Poll: Trump opens up 6-point lead over Biden in Iowa

President TrumpDonald TrumpNew Capitol Police chief to take over Friday Overnight Health Care: Biden officials says no change to masking guidance right now | Missouri Supreme Court rules in favor of Medicaid expansion | Mississippi's attorney general asks Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade Michael Wolff and the art of monetizing gossip MORE has widened his lead over Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenOvernight Defense: Senate panel adds B to Biden's defense budget | House passes bill to streamline visa process for Afghans who helped US | Pentagon confirms 7 Colombians arrested in Haiti leader's killing had US training On The Money: Senate braces for nasty debt ceiling fight | Democrats pushing for changes to bipartisan deal | Housing prices hit new high in June Hillicon Valley: Democrats introduce bill to hold platforms accountable for misinformation during health crises | Website outages hit Olympics, Amazon and major banks MORE in Iowa, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows Trump running 6 points ahead of the former vice president.

The survey found Trump garnering 50 percent support among registered voters in Iowa to Biden’s 44 percent, doubling his lead from 3 points in August to 6 points in September.

But among those voters most likely to cast their ballot in the November election, the race tightens, with Trump capturing 49 percent support to Biden’s 46 percent. Those margins hold in scenarios in which turnout is higher than 2016 levels or lower than it was four years ago.


“Trump’s overall voter support has broadened slightly while Biden’s has held steady,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “However, this does not seem to be translating to a significantly wider lead for the incumbent among those most likely to vote in November. It is still a very tight race.”

Still, the poll results suggest that Trump still has the advantage in a state that he carried in 2016 by more than 9 percentage points.

In Iowa’s contested Senate race, Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstBiden signs bill to bolster crime victims fund GOP seeks to make Biden synonymous with inflation Overnight Defense: Pentagon details military construction projects getting .2B restored from wall funds | Biden chooses former commander to lead Navy | Bill seeks to boost visa program for Afghans who helped US MORE (R-Iowa) and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are deadlocked at 47 percent each. Under a model in which voter turnout is higher than in 2016, however, Greenfield gains a 3-point edge, capturing 49 percent support to Ernst’s 46 percent. 

A model accounting for lower turnout than 2016 shows Greenfield with an ultra-slim lead over Ernst, at 48 percent to 47 percent.

Iowa voters are largely split on whether Trump should nominate a new Supreme Court justice to replace Justice Ruth Bader GinsburgRuth Bader GinsburgMississippi's attorney general asks Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade 10 books that take readers inside the lives of American leaders No reason to pack the court MORE before the November election. Just under half of respondents — 47 percent — said they support such a move, while 50 percent disapprove. 


Ginsburg, one of the court’s liberal justices, died on Friday from complications of metastatic pancreatic cancer. Her death set off an immediate fight over whether Trump should name a replacement before the election, with Democrats urging Senate Republicans to stick to the precedent they set in 2016 when they refused to hold a confirmation hearing for former President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick GarlandMerrick GarlandBiden administration moves to withdraw death penalty requests in seven cases Federal gun trafficking strike forces launched in five cities Garland restricting DOJ contact with White House officials MORE.

Trump is expected to name a nominee for Ginsburg’s seat on Saturday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellS.E. Cupp: 'The politicization of science and health safety has inarguably cost lives' Poll: Potential Sununu-Hassan matchup in N.H. a dead heat  Business groups urge lawmakers to stick with bipartisan infrastructure deal MORE (R-Ky.) has said he plans to quickly move forward with the confirmation process. 

The Monmouth University poll surveyed 402 registered Iowa voters Sept. 18-22. It has a margin of sampling error of 4.9 percentage points.