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Biden leads Trump across six battleground states: poll

Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump says he'll leave White House if Biden declared winner of Electoral College The Memo: Biden faces tough road on pledge to heal nation US records 2,300 COVID-19 deaths as pandemic rises with holidays MORE leads President TrumpDonald John TrumpVenezuela judge orders prison time for 6 American oil executives Trump says he'll leave White House if Biden declared winner of Electoral College The Memo: Biden faces tough road on pledge to heal nation MORE in six key battleground states, according to a new CNBC-Change Research poll released on Wednesday.

Across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the former vice president nets a 4-point advantage over Trump. Nationally, Biden’s lead grows to 9 points, up 3 points since a CNBC-Change Research poll released earlier this month. 

The latest poll shows Biden expanding his lead across three battleground states: Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. In Arizona, the former vice president leads Trump 49-43 percent. In Michigan and Wisconsin, his advantage is even more significant; he leads Trump in those states 51-43 percent and 51-42 percent, respectively. 

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In Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Biden’s lead held steady. He still has a 3-point advantage over Trump in Florida, a 2-point advantage in North Carolina and a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania. 

The poll began on Friday evening after news of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgCardinal Dolan hails Supreme Court decision on churches, COVID-19 Cuomo blames new conservative majority for High Court's COVID-19 decision Supreme Court blocks New York coronavirus restrictions on houses of worship MORE’s death and ran through Sept. 20, putting it among the first surveys to capture voter attitudes about the current fight to fill Ginsburg’s seat.

The poll shows that a majority of likely voters nationally 57 percent do not believe that Trump should be able to nominate a replacement for Ginsburg. A little more than a third of respondents 37 percent say that he should fill the open seat. 

Trump has said that he plans to name his pick to replace Ginsburg on the court as soon as Friday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellAs Biden administration ramps up, Trump legal effort drags on Harris says she has 'not yet' spoken to Pence Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams among nominees for Time magazine's 2020 Person of the Year MORE (R-Ky.) has said that the Senate will move quickly to confirm the eventual nominee. 

But that plan has infuriated Democrats, who say that Republicans should stick to the precedent they set in 2016 when they refused to hold a confirmation hearing for then-President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick GarlandMerrick Brian GarlandFeinstein departure from top post sets stage for Judiciary fight McConnell pushed Trump to nominate Barrett on the night of Ginsburg's death: report Feinstein to step down as top Democrat on Judiciary Committee MORE. McConnell argued at the time that the Senate should not confirm a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

Nationally, Biden and the Democrats are more trusted to choose Ginsburg’s replacement on the court, 54-46 percent. Battleground state voters are almost evenly split on that question, with 51 percent saying they prefer Biden to name a replacement and 49 percent preferring Trump.

The CNBC-Change Research poll surveyed 3,018 likely voters across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Sept. 18 to 20. A companion poll of likely voters nationally surveyed 1,430 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is 1.79 percentage points for the battleground state polling and 2.59 percentage points for the national polling.