one of his party’s top recruits of the 2020 cycle. Kelly raised a staggering $11 million in the first three months of 2020 and has some $19.7 million on hand. By comparison, McSally reported $6.4 million raised in the first quarter and $10.3 million in the bank.

There are also signs that Kelly is widening his lead over McSally in the race. A survey from the polling firm OH Predictive Insights released this week showed Kelly leading McSally by 13 points — up from a 9-point lead in a similar poll conducted in April. Republicans are hoping to seize on questions about Kelly’s business record in an effort to weaken him ahead of November.

But unlike Colorado, where Democrats hold power at the state level, Arizona’s state government is largely controlled by the GOP. What’s more, Republicans have won every presidential election in the state since 2000, though Trump carried it in 2016 by a smaller margin than the three Republican nominees before him.

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Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsThe 17 Republicans who voted to advance the Senate infrastructure bill Senate votes to take up infrastructure deal Gyms, hotels, bus companies make last-ditch plea for aid MORE (R-Maine)

The moderate Republican is also facing an uphill battle to defend her spot in the Senate. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Collins 3 points behind state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), who is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.

Additionally, polling shows Maine voters could be souring on the incumbent senator. A Bangor Daily News poll released in April showed Collins with a 37 percent approval rating and a 52 percent disapproval rating.

Collins has been viewed in the past as a critical Republican swing vote, voting against 2017 GOP legislation to replace the Affordable Care Act. However, she has since received the ire of liberals for voting to confirm Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughAn obscure Supreme Court ruling is a cautionary tale of federal power Murkowski leans into record ahead of potentially bruising reelection bid Want to evaluate Donald Trump's judgment? Listen to Donald Trump MORE to the Supreme Court in 2018 as he faced sexual misconduct allegations.

However, the race will not necessarily be a cakewalk for the Democrats if Gideon gets the nomination. Collins has represented the state in the Senate since 1997, giving her an incumbent advantage. Additionally, her decisions to side with the Trump administration on a number of issues may not play badly with all voters. The state went Democratic in the last three presidential elections, but elected conservative Gov. Paul LePage twice.

Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisThe 17 Republicans who voted to advance the Senate infrastructure bill Senate votes to take up infrastructure deal GOP, Democrats battle over masks in House, Senate MORE (R-N.C.)

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Tillis is locked in a true toss-up race to hold on to his Senate seat. The first-term senator is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Cal Cunningham and polls show the two candidates in a dead heat.

One survey fielded by East Carolina University earlier this month showed Tillis narrowly leading Cunningham, 41 percent to 40 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error. But a Meredith College poll conducted late last month gave Cunningham a substantial lead in race, showing him ahead of Tillis, 44 percent to 34 percent.

Already, the race between Tillis and Cunningham is shaping up to be the most expensive Senate race of 2020. In March, the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell: 'It never occurred to me' convincing Americans to get vaccinated would be difficult The 17 Republicans who voted to advance the Senate infrastructure bill Senate votes to take up infrastructure deal MORE (R-Ky.), booked nearly $22 million worth of fall advertising in the state, making up the largest part of a broader $67 million investment.

Soon after that, the Senate Majority PAC, the top super PAC backing Democratic Senate candidates, reserved $25.6 million in fall ads in the state. That was also the largest portion of a nearly $70 million investment by the group.

Cunningham led Tillis in fundraising in the first three months of the year, bringing in about $4.4 million to his opponent’s $2.1 million. But Tillis has more than twice as much cash on hand as Cunningham, reporting about $6.5 million in the bank at the end of March.

Also in play:

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Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstGrassley pressured to run as Democrats set sights on Iowa Republicans focus tax hike opposition on capital gains change Biden signs bill to bolster crime victims fund MORE (R-Iowa)

For now, Ernst appears more likely than not to win a second term. But Democrats argue that the race is trending in their favor, pointing to polls fielded in recent months that show her approval rating ticking downward and The Cook Political Report’s decision in March to shift her race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Polling in the race has been scarce, but one survey released earlier this month by the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling showed Ernst leading her top Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by 1 point, tightening from 6 points in a similar poll fielded in December.

Ernst currently has the cash advantage over Greenfield. She raised $2.7 million in the first quarter of the year, while Greenfield raked in about $2.25 million. But in the pre-primary reporting period between April 1 and May 13, Greenfield raised about $1.5 million to Ernst’s $1.2 million. Still, Ernst leads in cash on hand, with about $7 million as of mid-May.

Kansas (Open)

The Cook Political Report rates the battle to replace retiring Sen. Pat RobertsCharles (Pat) Patrick RobertsBob Dole, Pat Roberts endorse Kansas AG Derek Schmidt for governor Ex-Sen. Cory Gardner joins lobbying firm Senate GOP faces retirement brain drain MORE (R-Kan.) as “lean Republican.” However, the party will first have to contend with a crowded primary before taking on former Republican-turned-Democrat Barbara Bollier. There are currently six Republicans running in the contest, with former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallAdvancing T-cell testing can help parents can make informed decisions on COVID vaccinations House GOP leaders say vaccine works but shouldn't be mandated Rand Paul introducing measure to repeal public transportation mask mandates MORE leading the way.

