Biden takes 5-point lead over Trump in Georgia in new poll

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHow 'Buy American', other pro-US policies can help advocates pass ambitious climate policies Overnight Defense & National Security — Presented by Raytheon Technologies — Biden backtracks on Taiwan Photos of the Week: Manchin protestor, Paris Hilton and a mirror room MORE has gained the edge over President TrumpDonald TrumpHillicon Valley — Presented by Xerox — Twitter's algorithm boosts right-leaning content, internal study finds Ohio Democrat calls Vance an 'ass----' over Baldwin tweet Matt Taibbi says Trump's rhetoric caused public perception of US intelligence services to shift MORE in Georgia, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows the Democratic presidential nominee with a 5-point lead in the state.

With less than a week to go before Election Day, the poll shows Biden garnering 50 percent support among registered voters in the Peach State, while Trump trails at 45 percent. Biden’s support remains unchanged under different likely voter turnout models, while Trump’s ticks up to 46 percent in a high-turnout model and 48 percent in a low-turnout model.

The poll shows a slight upward movement for Biden since a Monmouth poll released in September found him notching 46 percent support in Georgia to Trump’s 47 percent.

ADVERTISEMENT

Biden’s current lead is not statistically significant, and he now faces the challenge of turning out less engaged voters who haven’t yet cast their ballots. But the poll suggests that the former vice president has the momentum in Georgia heading into the final days of the campaign. 

A loss for Trump in Georgia would be a major blow to his reelection bid. A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t carried Georgia since 1992, and Trump won the state in 2016 by a 5-point margin. 

But the state’s rapidly changing demographics and an influx of new residents in the Atlanta area combined with Democrat Stacey Abrams’s near win in Georgia’s 2018 gubernatorial race have fueled Democrats’ belief that the state is now in play. 

Biden has seen his standing there improve in recent months and has begun making a more aggressive play for the state’s 16 electoral votes. On Tuesday, he traveled to Warm Springs, Ga., a rural town far from the Democratic stronghold of Atlanta. 

Democrats have also taken the lead in Georgia’s two closely watched Senate races, according to the Monmouth poll. In the state’s regularly scheduled Senate election, Democrat Jon OssoffJon OssoffHow 'Buy American', other pro-US policies can help advocates pass ambitious climate policies Democrats jostle over health care priorities for scaled-back package GOP blocks Senate Democrats' revised elections bill MORE now leads Sen. David PerdueDavid PerdueI voted for Trump in 2020 — he proved to be the ultimate RINO in 2021 Draft Georgia congressional lines target McBath, shore up Bourdeaux Trump stokes GOP tensions in Georgia MORE (R-Ga.) 49 percent to 46 percent. The university’s September poll showed Perdue with a 6-point lead over Ossoff. 

ADVERTISEMENT

In the special election for former Sen. Johnny IsaksonJohnny IsaksonHerschel Walker calls off fundraiser with woman who had swastika in Twitter profile Georgia reporter says state will 'continue to be a premier battleground' Critical race theory becomes focus of midterms MORE’s (R-Ga.) seat, Democrat Raphael WarnockRaphael WarnockSenate Democrats call for diversity among new Federal Reserve Bank presidents On The Money — Democrats eye tough choices as deadline looms Warnock pushes Medicaid expansion as equity issue amid Democrats' health care battle MORE garners 41 percent support, up 20 points from September. Meanwhile, his two main Republican opponents, Sen. Kelly LoefflerKelly LoefflerI voted for Trump in 2020 — he proved to be the ultimate RINO in 2021 Draft Georgia congressional lines target McBath, shore up Bourdeaux Warnock picks up major abortion rights group's endorsement in reelection bid MORE (R-Ga.) and Rep. Doug CollinsDouglas (Doug) Allen CollinsLoeffler meets with McConnell amid speculation of another Senate run Georgia agriculture commissioner launches Senate campaign against Warnock Poll shows tight GOP primary for Georgia governor MORE (R-Ga.), captured 21 percent and 18 percent support, respectively.

Under Georgia state rules, if no candidate manages to pass the 50 percent threshold in the special election, the two top vote-getters will head to a runoff, which would take place early next year. 

The poll makes clear how Warnock has benefited from the competition between Loeffler and Collins, who have fought one another over their conservative credentials and loyalty to Trump. In turn, Warnock has so far received little attention from his GOP opponents. 

“The fight for a spot in the runoff has gotten nastier between the two GOP candidates. And the main beneficiary appears to be the Democrat,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.

The Monmouth poll is based on responses from 504 registered voters in Georgia gathered from Oct. 23-27. It has a margin of sampling error of 4.4 percentage points.