Forecasters raise probability of Biden victory 3 percentage points after debate

A number of political forecasters on Wednesday reported it had become more likely that Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden prepares to confront Putin Ukrainian president thanks G-7 nations for statement of support Biden aims to bolster troubled Turkey ties in first Erdoğan meeting MORE would defeat President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden prepares to confront Putin Biden aims to bolster troubled Turkey ties in first Erdoğan meeting Senate investigation of insurrection falls short MORE in the upcoming election following Tuesday night’s chaotic and confrontational debate. 

Good Judgment Inc., a global forecasting company, reported on Wednesday a median estimate that Biden had a 78 percent chance of winning, up from 75 percent the day before.

The project has reported a steady rise in the probability of a Biden victory since its lowest point in February, when it had Biden at 37 percent. The probability reached as high as 82 percentage points in July. 


Nate Silver’s political polling group, FiveThirtyEight, also reported on Wednesday that Biden has a 78 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 67 percent on Aug. 31. 

While neither group named a specific catalyst for Wednesday’s percentage jumps, the new numbers come less than 24 hours after the candidates went head-to-head in the first of three presidential debates scheduled ahead of Election Day. 

During the televised debate, Trump interrupted Biden, as well as moderator Chris WallaceChristopher (Chris) WallaceSunday shows - Biden foreign policy in focus Pompeo defends Trump on Russia in Chris Wallace interview Lewandowski says Trump has not spoken to him about being reinstated MORE, multiple times, with Biden calling the president a “fool” and a “clown.” 

"I think that the country would be better served if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions,” Wallace said to Trump at one point. “I am appealing to you, sir, to do that.”

After Trump talked over Biden during one portion of the debate, Biden shook his head and said, “Will you shut up, man.”


The next presidential debate is scheduled to take place in Miami on Oct. 15, with C-SPAN's Steve Scully moderating. 

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a bipartisan body that helps plan and execute the debates between presidential and vice presidential candidates, said on Wednesday that it is considering making changes to the format of future debates. 

“Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues,” the group said in a statement. “The CPD will be carefully considering the changes that it will adopt and will announce those measures shortly.”