The primary’s outcome could be a deciding factor in the general election. If Kobach wins the primary, the news would likely be welcomed by Democrats. The former Kansas secretary of state does not have the support of the party’s establishment, and faced criticism from the National Republican Senatorial Committee after he announced his intent to run last year. Additionally, Kobach lost his last statewide race to Gov. Laura Kelly (D) in 2018. A poll released in April from Public Policy Polling showed Bollier beating Kobach by two points in a hypothetical match-up.

Meanwhile, a number of Republican leaders have signaled that they would be in favor of Secretary of State Mike PompeoMike PompeoNoem to travel to South Carolina for early voting event Poll: Trump leads 2024 GOP primary trailed by Pence, DeSantis Pence v. Biden on China: Competing but consistent visions MORE, a former Kansas congressman, to run for the spot. McConnell has pushed Pompeo to consider the opportunity.

"There's not been a development yet,” McConnell told Politico. “But he would obviously be my first choice and he has been for months.”

Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerSchumer, Tim Scott lead as Senate fundraising pace heats up Trump says Herschel Walker will enter Georgia Senate race WNBA announces zero COVID-19 positive tests, 99 percent fully vaccinated MORE (R-Ga.)

The race for Loeffler’s seat is more complicated than others up for a vote in 2020. She was appointed late last year to replace retired Sen. Johnny IsaksonJohnny IsaksonCritical race theory becomes focus of midterms Former Georgia ethics official to challenge McBath Loeffler meets with McConnell amid speculation of another Senate run MORE (R-Ga.), but because the special election will be a “jungle primary," she’ll face multiple challengers in November, including from within her own party.

Her top challenger on the right is Rep. Doug CollinsDouglas (Doug) Allen CollinsLoeffler meets with McConnell amid speculation of another Senate run Georgia agriculture commissioner launches Senate campaign against Warnock Poll shows tight GOP primary for Georgia governor MORE (R), a staunch Trump ally who leads Loeffler in most recent polls. At the same time, Loeffler has come under fire in recent months for her stock trades, which critics say appeared timed to avoid the economic turbulence brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Loeffler has denied wrongdoing, noting that her stock trades are made by a third-party adviser.

Meanwhile, national Democrats are backing the Rev. Raphael Warnock in the race for Loeffler’s seat. But there are other credible Democrats vying for the seat, including Matt Lieberman, an entrepreneur and the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).

Under state rules, if no candidate scores at least 50 percent of the vote in the November all-party election, it will trigger a runoff election between the two top vote-getters, currently slated for January.

Democrats are more hopeful about their chances in a runoff election, believing it will allow them to consolidate support around a single candidate in a head-to-head match-up against a Republican.

Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesSenate committee advances bipartisan energy infrastructure bill  Hillicon Valley: Lina Khan faces major FTC test | Amazon calls for her recusal | Warren taps commodities watchdog to probe Google Senators propose bill to help private sector defend against hackers MORE (R-Mont.)

Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve Bullock65 former governors, mayors back bipartisan infrastructure deal Arkansas, New Jersey governors to head National Governors Association Biden 'allies' painting him into a corner MORE (D) will likely take on Daines in that state’s Senate race, which The Cook Political Report rates “lean Republican.” However, Bullock was reelected to a second term as governor in 2016, the same year Trump won the state. Additionally, the state’s Democratic Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate votes to take up infrastructure deal GOP, Democrats battle over masks in House, Senate Sinema says she opposes .5T price tag for spending bill MORE won reelection in 2018 by roughly 4 points.

Moreover, Bullock is leading the field in fundraising and polling. A Montana State University poll released earlier this month showed Bullock with 46 percent support in the state, while Daines garnered 39 percent support.

On the fundraising front, Bullock brought in $2.5 million over the past six weeks, while Daines raised $1.3 million in the same period. Bullock and Daines have raised a total of $5.8 million and $9.2 million, respectively, for their campaigns.

Gary PetersGary PetersGOP, Democrats battle over masks in House, Senate Senate confirms Biden's Air Force secretary Here's evidence the Senate confirmation process is broken MORE (D-Mich.)

Republicans are rallying around businessman John James in their bid to unseat Peters in November. James out-raised the first-term senator in the first quarter of the year, and Republicans are continuing to tout Trump’s unexpected victory in the state in 2016. However, James has never won a statewide election, losing to Sen. Debbie StabenowDeborah (Debbie) Ann StabenowEnergy chief touts electric vehicle funding in Senate plan Senate passes bill to award Congressional Gold Medal to first Black NHL player The glass ceiling that diverse Senate staff still face MORE (D-Mich.) in 2018.

Peters, on the other hand, has been a player in Michigan’s political scene for years. He was elected to the state Senate in 1994 before he went on to become a U.S. congressman in 2008. He was elected to the Senate in 2014.

Polling also shows Peters with a clear advantage. A Fox News poll released last month showed Peters leading James by 10 points. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “lean Democratic.”

Updated at 10:16 a.m.