Poll: Trump-Biden match-up within margin of error in Pennsylvania

President TrumpDonald TrumpStowaway found in landing gear of plane after flight from Guatemala to Miami Kushner looking to Middle East for investors in new firm: report GOP eyes booting Democrats from seats if House flips MORE and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenGOP eyes booting Democrats from seats if House flips Five House members meet with Taiwanese president despite Chinese objections Sunday shows preview: New COVID-19 variant emerges; supply chain issues and inflation persist MORE are running neck and neck in Pennsylvania, according to a new Muhlenberg College-Morning Call poll released Thursday.

Biden leads with 49 percent support among likely voters in the Keystone State, but Trump trails close behind with 45 percent, a difference that falls within the survey’s margin of error. Three percent of voters said they will vote for neither candidate, and another 3 percent said they were unsure. 

Trump’s approval rating is underwater in the state, with 51 percent of likely voters saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing and 43 percent approving. His handling specifically of the coronavirus pandemic is also viewed unfavorably, with 51 percent saying it’s been “poor” and only 17 percent saying it’s been “excellent.”


Pennsylvania is set to be one of the most competitive battlegrounds in 2020 after Trump won the state by just more than 1 point in 2016, the first time the state had gone for a Republican presidential contender since 1988.

Past polling has shown Biden holding a single-digit lead over Trump in the state, and the RealClearPolitics polling average has him up 5.7 points.

Democrats are hopeful that Biden, who hails from Scranton, Pa., will be able to tap into his working-class roots to win back white voters in Rust Belt states who defected from the Democratic Party in 2016. 

Democrats got a boost in the state in 2018 when Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseySenators urging federal investigation into Liberty University's handling of sexual assault claims Crucial talks on Biden agenda enter homestretch Senate Democrats call for diversity among new Federal Reserve Bank presidents MORE Jr. and Gov. Tom WolfTom WolfPennsylvania K-12 mask mandate rejected by state court Overnight Health Care — Presented by Rare Access Action Project — White House unshaken by mandate ruling Pennsylvania governor allowing school districts to modify, end mask mandate MORE were reelected by double digits. In an indicator of more down-ballot success, the party is also ahead in the generic congressional ballot by 7 points in Thursday’s poll. 

The Muhlenberg College-Morning Call poll surveyed 416 likely Pennsylvania voters from Aug. 11 to 17 and has a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.