Forecasters raise probability of Biden victory 3 percentage points after debate

A number of political forecasters on Wednesday reported it had become more likely that Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenDC residents jumped at opportunity to pay for meals for National Guardsmen Joe Biden might bring 'unity' – to the Middle East Biden shouldn't let defeating cancer take a backseat to COVID MORE would defeat President TrumpDonald TrumpNYT: Rep. Perry played role in alleged Trump plan to oust acting AG Arizona GOP censures top state Republicans McCain, Flake and Ducey Biden and UK prime minister discuss NATO, multilateralism during call MORE in the upcoming election following Tuesday night’s chaotic and confrontational debate. 

Good Judgment Inc., a global forecasting company, reported on Wednesday a median estimate that Biden had a 78 percent chance of winning, up from 75 percent the day before.

The project has reported a steady rise in the probability of a Biden victory since its lowest point in February, when it had Biden at 37 percent. The probability reached as high as 82 percentage points in July. 


Nate Silver’s political polling group, FiveThirtyEight, also reported on Wednesday that Biden has a 78 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 67 percent on Aug. 31. 

While neither group named a specific catalyst for Wednesday’s percentage jumps, the new numbers come less than 24 hours after the candidates went head-to-head in the first of three presidential debates scheduled ahead of Election Day. 

During the televised debate, Trump interrupted Biden, as well as moderator Chris WallaceChristopher (Chris) WallaceChris Wallace: This was best inaugural address I've ever heard Fox News's DC managing editor Bill Sammon to retire Arkansas governor: Intelligence on state capitol protests 'not to the level that I'm bringing out the National Guard' MORE, multiple times, with Biden calling the president a “fool” and a “clown.” 

"I think that the country would be better served if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions,” Wallace said to Trump at one point. “I am appealing to you, sir, to do that.”

After Trump talked over Biden during one portion of the debate, Biden shook his head and said, “Will you shut up, man.”


The next presidential debate is scheduled to take place in Miami on Oct. 15, with C-SPAN's Steve Scully moderating. 

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a bipartisan body that helps plan and execute the debates between presidential and vice presidential candidates, said on Wednesday that it is considering making changes to the format of future debates. 

“Last night’s debate made clear that additional structure should be added to the format of the remaining debates to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues,” the group said in a statement. “The CPD will be carefully considering the changes that it will adopt and will announce those measures shortly.”