Campaign

Biden on track to win California by largest margin for Democrat in history: poll

Greg Nash

Joe Biden is on track to win California by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state’s history, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The final University of California, Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll released one week before the Nov. 3 election shows Biden leading President Trump in the state 65 percent to 29 percent.

If the survey reflects the actual election results, it would be the largest Democratic victory in The Golden State.

The 36-point difference would trample the previous record set by Hillary Clinton in 2016 when she beat Trump by 30 points.

The largest victory margin came 100 years ago during the 1920 election when Republican Warren G. Harding beat Democrat James Cox by 42 points.

The state has been reliably blue for decades and has not gone to a Republican since George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988.

A major factor for Biden’s high support in the state comes in response to a dislike for Trump, according to the poll. Approximately 55 percent of Biden supporters said their main reason for backing him is because they don’t like the president.

The former vice president enjoys support across virtually all democratic subgroups.

The poll showed 85 percent support among Black voters, 72 percent among Latinos and 71 percent of Asian Americans. He is also leading among voters under the age of 30 by 75 percent.

Among white voters, the Democrat has 61 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 34 percent. However, Trump has a 5-point advantage among one of his base’s core groups — white voters without a college degree — where he leads 50 percent to 45.

Trump’s largest lead is among white, evangelical Christians, who favor him 69 percent to Biden’s 22 percent.

Overall, 2 percent of self-identified Democrats said in the poll that they would vote for Trump while 8 percent of self-identified Republicans say they plan to vote for Biden.

The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted between Oct. 16-21 among 6,686 registered voters, 5,352 of whom are considered likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Tags 2016 election results California campaign poll Donald Trump general election 2020 Hillary Clinton Joe Biden presidential election
See all Hill.TV See all Video