The Hill's Campaign Report: New polls show Biden leading by landslide margins

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail.

LEADING THE DAY:

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New polling data released on Wednesday finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenMark Kelly clinches Democratic Senate nod in Arizona Hillicon Valley: NSA warns of new security threats | Teen accused of Twitter hack pleads not guilty | Experts warn of mail-in voting misinformation Biden offers well wishes to Lebanon after deadly explosion MORE widening his lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpMark Kelly clinches Democratic Senate nod in Arizona Trump camp considering White House South Lawn for convention speech: reports Longtime Rep. Lacy Clay defeated in Missouri Democratic primary MORE.

The surveys show Biden ahead by landslide margins and are certain to set off alarms among Republicans, who could lose both the White House and the Senate if the president’s numbers don’t improve.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent. That’s a 7 point jump over the same poll from last month.

The survey found Trump’s approval job approval rating falling by 6 points to 36 percent, against 60 percent who disapprove.

“Yes, there’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

A Monmouth University survey found Biden leading Trump by 13 points in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump carried the state by less than 1 point in 2016 and it is a key piece to his reelection strategy.

Republican Rep. Mike KellyGeorge (Mike) Joseph KellyMultiple lawmakers self-quarantine after exposure to Gohmert Gohmert tests positive for COVID-19 Trump may have power, but he still has no plan to fight the pandemic MORE (Pa.) said this week that polls in Pennsylvania can’t be trusted because they don’t take into account Trump’s support from those who turned out to vote for the first time ever in 2016.

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Kelly argued that “likely voter” models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.

But Trump actually does better in Monmouth’s “likely voter” model than he does when Monmouth tested all registered voters in the state.

When Monmouth considered a high-turnout election of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden’s lead narrows to 7 points.

“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.

A CNBC-Change Research survey found Trump’s job approval rating hit a record low of 45 percent among likely voters in the six core battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

And a new analysis from the pro-Biden super PAC Priorities USA found Biden ahead in all six battleground states. If the election were held today, Priorities USA projects that Biden would win 278 Electoral College votes, compared with 143 for Trump, with 56 leaning toward Biden and 61 leaning toward Trump.

-- Jonathan Easley

READ MORE:

Biden leads Trump by 15 points in latest Quinnipiac poll, by Max Greenwood

Biden leads Trump by 13 points in Pennsylvania: poll, by Jonathan

Trump approval at record low among battleground voters: poll, by Zack Budryk 

 

 

FROM THE TRAIL:

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The Trump campaign is doubling down on its message of "law and order" with an ad released Wednesday telling Americans they "won't be safe" if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president. Tal Axelrod reports.

Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC and the main outside group supporting Biden’s presidential bid, is investing $24 million in an effort to encourage Black and Latinx voters in key battleground states to vote by mail. The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports.

 

FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:

The Senate matchups in Texas, Alabama and Maine are set.

Former Air Force helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar defeated state Sen. Royce West in the Democratic runoff to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynNegotiators hit gas on coronavirus talks as frustration mounts The Hill's Campaign Report: Even the Post Office is political now | Primary action tonight | Super PACS at war GOP expects Senate to be in session next week without coronavirus deal MORE (R-Texas) in November. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon beat out two progressive Democrats in the primary to face Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsUnemployment debate sparks GOP divisions Obama announces first wave of 2020 endorsements Senate GOP divided over whether they'd fill Supreme Court vacancy  MORE (R-Maine). And in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, the Trump-backed former Auburn University football coach, vanquished Jeff Sessions, who had been trying to win back his old Senate seat.

A few other highlights:

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— Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician, appears likely to return to Washington after he won his House primary runoff in Texas’s 13th District. 

— Candace Valenzuela beat retired Air Force Col. Kim Olson in the Democratic primary runoff in Texas’s 24th District. 

 — Former Rep. Pete SessionsPeter Anderson SessionsThe Hill's Campaign Report: New polls show Biden leading by landslide margins The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Argentum - In Rose Garden, Trump launches anti-Biden screed Pete Sessions wins GOP runoff in comeback bid MORE (R-Texas), who lost his reelection bid in Texas’s 32nd District to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in 2018, won a GOP primary runoff in the state’s 17th District on Tuesday as he tries to get back to Washington.

One race that remains unresolved is the Republican runoff in Texas’s 23rd District, where Tony Gonzales, who’s backed by Trump, and Raul Reyes, who’s endorsed by Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate Democrats prepare seven-figure spending spree in Texas On The Trail: The first signs of a post-Trump GOP Trump tests GOP loyalty with election tweet and stimulus strategy MORE (R-Texas), remain separated by only seven votes. There are still some mail-in ballots and provisional ballots that need to be counted, but the ultra-close margin has left the race undecided for the time being.

An outside group linked to several Democratic groups is running TV ads in Kansas’s Republican Senate primary. Taken at face value, the ad appears to attack both former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallTracey Mann wins GOP primary to replace Rep. Roger Marshall Establishment-backed Marshall defeats Kobach in Kansas GOP Senate primary Bollier wins Kansas Democratic Senate primary MORE (R), the preferred candidate of Senate Republican leaders. But it may as well be a positive spot for Kobach, whom it casts as “too conservative” and uncompromising on issues like Trump’s proposed border wall. The Kansas Senate primary is slated for Aug. 4, and some Republicans fear a win for Kobach could cost them in the general election. The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports.

MONEY WATCH:

One month after she lost in the Democratic primary for Georgia’s 7th District, Nabilah Islam is launching a new PAC with the hope of providing support to other progressive contenders.

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The group, known as the Progressive List, launched on Wednesday and will help get money to candidates in the early stages of their primary campaigns. Islam says the group will also give candidates the proper tools and resources to fundraise and reach out to voters.

“This is something that didn’t really exist when I was a candidate,” Islam told The Hill. “It would have been really helpful had an organization really listed my candidacy earlier on rather than waiting until the last month or two.”

“We’re going to be certainly targeting transformational candidates, progressives [who] we believe that look like their districts, are working class, running on progressive policies, but being on the ground with them day one,” she continued. “Making sure they have a check list--do you have a good campaign manager? Do you have progressive consultants that are good? Set the stage for them so that they have the tools to be successful.”

Meanwhile, the former Republicans running the Lincoln Project say they raised $16.8 million in the second quarter of 2020 as the group ramps up its anti-Trump efforts ahead of the general election. Tal reports.

 

PERSPECTIVES:

Keith Belton: On American manufacturing, Biden plays offense

John Kass: Joe Biden can’t hold back the hard left

 

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

Aug. 4:

Arizona primaries

Kansas primaries

Michigan primaries

Missouri primaries

Washington primaries

 

Aug. 6

Tennessee primaries

 

Aug. 11:

Connecticut primaries

Minnesota primaries

Vermont primaries

Wisconsin primaries

Georgia primary runoffs

 

Aug. 18:

Alaska primaries

Florida primaries

Wyoming primaries

 

Aug. 17-20:

Democratic National Convention

 

Aug. 24-27:

Republican National Convention

 

Sept. 1:

Massachusetts primaries

 

Sept. 8:

New Hampshire primaries

Rhode Island primaries

 

Sept. 15:

Delaware primaries

 

Sept. 29:

First presidential debate

 

Oct. 7:

Vice presidential debate

 

Oct. 15:

Second presidential debate

 

Oct. 22:

Third presidential debate