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Biden campaign manager: Race is 'far closer' than experts say

Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenIRS to roll out payments for ,000 child tax credit in July Capitol Police told not to use most aggressive tactics in riot response, report finds Biden to accompany first lady to appointment for 'common medical procedure' MORE’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, says the race against President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden to move ahead with billion UAE weapons sale approved by Trump Fox News hires high-profile defense team in Dominion defamation lawsuit Associate indicted in Gaetz scandal cooperating with DOJ: report MORE is “far closer” than conventional wisdom suggests.

Despite polls showing the former vice president with a double-digit lead over Trump nationally and smaller but consistent leads in battleground states, Dillon warned over Twitter on Wednesday night that the contest is “a lot closer.”

“Early voting is already underway in many states,” Dillon said. “Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website [Twitter] think. Like a lot closer.”

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Biden leads by 9.3 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average with under three weeks to go before the election. Analysts say Trump could lose the national vote by about 4 points and still pull off a victory in the Electoral College.

Democrat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhy does Bernie Sanders want to quash Elon Musk's dreams? Republican legislators target private sector election grants How Democrats can defy the odds in 2022 MORE led Trump by 3.2 points nationally heading into Election Day in 2016 and won the popular vote by 2.1 points.

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Biden leads in the RealClearPolitics average in all six of the core battleground states, with his biggest leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he leads by 6 points or more. The race is tighter in Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.

If the 2016 map stays the same but Biden wins back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he’ll win the White House. Biden is also running close to Trump in states the president won easily in 2016, such as Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.

“The next few weeks are going to be hard,” Dillon said.

Updated at 9:47 a.m.