Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections

Members of the House and Senate have stockpiled a collective $645 million in campaign cash as they begin the slow run toward next year’s midterm elections.

That money offers early hints about the emerging battlegrounds in those elections where each party sees opportunities on the critical path forward.

Here are six takeaways from The Hill’s analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission reports:

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Vulnerable Senate Democrats know they’re vulnerable

Sens. Raphael WarnockRaphael WarnockHarris's bad polls trigger Democratic worries ObamaCare 2.0 is a big funding deal Kaseya ransomware attack highlights cyber vulnerabilities of small businesses MORE (D-Ga.) and Mark KellyMark KellyPeter Thiel flexes financial muscle ahead of 2022 Harris's bad polls trigger Democratic worries Bipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor MORE (D-Ariz.) have been in Washington for just a few months, but they are already emerging as the best fundraisers in the Senate.

Warnock pulled in $7.2 million in the last quarter, and Kelly trailed with $6 million. They both have big early totals, with more money on hand than all but Senate Majority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerManchin on reported boos at Democratic luncheon: 'I heard a lot of nos' Wisconsin GOP quietly prepares Ron Johnson backup plans Senate infrastructure talks spill over into rare Sunday session MORE (D-N.Y.) and Sens. Tim ScottTimothy (Tim) Eugene ScottTrump helps raise million in first six months of 2021 Senate passes bill to award Congressional Gold Medal to first Black NHL player Scott: 'There is hope' for police reform bill MORE (R-S.C.) and John ThuneJohn Randolph ThuneBiden's bipartisan deal faces Senate gauntlet Senate votes to take up infrastructure deal Senators say they have deal on 'major issues' in infrastructure talks MORE (R-S.D.).

Among other potentially vulnerable Senate Democrats, Sens. Catherine Cortez MastoCatherine Marie Cortez MastoBiden backs effort to include immigration in budget package Biden to meet with 11 Democratic lawmakers on DACA: report Western US airports face jet fuel shortage MORE (Nev.) and Maggie HassanMargaret (Maggie) HassanThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Officers recount the horror of Jan. 6 Trump says he'd like to see Chris Sununu challenge Hassan Poll: Potential Sununu-Hassan matchup in N.H. a dead heat  MORE (N.H.) have started building formidable stockpiles. The two first-termers both have more than $6.5 million in the bank.

Slow raisers raise questions

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On the other side of the ledger are Sens. Chuck GrassleyChuck GrassleyBiden's bipartisan deal faces Senate gauntlet The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - US gymnast wins all-around gold as Simone Biles cheers from the stands The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - A huge win for Biden, centrist senators MORE (R-Iowa) and Patrick LeahyPatrick Joseph LeahyThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden sets new vaccine mandate as COVID-19 cases surge House clears .1 billion Capitol security bill, sending to Biden Senate passes .1 billion Capitol security bill MORE (D-Vt.). Both men are among the oldest and longest-serving senators in office — if Leahy were to win reelection, he would set the record for the longest tenure in the Senate — and both are the subject of constant retirement rumors.

Neither has formally said they will seek reelection, and both took it easy on the fundraising circuit in the last three months. Grassley, 87, raised $625,000, and Leahy, 81, pulled in $432,000. Grassley has about $2.5 million in the bank, and Leahy’s account stands just under $2 million.

It’s not likely that either Grassley or Leahy would face truly competitive races if they decide to run again, so they don’t need the biggest fundraising totals in the Senate. But if either is hoping to squelch retirement rumors, these reports won’t do the trick.

Speaking of retirement rumors: Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonWisconsin GOP quietly prepares Ron Johnson backup plans Biden's bipartisan deal faces Senate gauntlet Trump urged DOJ officials to call election corrupt 'and leave the rest to me' MORE (R-Wis.) raised $1.2 million last quarter. That's good, but not great, and he’s got just $1.7 million in the bank. It's also less than all but one other senator up for reelection next year, Sen. James LankfordJames Paul LankfordAbbott slams Ben & Jerry's for Palestine support: 'Disgraceful' Democrat stalls Biden's border nominee Republican calls on Oklahoma to ban Ben & Jerry's MORE (R-Okla.). Lankford has said he will run for another term; Johnson has not.

