President TrumpDonald TrumpSix big off-year elections you might be missing Twitter suspends GOP Rep. Banks for misgendering trans health official Meghan McCain to Trump: 'Thanks for the publicity' MORE holds a narrow, 4 percentage point lead over former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenRand Paul calls for Fauci's firing over 'lack of judgment' Dems look to keep tax on billionaires in spending bill Six big off-year elections you might be missing MORE in Texas, a state the Democratic nominee has become increasingly eager to contest, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
The poll shows Trump garnering 47 percent of the vote to Biden’s 43 percent. Trump’s lead is slightly outside the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
Biden is performing better in Texas among college-educated white voters than former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSuper PACs release ad campaign hitting Vance over past comments on Trump I voted for Trump in 2020 — he proved to be the ultimate RINO in 2021 Neera Tanden tapped as White House staff secretary MORE did four years ago, notching 38 percent support to Trump’s 54 percent. Clinton captured just 31 percent of those voters, compared with 62 percent who went for Trump.
But Biden’s support among Latino voters is softer than that of Clinton; the poll shows him with the backing of 57 percent of Hispanics, while Trump’s support matches the 34 percent he earned in 2016.
Among independent voters in the Lone Star State, Trump and Biden are statistically tied. Forty-one percent said they back Trump, with 40 percent supporting Biden. In 2016, Trump carried those voters by a comfortable 14-point margin, according to exit polls.
Democrats are making a late play in Texas as recent polls show a tighter-than-expected race there. Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala HarrisObama looks to give new momentum to McAuliffe Kamala Harris engages with heckler during New York speech Biden's safe-space CNN town hall attracts small audience, as poll numbers plummet MORE (D-Calif.), is slated to visit the state later this week. And on Monday, NextGen America, the outside group founded by billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom SteyerTom SteyerYouth voting organization launches M registration effort in key battlegrounds Overnight Energy: 'Eye of fire,' Exxon lobbyist's comments fuel renewed attacks on oil industry | Celebrities push Biden to oppose controversial Minnesota pipeline | More than 75 companies ask Congress to pass clean electricity standard Celebrities push Biden to oppose controversial Minnesota pipeline MORE, announced it is expanding operations into Texas with a six-figure investment.
A win for Biden in Texas would deal a massive blow to Republicans, who have carried the state in every presidential election since 1980 and currently hold the reins of power there.
While the presidential contest in Texas remains tight, those margins do not translate to the state’s closely watched Senate race. The New York Times-Siena College poll showed Sen. John CornynJohn CornynCornyn raises more than M for Senate GOP Is the Biden administration afraid of trade? The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - After high drama, Senate lifts debt limit MORE (R-Texas) leading his Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar 48 percent to 38 percent.
A Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll released over the weekend showed a slightly rosier outlook for Democrats. Biden led Trump in that survey 48 percent to 45 percent, while Cornyn led Hegar by an 8-point margin.
The New York Times-Siena College poll surveyed 802 likely voters in Texas from Oct. 20-25. Most of the interviews were conducted before the final presidential debate last Thursday.