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Poll finds Trump with lead in Missouri, but numbers are slipping

President TrumpDonald John TrumpPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Sunday shows preview: US health officials brace for post-holiday COVID-19 surge MORE has an edge over presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenPennsylvania Supreme Court strikes down GOP bid to stop election certification Biden looks to career officials to restore trust, morale in government agencies Biden transition adds new members to coronavirus task force MORE in Missouri, but there are signs that his support there may be slipping, according to a Saint Louis University-YouGov poll released on Monday. 

The poll shows Trump garnering 50 percent of the vote in Missouri, putting him 7 points ahead of Biden. That is still less less than his margin of victory in the Show-Me State four years ago, when he won more than 56 percent of the vote. 

Among virtually every demographic group included in the survey, Trump’s support lagged its 2016 levels. Seventy-four percent of evangelical voters, for instance, said they would support Trump over Biden in November a 9-point drop from four years ago, when he scored 83 percent of the Evangelical vote in Missouri. 

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The poll also shows Trump's support among female voters in Missouri is 10 points lower than where it stood in 2016, sinking to 43 percent. Among college graduates, his support fell from 55 percent in 2016 to 41 percent in the recent SLU-YouGov poll. 

Trump’s support is also slipping below 2016 levels among independent voters. The president won about 61 percent of Missouri independents in the election four years ago. In the poll released on Monday, 50 percent said they would vote for Trump in November.

Republican voters in the state, however, are sticking with the president. Ninety-one percent said they plan to vote for him in the general election. That’s nearly identical to the 92 percent of Missouri Republicans that cast their ballot for him in 2016.

Trump is still the heavy favorite to carry Missouri in November. The state has voted for Republicans in the last five presidential elections and has trended toward the right in recent years. 

But Trump’s decline in support in a friendly state comes amid a broader downward trend in his reelection prospects. Scores of national polls conducted in recent months show Biden leading Trump by increasing margins. That trend extends to a handful of critical battleground states, like Florida, where a recent CBS News-YouGov poll showed the former vice president with a 6-point lead. 

Trump’s overall approval rating in Missouri remains just above water, with 50 percent approving of his job performance and 48 percent disapproving. But a slight majority of respondents 51 percent — said they disapprove of how the president has responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Forty-eight percent approve of his response to the crisis. 

The SLU-YouGov poll surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters from June 23 to July 1. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.95 percentage points.