The Hill's Campaign Report: Obama to hit the campaign trail l Biden's eye-popping cash advantage l New battleground polls favor Biden

The Hill's Campaign Report: Obama to hit the campaign trail l Biden's eye-popping cash advantage l New battleground polls favor Biden

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail:



Happy Hump Day — we’re exactly 13 days out from Election Day 2020.

And you could feel the energy on the campaign trail today.

Vice President Pence made a stop in Portsmouth, N.H., while Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisWomen set to take key roles in Biden administration Trump campaign appeals dismissal of Pennsylvania election challenge Pressure grows from GOP for Trump to recognize Biden election win MORE (D-Calif.) visited Asheville, N.C. Pence is slated to visit Cincinnati later this evening.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE is also campaigning in North Carolina. He’s set to take part in a MAGA rally at 7 p.m. in Gastonia County. 

Meanwhile, former President Obama is hitting the trail for Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE today, campaigning in Philadelphia. He is slated to deliver remarks this evening.

Obama’s appearance marks his first in-person campaign stop of the 2020 cycle and highlights the importance of the Keystone State in the election.


Trump stumped in Erie, Pa., on Tuesday, and on Wednesday his campaign offered their own rebuttal to Obama’s event, saying in a statement that Biden was using the former president as “reinforcement.” The campaign also questioned how much Obama knew about Hunter Biden’s business ties.

“Obama can’t help Biden defend his own record of putting foreign interests ahead of working Americans in bad trade policies, crushing our energy jobs under massive regulations, killing manufacturing jobs, and refusing to enforce our borders,” the Trump campaign said.

The statement comes as the Trump campaign finds itself falling behind the Biden campaign in polling and in cash on hand just two weeks out from Election Day.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Biden leading Trump by 7.6 percentage points at the national level. Biden also leads Trump in a number of swing states as well.

Additionally, Biden holds a massive cash on hand advantage over Trump. According to new filings with the Federal Election Commission, Biden entered October with more than $177 million in the bank, compared with $63.1 million for Trump.

Biden and Trump will face off in the final presidential debate on Thursday night in Nashville. The debate will mark the first time the two candidates will have met face to face since the first presidential debate earlier this month. Unlike the first debate, which was marked with numerous interruptions, this debate will feature a mute button for the candidate that is not speaking.


A new batch of battlegrounds polling is out today showing Biden leading comfortably in Pennsylvania but a close race in Florida, Texas and Iowa.

Here’s a quick rundown:


If the Keystone State is a potential tipping point for both candidates in the Electoral College, Biden has the advantage heading into the home stretch.

Two new surveys out Wednesday, one from the USA Today-Suffolk University and a separate one from Quinnipiac University, both find Biden leading Trump by 7 points. CNN, meanwhile, found Biden’s lead at 10 points in Pennsylvania.

USA Today found Biden’s favorability rating at net 5 point positive, while Trump is underwater by 10 points. Biden actually led by double digits in Pennsylvania a few weeks ago, according to Quinnipiac, so the race has tightened.

“That post-debate bounce that boosted Joe Biden’s lead to double-digits has fizzled, rewinding the race in Pennsylvania to where it was in September,” said Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow. “Biden’s support remains above 50 percent as President Trump tries to change the trajectory in a crucial state where he receives poor grades on his job performance and his handling of the coronavirus response.”


CNN finds Biden leading Trump 50 to 46 in the Sunshine State. Most expect Florida will ultimately turn on only 1 point or 2. Biden leads by 1.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average but only one survey — conducted by the Trafalgar Group — has found Trump leading in Florida over the past month.

Trafalgar’s pollster Robert Cahaly takes into account so-called “shy” Trump voters who do not want to admit they support him. Here’s what he told Fox News on Wednesday:

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is...What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily," he added. "These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”



Trump won Iowa handily in 2016, so new polls showing him neck and neck with Biden are raising alarms for Republicans.

A New York Times-Siena College survey finds Biden ahead by 3 points in the Hawkeye State. Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstThe Memo: Trump plows ahead with efforts to overturn election More conservatives break with Trump over election claims Peggy Noonan: 'Bogus dispute' by Trump 'doing real damage' MORE (R-Iowa) and Democrat Theresa Greenfield are statistically tied in the poll, with Ernst at 45 and Greenfield at 44.

Biden leads big among women, white college educated people and young voters. He also leads among seniors and has cut into Trump’s advantage with noncollege educated whites.

A separate poll from Monmouth University found the candidates locked in a statistical tie, with Trump at 48 and Biden at 47.


Is the Lone Star State headed for a photo finish? Trump and Biden are tied at 47, according to Quinnipiac. Sen. John CornynJohn CornynTop GOP senator: Biden should be getting intel briefings GOP senator congratulates Biden, says Trump should accept results Trump keeps tight grip on GOP amid divisions MORE (R-Texas) leads Democrat MJ Hegar 49 to 43.