Internal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest

Internal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest
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An internal poll shows a neck-and-neck race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District between Democrat Cameron Webb and Republican Bob Good as Democrats look to flip the open GOP seat.

An internal poll conducted for the Webb campaign and obtained exclusively by The Hill shows Webb with 42 percent support among likely voters, narrowly trailing Good, who leads with 44 percent – a difference that falls within the survey’s margin of error. Another 13 percent of voters remain undecided.

Neither candidate is very well known in the district, raising the prospects of a fluid campaign in the final 81 days until election day. Forty-five percent of likely voters said they were familiar with Webb, while 49 percent said they were familiar with Good. 

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In a promising sign for Democrats, President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden administration to keep Trump-era rule of turning away migrants during pandemic On The Money: Biden, Pelosi struggle with end of eviction ban | Trump attorney says he will fight release of tax returns Lack of transatlantic cooperation on trade threatens global climate change goals MORE, who won the district by 13 points in 2016, has an underwater favorability rating there now, with 45 percent of likely voters viewing him favorably and 52 percent saying they have an unfavorable view of him. Still, Trump has a slim 2-point lead over former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenRussia says 24 diplomats asked by U.S. to leave by September Biden discusses Canadian citizens detained in China with Trudeau Biden administration to keep Trump-era rule of turning away migrants during pandemic MORE, the presumptive Democratic nominee, by a 45-47 margin.

Democrats are hopeful that Webb, a medical doctor, can make headway in the district after Good, a former Liberty University staffer, unseated Rep. Denver RigglemanDenver RigglemanVirginia Democrats seek to tie Youngkin to Trump's election claims The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Jan. 6 probe, infrastructure to dominate week The Hill's Morning Report - Pelosi considers adding GOP voices to Jan. 6 panel MORE (R) at the GOP convention after Riggleman caught flak from some voters for officiating a same-sex wedding.

The GOP’s margin of victory has shrunk in the central Virginia district, with Republican Tom GarrettThomas (Tom) Alexander GarrettInternal poll shows tight race in Virginia House race Internal poll shows neck-and-neck race brewing in Virginia House contest GOP congressman loses primary after officiating gay wedding MORE winning there by about 16 points in 2016 and Riggleman earning his first term in 2018 by just over 6 points. 

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates the race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District as “Lean Republican.” 

The internal poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, surveyed 500 likely voters from July 30-August 4 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.