Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.
We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail.
LEADING THE DAY:
New polling data released on Wednesday finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenHouse Democrat threatens to vote against party's spending bill if HBCUs don't get more federal aid Overnight Defense & National Security — The Pentagon's deadly mistake Haitians stuck in Texas extend Biden's immigration woes MORE widening his lead over President TrumpDonald TrumpOvernight Defense & National Security — The Pentagon's deadly mistake Overnight Energy & Environment — Presented by Climate Power — Interior returns BLM HQ to Washington France pulls ambassadors to US, Australia in protest of submarine deal MORE.
The surveys show Biden ahead by landslide margins and are certain to set off alarms among Republicans, who could lose both the White House and the Senate if the president’s numbers don’t improve.
A new national poll from Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent. That’s a 7 point jump over the same poll from last month.
The survey found Trump’s approval job approval rating falling by 6 points to 36 percent, against 60 percent who disapprove.
“Yes, there’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
A Monmouth University survey found Biden leading Trump by 13 points in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump carried the state by less than 1 point in 2016 and it is a key piece to his reelection strategy.
Republican Rep. Mike KellyGeorge (Mike) Joseph KellyHouse Ethics panel reviewing Rep. Malinowski's stock trades Lobbying world Lobbying world MORE (Pa.) said this week that polls in Pennsylvania can’t be trusted because they don’t take into account Trump’s support from those who turned out to vote for the first time ever in 2016.
Kelly argued that “likely voter” models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.
But Trump actually does better in Monmouth’s “likely voter” model than he does when Monmouth tested all registered voters in the state.
When Monmouth considered a high-turnout election of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden’s lead narrows to 7 points.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.
A CNBC-Change Research survey found Trump’s job approval rating hit a record low of 45 percent among likely voters in the six core battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
And a new analysis from the pro-Biden super PAC Priorities USA found Biden ahead in all six battleground states. If the election were held today, Priorities USA projects that Biden would win 278 Electoral College votes, compared with 143 for Trump, with 56 leaning toward Biden and 61 leaning toward Trump.
-- Jonathan Easley
Biden leads Trump by 15 points in latest Quinnipiac poll, by Max Greenwood
Biden leads Trump by 13 points in Pennsylvania: poll, by Jonathan
Trump approval at record low among battleground voters: poll, by Zack Budryk
FROM THE TRAIL:
The Trump campaign is doubling down on its message of "law and order" with an ad released Wednesday telling Americans they "won't be safe" if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president. Tal Axelrod reports.
Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC and the main outside group supporting Biden’s presidential bid, is investing $24 million in an effort to encourage Black and Latinx voters in key battleground states to vote by mail. The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports.
FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:
The Senate matchups in Texas, Alabama and Maine are set.
Former Air Force helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar defeated state Sen. Royce West in the Democratic runoff to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynDemocrats make case to Senate parliamentarian for 8 million green cards Democrats to make pitch Friday for pathway to citizenship in spending bill Without major changes, more Americans could be victims of online crime MORE (R-Texas) in November. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon beat out two progressive Democrats in the primary to face Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsWelcome to ground zero of climate chaos A tale of two chambers: Trump's power holds in House, wanes in Senate Bipartisan blip: Infrastructure deal is last of its kind without systemic change MORE (R-Maine). And in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, the Trump-backed former Auburn University football coach, vanquished Jeff Sessions, who had been trying to win back his old Senate seat.
A few other highlights:
— Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician, appears likely to return to Washington after he won his House primary runoff in Texas’s 13th District.
— Candace Valenzuela beat retired Air Force Col. Kim Olson in the Democratic primary runoff in Texas’s 24th District.
— Former Rep. Pete SessionsPeter Anderson SessionsThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Emergent BioSolutions - Facebook upholds Trump ban; GOP leaders back Stefanik to replace Cheney Ex-Trump aide Pierson planning run for Congress READ: The Republicans who voted to challenge election results MORE (R-Texas), who lost his reelection bid in Texas’s 32nd District to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in 2018, won a GOP primary runoff in the state’s 17th District on Tuesday as he tries to get back to Washington.
One race that remains unresolved is the Republican runoff in Texas’s 23rd District, where Tony Gonzales, who’s backed by Trump, and Raul Reyes, who’s endorsed by Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzMore than 10,000 migrants await processing under bridge in Texas Senators slow Biden with holds at Pentagon, State The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by National Industries for the Blind - Schumer: Dem unity will happen eventually; Newsom prevails MORE (R-Texas), remain separated by only seven votes. There are still some mail-in ballots and provisional ballots that need to be counted, but the ultra-close margin has left the race undecided for the time being.
An outside group linked to several Democratic groups is running TV ads in Kansas’s Republican Senate primary. Taken at face value, the ad appears to attack both former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallKansas approves using M in federal funds to increase nurses' pay Photos of the Week: Infrastructure vote, India floods and a bear Kansas Republican asks for investigation into ESPN's role in Texas and Oklahoma moving to SEC MORE (R), the preferred candidate of Senate Republican leaders. But it may as well be a positive spot for Kobach, whom it casts as “too conservative” and uncompromising on issues like Trump’s proposed border wall. The Kansas Senate primary is slated for Aug. 4, and some Republicans fear a win for Kobach could cost them in the general election. The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports.
One month after she lost in the Democratic primary for Georgia’s 7th District, Nabilah Islam is launching a new PAC with the hope of providing support to other progressive contenders.
The group, known as the Progressive List, launched on Wednesday and will help get money to candidates in the early stages of their primary campaigns. Islam says the group will also give candidates the proper tools and resources to fundraise and reach out to voters.
“This is something that didn’t really exist when I was a candidate,” Islam told The Hill. “It would have been really helpful had an organization really listed my candidacy earlier on rather than waiting until the last month or two.”
“We’re going to be certainly targeting transformational candidates, progressives [who] we believe that look like their districts, are working class, running on progressive policies, but being on the ground with them day one,” she continued. “Making sure they have a check list--do you have a good campaign manager? Do you have progressive consultants that are good? Set the stage for them so that they have the tools to be successful.”
Meanwhile, the former Republicans running the Lincoln Project say they raised $16.8 million in the second quarter of 2020 as the group ramps up its anti-Trump efforts ahead of the general election. Tal reports.
Keith Belton: On American manufacturing, Biden plays offense
John Kass: Joe Biden can’t hold back the hard left
MARK YOUR CALENDARS:
Georgia primary runoffs
Democratic National Convention
Republican National Convention
New Hampshire primaries
Rhode Island primaries
First presidential debate
Vice presidential debate
Second presidential debate
Third presidential debate