Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden invokes Trump in bid to boost McAuliffe ahead of Election Day Business lobby calls for administration to 'pump the brakes' on vaccine mandate Overnight Defense & National Security — Presented by Boeing — Afghanistan reckoning shows no signs of stopping MORE’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, says the race against President TrumpDonald TrumpJan. 6 panel plans to subpoena Trump lawyer who advised on how to overturn election Texans chairman apologizes for 'China virus' remark Biden invokes Trump in bid to boost McAuliffe ahead of Election Day MORE is “far closer” than conventional wisdom suggests.
Despite polls showing the former vice president with a double-digit lead over Trump nationally and smaller but consistent leads in battleground states, Dillon warned over Twitter on Wednesday night that the contest is “a lot closer.”
“Early voting is already underway in many states,” Dillon said. “Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website [Twitter] think. Like a lot closer.”
Now: Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer. (4/?)— Jen O'Malley DillonJen O'Malley DillonDNC members grow frustrated over increasing White House influence Hillary Clinton slams Trump supporters 'claiming to be offended' by Biden staffer cursing Biden spokeswoman defends incoming deputy chief of staff's 'spicy language' in Glamour interview MORE (@jomalleydillon) October 15, 2020
Biden leads by 9.3 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average with under three weeks to go before the election. Analysts say Trump could lose the national vote by about 4 points and still pull off a victory in the Electoral College.
Democrat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe real reason Biden is going to the COP26 climate summit Super PACs release ad campaign hitting Vance over past comments on Trump I voted for Trump in 2020 — he proved to be the ultimate RINO in 2021 MORE led Trump by 3.2 points nationally heading into Election Day in 2016 and won the popular vote by 2.1 points.
Biden leads in the RealClearPolitics average in all six of the core battleground states, with his biggest leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he leads by 6 points or more. The race is tighter in Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.
If the 2016 map stays the same but Biden wins back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he’ll win the White House. Biden is also running close to Trump in states the president won easily in 2016, such as Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.
“The next few weeks are going to be hard,” Dillon said.
Updated at 9:47 a.m.