President TrumpDonald TrumpJulian Castro knocks Biden administration over refugee policy Overnight Energy & Environment — League of Conservation Voters — Climate summit chief says US needs to 'show progress' on environment Five takeaways from Arizona's audit results MORE is within striking distance of former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenFighter jet escorts aircraft that entered restricted airspace during UN gathering Julian Castro knocks Biden administration over refugee policy FBI investigating alleged assault on Fort Bliss soldier at Afghan refugee camp MORE in Minnesota, according to a new Emerson College poll released Tuesday that shows the GOP incumbent trailing by only 3 points in a state Democrats have carried for decades.
The survey shows Biden with 50 percent of the vote in Minnesota, while Trump trails with 47 percent, within the poll’s 3.6 percentage point margin of error.
Several other recent polls in Minnesota show Biden with a much wider lead. A Fox News poll released last month put the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee ahead by 13 points, while another from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling found Biden with a 10-point advantage over Trump.
Biden’s 3-point lead in the Emerson College poll, however, is still wider than former Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonDemocrats worry negative images are defining White House Heller won't say if Biden won election Whitmer trailing GOP challenger by 6 points in Michigan governor race: poll MORE’s margin of victory in Minnesota in 2016, when she carried the state by a scant 1.5 percentage points.
Still, the latest Emerson survey suggests that the North Star State may be in play for Trump and Republicans this year, raising the possibility of an upset for Democrats in a state that they have carried in every presidential election since 1976.
There are still signs of trouble for Trump in Minnesota. His approval rating is underwater at 46 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval, though he fares slightly better among independent voters at 45 percent to 47 percent.
At the same time, Biden has a wide advantage among voters who plan to cast their ballots by mail — a metric that could prove important in an election that’s expected to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Ninety-one percent of those who said they plan to vote by mail expect to vote for Biden, while 68 percent of those who plan to vote in person back Trump.
The poll also suggests that most voters have already made up their mind about whom to vote for. Only 3 percent of respondents said they are still undecided in the presidential race, giving both candidates limited opportunities to expand their support in Minnesota.
In Minnesota’s Senate race, Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithSenate Democrats seeking information from SPACs, questioning 'misaligned incentives' Overnight Energy & Environment — Presented by Climate Power — Democratic leaders vow climate action amid divide Manchin puts foot down on key climate provision in spending bill MORE (D) holds a 3-point lead over her likely Republican opponent Rep. Jason LewisJason LewisRep. Angie Craig defends Minnesota House seat in race clouded by legal confusion Smith wins reelection in Minnesota Klobuchar 'feeling good' about Democrats taking control of Senate MORE, garnering 48 percent support to Lewis’s 45 percent, according to the Emerson College poll.
While that’s within the poll’s margin of error, more voters are up for grabs in the Senate race. Seven percent said they are still undecided.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 733 likely registered Minnesota voters from Aug. 8-10. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.6 percentage points.