Red-state Democrats make early waves

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Democrats have been frustrated by Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida in recent years, prototypical swing states that have moved to the right. But three candidates are giving Democrats the early hope that they can recapture the working-class voters who once defined the party.

In Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) has proven one of the more adept fundraisers of the year. He raised $2.5 million in the last cycle, and he’s got $3 million in the bank. The tattooed, goateed and tie-averse former mayor of a small western Pennsylvania town is well ahead of his Democratic rivals.

In Ohio, Rep. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanHouse passes spending bill to boost Capitol Police and Hill staffer pay Tim Ryan slams McCarthy for mocking Capitol physician, mask mandate Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections MORE (D) is building his own impressive stockpile. An anemic presidential campaign has turned into a well-funded Senate bid. Ryan raised $3.1 million in the last quarter, and he’s got $2.5 million in the bank.

But both Fetterman and Ryan could take a page from Rep. Val DemingsValdez (Val) Venita DemingsThe Hill's Morning Report - Surging COVID-19 infections loom over US, Olympics Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Cuba, Haiti pose major challenges for Florida Democrats MORE (D-Fla.), the former Orlando police chief now taking on Sen. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioSenate holds sleepy Saturday session as negotiators finalize infrastructure deal Break glass in case of emergency — but not for climate change Democrats join GOP in pressuring Biden over China, virus origins MORE (R-Fla.). Demings raised almost $4.7 million last quarter, with more individual contributions than any other challenger running for a Senate seat this year.

Trump’s blessing isn’t a ticket to riches

The Republicans who voted to impeach former President TrumpDonald TrumpSenators introduce bipartisan infrastructure bill in rare Sunday session Gosar's siblings pen op-ed urging for his resignation: 'You are immune to shame' Sunday shows - Delta variant, infrastructure dominate MORE have been among the best fundraisers of any members of the House of Representatives. Rep. Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyGosar's siblings pen op-ed urging for his resignation: 'You are immune to shame' Kinzinger supports Jan. 6 panel subpoenas for Republicans, including McCarthy Photos of the Week: Olympic sabre semi-finals, COVID-19 vigil and a loris MORE (R-Wyo.) pulled in $1.9 million in the last three months, Rep. Adam KinzingerAdam Daniel KinzingerSunday shows - Delta variant, infrastructure dominate A new kind of hero? Last week's emotional TV may be a sign Kinzinger supports Jan. 6 panel subpoenas for Republicans, including McCarthy MORE (R-Ill.) raised $800,000 and Rep. Anthony GonzalezAnthony GonzalezSix takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Pro-impeachment Republicans outpace GOP rivals in second-quarter fundraising Governors' races see flood of pro-Trump candidates MORE (R-Ohio) raised $600,000.

Trump is eager to get revenge, and he’s endorsed challengers against at least some of those apostates.

But Trump’s endorsements haven’t unleashed the fundraising floodgates. Max Miller, the Trump-backed candidate challenging Gonzalez, raised $443,000 in the last quarter, an impressive start but nothing wild. In Alaska, former state administrator Kelly Tshibaka (R) raised $544,000 in her bid to challenge Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiBill would honor Ginsburg, O'Connor with statues at Capitol The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - US gymnast wins all-around gold as Simone Biles cheers from the stands The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - A huge win for Biden, centrist senators MORE (R), less than half of the incumbent's totals.

The results show Trump makes noise, but so far he’s not shaking the money tree for his chosen candidates.

