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Internal Democratic poll: Desiree Tims gains on Mike Turner in Ohio House race

Internal Democratic poll: Desiree Tims gains on Mike Turner in Ohio House race
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Democratic House candidate Desiree Tims (D-Ohio) has made gains against longtime Rep. Mike TurnerMichael Ray TurnerDemocratic lawmakers lambast Trump over Esper firing as GOP remains mum Overnight Defense: How members of the Armed Services committees fared in Tuesday's elections | Military ballots among those uncounted in too-close-to-call presidential race | Ninth US service member killed by COVID-19 Turner fends off Democratic challenge in Ohio MORE (R-Ohio), according to new internal polling data from Tims’ campaign obtained exclusively by The Hill on Tuesday.

A new survey, conducted by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group between Oct. 15-18, shows Turner leading Tims 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, which falls within the new poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, according to a memo from the polling firm that the campaign shared with The Hill. 

The Republican congressman’s current lead in the survey, which shows the two competitors in a statistical tie, is less than half the lead he held over Tims in July, when internal polling data from the firm showed he led Tims by 14 points.

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According to the firm’s memo, 400 likely voters were surveyed for the new poll. The survey, paid for by Tims’ campaign, was conducted on landlines and cell phones.

The new figures come two weeks after Tims’ campaign announced that it raised at least $978,000 in the third quarter of this year. The figure is nearly $600,000 higher than the campaign’s second quarter fundraising total, when it had out-raised Turner’s campaign by more than $300,000.

The campaign’s third quarter fundraising total is also the highest raised by any other House candidate in Ohio’s 10th congressional district, Tim’s campaign confirmed.

Over the summer, Tims, who launched her campaign in August 2019, was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Red to Blue” list, a program the committee says provides candidates already running “strong campaigns” with organizational and fundraising support to flip Republican-held districts.

However, the race between Tims and Turner has still been labeled by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as “likely Republican.”

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Turner, 60, is currently serving his ninth term in the House and easily won reelection in 2018 with 56 percent of the vote. 

Tims, a 32-year-old local activist from West Dayton, was previously elected to serve as President of the Senate Black Legislative Staff Caucus, and has served in senior advisory roles at Child Care Aware of America and League of Conservation Voters.

She also served as an aide for Sens. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownOn The Money: Democrats accuse Mnuchin of sabotaging economy in dispute with Fed | Trump administration proposal takes aim at bank pledges to avoid fossil fuel financing | JPMorgan: Economy will shrink in first quarter due to COVID-19 spike Democrats accuse Mnuchin of sabotaging economy in dispute with Fed McSally, staff asked to break up maskless photo op inside Capitol MORE (D-Ohio) and Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandDemocratic senators urge Facebook to take action on anti-Muslim bigotry Social media responds to Harris making history: 'I feel like our ancestors are rejoicing' Ocasio-Cortez says she doesn't plan on 'staying in the House forever' MORE (D-N.Y.) in the nation's capital, and interned at the White House under former President Obama.

If elected, she would be the first woman and African American to hold the congressional seat, her campaign has confirmed. She is one of a record number of Black women to run for Congress in 2020.

Earlier this week, Tims and Turner went to head to head in their first debate. The new polling data from her campaign comes as the race between both competitors has intensified, with Tims’ campaign launching a new ad earlier this month hitting Turner on healthcare and Turner leveling allegations of campaign violations against his Democratic challenger in the final stretch before Election Day.