Engel trails primary challenger by 10 points: poll

A new poll shows Rep. Eliot EngelEliot Lance EngelOVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Administration notifies Congress it plans to approve F-35 sale to UAE | VMI votes to remove Stonewall Jackson statue after allegations of racism| House defense panel chairman: Trump has 'no plan' to leave Afghanistan by Christmas Administration notifies Congress it plans to approve F-35 sale to UAE On The Trail: The fallacy of a conclusive election night MORE (D-N.Y.) trailing his progressive challenger by 10 points just a week before New York voters pick their nominees, an ominous sign for a longtime incumbent whose district has changed markedly since he was first elected.

The survey, conducted by the progressive group Data for Progress, finds middle school principal Jamaal Bowman (D) leading Engel by a 41 percent to 31 percent margin. Twenty-seven percent of Democratic respondents in New York's 16th District remain undecided.

The poll shows Bowman building a big lead among women, voters under 45 years old and African Americans, who make up about a third of the residents in Engel's Bronx-based district. Engel leads by 22 points among white voters, and the two are close to tied among men.


The poll did not test three other Democrats whose names will appear on the ballot — attorney Chris Fink, former New York Police Department officer Sammy Ravelo and Andom Ghebreghiorgis, who has withdrawn and backs Bowman — but none of them are expected to take a significant portion of the vote.

Bowman, making his first run for office, won endorsements from Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersTlaib, Ocasio-Cortez offer bill to create national public banking system Cutting defense spending by 10 percent would debilitate America's military The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Election night could be a bit messy MORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren has expressed interest in being Biden's Treasury secretary: report The Democrats' 50 state strategy never reached rural America What a Biden administration should look like MORE (D-Mass.), and from the rising stars of an emerging generation of progressive members of Congress like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezOn The Money: McConnell says Congress will take up stimulus package at start of 2021 | Lawmakers see better prospects for COVID deal after election Tlaib, Ocasio-Cortez offer bill to create national public banking system 'Drink water and don't be racist': Ocasio-Cortez gives Republicans upset over Vanity Fair outfit 'pointers' on how to look better MORE (D-N.Y.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.). Groups like Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party and Brand New Congress back Bowman, while most unions have stuck with Engel.

Former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonTrump may continue to campaign after Election Day if results are not finalized: report Hillicon Valley: Biden campaign slams Facebook after thousands of ads blocked | Majority of voters in three swing states saw ads on social media questioning election validity: poll | Harris more often the target of online misinformation Analysis: Where the swing states stand in Trump-Biden battle MORE and the Congressional Black Caucus both back Engel, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The New York Times editorial board endorsed Bowman.

Engel's district has changed markedly from the seat he first won in 1988. Back then, just 11 percent of the population was African American, and 13 percent was Hispanic. Today, just under one-third of district residents are white.

But Engel has run a lackluster campaign, even amid signs that progressives were making inroads in New York districts where longtime incumbents were sitting on their laurels.


Two years ago, Ocasio-Cortez, an unknown progressive challenger, ousted another New York Democrat, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joseph Crowley (D). This year, Reps. Nita LoweyNita Sue LoweyOffice of Special Counsel widens Pompeo probe into Hatch Act violations  Finger-pointing picks up in COVID-19 relief fight Top House Democrats call for watchdog probe into Pompeo's Jerusalem speech MORE (D) and José Serrano (D) both retired in the face of almost certain primary challenges, while other longtime New York City representatives like Carolyn MaloneyCarolyn Bosher MaloneyTop Interior official retaliated against whistleblower, watchdog says Documents show 'political' nature of Trump COVID ad campaign, lawmakers say Trump, House lawyers return to court in fight over subpoena for financial records MORE (D) and Jerrold Nadler (D) have mounted aggressive campaigns.

The poll, conducted June 11-15, surveyed 525 likely Democratic primary voters contacted online and by text message. The survey had a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.

--This report was updated at 11:53 a.m.