Cook Political Report shifts several Senate races toward Democrats

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, an independent online newsletter,  shifted a handful of Senate races on Thursday in favor of Democrats, with the November general election just 103 days away.

With the relabeling came a prediction: that Democrats, who control the House, will win back control of the Senate in November.

Cook switched GOP Sens. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstPoll shows tight Senate race in Iowa Will Republicans' rank hypocrisy hinder their rush to replace Ginsburg? Momentum growing among Republicans for Supreme Court vote before Election Day MORE (Iowa) and David Perdue's (Ga.) matchups against Democratic challengers from "lean Republican" to a "toss-up," while Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyMcConnell locks down key GOP votes in Supreme Court fight Will Republicans' rank hypocrisy hinder their rush to replace Ginsburg? Trump supporters chant 'Fill that seat' at North Carolina rally MORE (R-Ariz.) had her race against former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) changed from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic."


Jon Ossoff, who will challenge Perdue, said last week that internal polling done by Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group showed him in a dead heat with the Republican senator, 45-44.

Additionally, Democratic Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump and Biden vie for Minnesota | Early voting begins in four states | Blue state GOP governors back Susan Collins GOP Senate candidate says Trump, Republicans will surprise in Minnesota Biden promises Democratic senators help in battleground states MORE (Minn.) had her race changed from "lean Democratic" to "solid Democratic." The race for retiring Sen. Tom UdallThomas (Tom) Stewart UdallLWCF modernization: Restoring the promise OVERNIGHT ENERGY: House Democrats tee up vote on climate-focused energy bill next week | EPA reappoints controversial leader to air quality advisory committee | Coronavirus creates delay in Pentagon research for alternative to 'forever chemicals' Senate Democrats demand White House fire controversial head of public lands agency MORE's (D-N.M.) seat between Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Republican Mark Ronchetti was also shifted from "lean Democratic" to "solid Democratic."

For Democrats to regain control of the Senate in November, they need to either win four seats if presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden leads Trump by 36 points nationally among Latinos: poll GOP set to release controversial Biden report Can Donald Trump maintain new momentum until this November? MORE wins, or five seats if he loses.

The independent report notes that the Senate hasn't been flipped outright during a presidential election year since 1980, when former President Ronald Reagan (R) beat former President Jimmy CarterJimmy CarterWarning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina Jimmy Carter remembers Ruth Bader Ginsburg as 'a beacon of justice' With 5 weeks to go, the economy and Trump are surging MORE (D).

Last week, Cook shifted 20 House races towards Democrats as well. Overall, FiveThiryEight's average of all congressional races show Democrats with an 8-point lead, 49-41.

The latest ratings from Cook come as President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden leads Trump by 36 points nationally among Latinos: poll Trump dismisses climate change role in fires, says Newsom needs to manage forest better Jimmy Kimmel hits Trump for rallies while hosting Emmy Awards MORE has dropped behind Biden in recent swing state polls. Polls released Thursday showed Trump trailing the former vice president by 13 and 6 points in Florida.

A Fox News poll released Thursday evening also showed Trump trailing Biden in Michigan and Pennsylvania by 9 and 11 points, respectively. Trump won both Pennsylvania and Michigan by close margins against former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden leads Trump by 36 points nationally among Latinos: poll Democratic super PAC to hit Trump in battleground states over coronavirus deaths Battle lines drawn on precedent in Supreme Court fight MORE in 2016.