Poll: Trump opens up 6-point lead over Biden in Iowa

President TrumpDonald John TrumpPolice say man dangling off Trump Tower Chicago demanding to speak with Trump Fauci says he was 'absolutely not' surprised Trump got coronavirus after Rose Garden event Biden: Trump 'continues to lie to us' about coronavirus MORE has widened his lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden: Trump 'continues to lie to us' about coronavirus Rally crowd chants 'lock him up' as Trump calls Biden family 'a criminal enterprise' Undecided voters in Arizona wary of Trump, crave stability MORE in Iowa, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows Trump running 6 points ahead of the former vice president.

The survey found Trump garnering 50 percent support among registered voters in Iowa to Biden’s 44 percent, doubling his lead from 3 points in August to 6 points in September.

But among those voters most likely to cast their ballot in the November election, the race tightens, with Trump capturing 49 percent support to Biden’s 46 percent. Those margins hold in scenarios in which turnout is higher than 2016 levels or lower than it was four years ago.


“Trump’s overall voter support has broadened slightly while Biden’s has held steady,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “However, this does not seem to be translating to a significantly wider lead for the incumbent among those most likely to vote in November. It is still a very tight race.”

Still, the poll results suggest that Trump still has the advantage in a state that he carried in 2016 by more than 9 percentage points.

In Iowa’s contested Senate race, Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstPush to expand Supreme Court faces Democratic buzzsaw Supreme Court battle turns into 2020 proxy war Trump hits road in scramble to shore up support from 2016 MORE (R-Iowa) and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are deadlocked at 47 percent each. Under a model in which voter turnout is higher than in 2016, however, Greenfield gains a 3-point edge, capturing 49 percent support to Ernst’s 46 percent. 

A model accounting for lower turnout than 2016 shows Greenfield with an ultra-slim lead over Ernst, at 48 percent to 47 percent.

Iowa voters are largely split on whether Trump should nominate a new Supreme Court justice to replace Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgFauci says he was 'absolutely not' surprised Trump got coronavirus after Rose Garden event Push to expand Supreme Court faces Democratic buzzsaw Biden owes us an answer on court-packing MORE before the November election. Just under half of respondents — 47 percent — said they support such a move, while 50 percent disapprove. 


Ginsburg, one of the court’s liberal justices, died on Friday from complications of metastatic pancreatic cancer. Her death set off an immediate fight over whether Trump should name a replacement before the election, with Democrats urging Senate Republicans to stick to the precedent they set in 2016 when they refused to hold a confirmation hearing for former President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick GarlandMerrick Brian GarlandPush to expand Supreme Court faces Democratic buzzsaw Biden keeps both sides guessing on court packing Biden town hall questioner worked as speechwriter in Obama administration: report MORE.

Trump is expected to name a nominee for Ginsburg’s seat on Saturday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellPush to expand Supreme Court faces Democratic buzzsaw Schumer labels McConnell's scheduled coronavirus stimulus vote as 'a stunt' Pelosi gives White House 48-hour deadline for coronavirus stimulus deal MORE (R-Ky.) has said he plans to quickly move forward with the confirmation process. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 402 registered Iowa voters Sept. 18-22. It has a margin of sampling error of 4.9 percentage points.