Monmouth poll: Biden leads by 7 points in Pennsylvania
A new poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump by 7 points among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a state viewed by many as the tipping point in the battle for 270 Electoral College votes.
The final Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario. That’s down from Biden’s 11-point lead in the same poll from last month.
In a low-turnout scenario, Biden’s lead shrinks to 5 points, 50 to 45. The September poll found Biden leading by 8 points in the low turnout scenario among likely voters. The previous poll was conducted shortly after the first presidential debate.
Both Biden and Trump will campaign in Pennsylvania on Monday. For Trump, Pennsylvania represents his best shot at holding on to one of the former “blue wall” states he flipped in 2016, as polls show Biden with comfortable leads in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Biden leads by 4.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average of Pennsylvania, down from 7.3 points in mid-October.
“All eyes have been on the Keystone State from the start,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Pennsylvania voters may have responded more than most to key events, such as the conventions and the debates. This potential for movement is one reason why both campaigns have spent so much time there.”
Biden leads by 40 points in the counties Hillary Clinton carried by about 35 points in 2016. Trump leads by 20 points in the counties he won easily in 2016, down from his 34-point margin that year.
In the 10 swing counties that were closest in 2016, Trump leads 49 to 45. That’s a big swing in Trump’s favor, as Biden led in those counties by 11 points only one month ago.
“Northeast Pennsylvania and other swing areas of the state are as hotly contested as they were four years ago,” Murray said. “Even without an advantage in this region, Biden is able to hold a statewide lead on the back of strong support in core blue areas along with his ability to nibble away at Trump’s margins in deep red areas.”
Biden leads by 16 points among whites with a college degree, while Trump leads by 21 points among non-college educated whites.
Biden leads by 22 points among voters under the age of 50, while Trump leads by 14 points among voters aged 50 to 64.
The candidates are tied among the oldest subset of voters. Biden led by 10 points among seniors in the prior Monmouth survey. Trump carried seniors by 10 points in 2016.
“The senior vote is up for grabs in Pennsylvania given the margin of error, but could end up decisively in either candidate’s camp on Tuesday,” Murray said. “However, the trend in this poll is in line with recent Monmouth polls in Florida and Georgia last week, suggesting that Trump may be clawing back a little bit of the senior vote in the campaign’s final days while Biden is strengthening his position among younger voters and people of color.”
The Monmouth poll of 502 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1 and has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error.