For House members, the louder, the better

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Here’s a list of House members who raised the most money in the last three months: Reps. Steve ScaliseStephen (Steve) Joseph ScaliseRepublican governors revolt against CDC mask guidance House to resume mask mandate after new CDC guidance What you need to know about the new COVID-19 surge MORE (R-La.), Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthySunday shows - Delta variant, infrastructure dominate Kinzinger supports Jan. 6 panel subpoenas for Republicans, including McCarthy McCarthy jokes it'll be hard not to 'hit' Pelosi with gavel if he is Speaker MORE (R-Calif.), Dan CrenshawDaniel CrenshawThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Officers recount the horror of Jan. 6 Jake Ellzey defeats Trump-backed candidate in Texas House runoff Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections MORE (R-Texas), Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiManchin on reported boos at Democratic luncheon: 'I heard a lot of nos' Kinzinger supports Jan. 6 panel subpoenas for Republicans, including McCarthy Ocasio-Cortez: Democrats can't blame GOP for end of eviction moratorium MORE (D-Calif.), Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Adam SchiffAdam Bennett SchiffA new kind of hero? Last week's emotional TV may be a sign Officers offer harrowing accounts at first Jan. 6 committee hearing Live coverage: House panel holds first hearing on Jan. 6 probe MORE (D-Calif.), Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezOcasio-Cortez: 'More than enough' votes to prevent infrastructure from passing without reconciliation bill Manchin: 'I can't really guarantee anybody' reconciliation package will pass Sunday shows - Delta variant, infrastructure dominate MORE (D-N.Y.), Cheney, Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanKinzinger supports Jan. 6 panel subpoenas for Republicans, including McCarthy Jordan acknowledges talking to Trump on Jan. 6 AP Fact Check rates GOP claim Pelosi blocked National Guard on Jan. 6 'false' MORE (R-Ohio), Neal DunnNeal Patrick DunnSix takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Acting FTC chair urges Congress to revive agency authority after Supreme Court decision OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Nine, including former Michigan governor, charged over Flint water crisis | Regulator finalizes rule forcing banks to serve oil, gun companies | Trump admin adds hurdle to increase efficiency standards for furnaces, water heaters MORE (R-Fla.), Marjorie Taylor GreeneMarjorie Taylor GreeneGOP efforts to downplay danger of Capitol riot increase The Memo: What now for anti-Trump Republicans? Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene says she's meeting with Trump 'soon' in Florida MORE (R-Ga.) and Matt GaetzMatthew (Matt) GaetzPhotos of the Week: Olympic sabre semi-finals, COVID-19 vigil and a loris The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - CDC equates Delta to chickenpox in contagiousness Gaetz, Greene and Gohmert turned away from jail to visit Jan. 6 defendants MORE (R-Fla.).

What do they have in common? They are either in leadership, or they are darlings of partisan news outlets.

Crenshaw is a regular on Fox News. Greene, Jordan and Gaetz are more likely to pop up on OAN or Newsmax. Porter and Schiff are MSNBC regulars, and Ocasio-Cortez appears wherever and whenever she wants.

The lesson for younger and aspiring members of Congress: Television is your ticket to riches.

One exception, however, may be Dunn. The Florida congressman hasn't appeared on a national media platform in months and most of the contributions to his campaign in the second quarter came from state and local donors.

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The future of the House Democratic Caucus

Several of the House Democrats who first won election in 2018 are beginning to show themselves as some of the most adept fundraisers in politics today.

Porter, the Orange County Democrat who unseated Republican Mimi WaltersMarian (Mimi) Elaine WaltersSix takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Former GOP Rep. Walters joins energy company GOP plots comeback in Orange County MORE, has almost $13 million in the bank. Rep. Josh GottheimerJoshua (Josh) GottheimerLawmakers can't reconcile weakening the SALT cap with progressive goals Lawmakers spend more on personal security in wake of insurrection Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections MORE (D-N.J.) has $10 million on hand. Reps. Josh Harder (D-Calif.), Antonio DelgadoAntonio Ramon DelgadoSix takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Cuomo job approval drops 6 points amid nursing home controversy: poll Cuomo takes heat from all sides on nursing home scandal MORE (D-N.Y.) and Mikie SherrillRebecca (Mikie) Michelle SherrillDemocrat unveils bill to allow only House members to serve as Speaker Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Moderate Democrats call for 9/11-style panel to probe COVID-19 origins MORE (D-N.J.) all have more than $4 million in the bank, and Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) isn’t far off that mark.

Fundraising ability isn’t determinative in Congress, but it sure helps members vault to leadership and top committee positions. Keep an eye on those younger members, especially as an older generation of leaders nears the end of their careers.