Poll finds Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania

Poll finds Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania
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Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenThe West needs a more collaborative approach to Taiwan Abbott's medical advisers were not all consulted before he lifted Texas mask mandate House approves George Floyd Justice in Policing Act MORE leads President TrumpDonald TrumpHouse passes voting rights and elections reform bill DEA places agent seen outside Capitol during riot on leave Georgia Gov. Kemp says he'd 'absolutely' back Trump as 2024 nominee MORE by 5 points in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll.

The latest survey from The Trafalgar Group finds Biden at 48 percent and Trump at 42.7 percent. The survey found that 6.4 percent of voters said they’d vote for someone else and 3 percent are undecided.

Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.3 points in 2016. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since 1988.


The Trafalgar poll is in line with other recent surveys of Pennsylvania. Biden leads there by 6.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

Trafalgar’s recent surveys of other battlegrounds show a tighter race for the White House than other pollsters have found.

Trafalgar found Trump leading Biden 45.5 percent to 44.6 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Trafalgar put Biden’s lead about 1 point.

The Trafalgar group weights its polls to account for “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they support the president. The firm is not revealing how it accounts for those voters, although in 2016 they did it by asking voters who they thought their neighbors might be supporting.

Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly has told The Hill that he believes there are more “shy” Trump voters in 2020 than there were in 2016. Trafalgar was the only pollster to conduct a survey to find Trump leading in Michigan heading into Election Day in 2016.

The Trafalgar survey of 1,062 likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted between June 29 and July 2 and has a 3 percentage point margin of error.