Biden leads Trump, Kelly tops McSally in Arizona: poll

A new poll offers positive news for Democrats in the swing state of Arizona, showing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenObama slams Trump in Miami: 'Florida Man wouldn't even do this stuff' Trump makes his case in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin Brad Pitt narrates Biden ad airing during World Series MORE leading President TrumpDonald John TrumpObama slams Trump in Miami: 'Florida Man wouldn't even do this stuff' Trump makes his case in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin Pence's chief of staff tests positive for COVID-19 MORE and Democrat Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump expressed doubt to donors GOP can hold Senate: report Mark Kelly releases Spanish ad featuring Rep. Gallego Senate is leaning to the Democrats, big time, with a wave MORE (R-Ariz.).

The NBC News-Marist poll released Sunday found Biden with 50 percent support among registered voters in Arizona, compared with the president’s 45 percent. The results were barely outside the poll’s margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. 

A total of 4 percent said they were undecided or would pick another candidate. 


In March’s NBC News-Marist poll, Biden had a 1 percentage point lead over Trump, 47 percent to 46 percent.

In the current poll, the former vice president received higher support among Latinos at 61 percent, voters under 45 at 57 percent, women at 57 percent, independents at 55 percent and whites with college degrees at 51 percent.

Trump topped Biden in the poll among men at 53 percent, voters above 45 at 52 percent, whites at 49 percent and whites without a college degree at 52 percent.

Forty-eight percent of registered voters in the state said Biden would better at handling the coronavirus pandemic, and 53 percent said he would be better at managing race relations. But 55 percent of registered voters said the current president would be better at handling the economy.

More of the president’s supporters in the poll said they strongly support Trump at 74 percent, compared with 61 percent of Biden’s supporters. But 56 percent of voters who dislike both candidates said they’re going with Biden, while 29 percent said they will side with Trump. 

Meanwhile, Kelly earned 53 percent of the vote from registered voters, compared with McSally, the sitting senator, who got 41 percent support. In March’s poll, Kelly and McSally were separated by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent. 


The NBC News-Marist poll surveyed 1,020 adults, including 826 registered voters, between July 14 and 22. The margin of error was 3.7 percentage points, while the margin of error among registered voters was 4.1 percentage points.

A majority of the registered voters surveyed came from Maricopa County, where Phoenix is located, at 60 percent.

The poll comes as Arizona has dealt with a coronavirus surge in recent weeks. A total of 162,014 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed since the beginning of the pandemic, leading to 3,305 deaths, according to state data.

The state saw its peak in single-day increases in confirmed cases on the last day of June, with 4,797 new cases, and has since reached a seven-day average of 2,675 new cases per day, according to New York Times data.