President Obama’s negotiated tax deal with congressional Republicans appears to have the votes in the Senate, but passage in the House will be far more difficult.
House Democrats, including leadership officials, have strongly criticized the compromise plan. In a major development, the House Democratic Caucus on Thursday rejected the tax deal negotiated between the White House and Senate Republicans.
Republicans, meanwhile, have praised it.
Assuming all but five House Republicans will vote “yes” — Reps. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeFlake donating unused campaign funds to Arizona nonprofit focused on elections: report Biden nominates former Sen. Tom Udall as New Zealand ambassador Biden to nominate Jane Hartley as UK ambassador: report MORE (R-Ariz.), Jason ChaffetzJason ChaffetzCongress's latest hacking investigation should model its most recent Fox News Audio expands stable of podcasts by adding five new shows The myth of the conservative bestseller MORE (R-Utah), Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Michele BachmannMichele Marie BachmannBoehner says he voted for Trump, didn't push back on election claims because he's retired Boehner: Trump 'stepped all over their loyalty' by lying to followers Boehner finally calls it as he sees it MORE (R-Minn.) and Steve King (R-Iowa) have indicated they will likely vote against the deal — the White House needs 44 House Democrats to clear the plan through the lower chamber. In order to scuttle it, 213 Democrats will need to vote no.
But the problem for the White House is that House Democrats control the floor agenda, so there is no guarantee of floor action this month. The Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire Dec. 31.
Most of the “Firm No” votes have signed on to a letter written by Rep. Peter WelchPeter Francis WelchDemocrats weigh changes to drug pricing measure to win over moderates Schumer feels heat to get Manchin and Sinema on board Failed drug vote points to bigger challenges for Democrats MORE (D-Vt.) that opposes the president’s new proposal.
Please send any updates to Bob Cusack at firstname.lastname@example.org.
LAST UPDATED ON DEC. 16 AT 3:51 p.m.
Firm or Likely No — Republicans (5)
Michele Bachmann (Minn.) — The outspoken legislator said on CNN that she opposes the deal, claiming it would raise taxes.
Jason Chaffetz (Utah) — May challenge Sen. Orrin HatchOrrin Grant HatchLobbying world Congress, stop holding 'Dreamers' hostage Drug prices are declining amid inflation fears MORE (R-Utah) next year. Hatch supports the deal.
Jeff Flake (Ariz.) — Flake told The Daily Caller that he has major concerns about the size of the package.
Steve King (Iowa) — King said on Fox News he is a likely no.
Mike Pence (Ind.) — In an interview with Sean Hannity, Pence likened the package to "more stimulus."
Firm No — Democrats (72)
Joe Baca (Calif.) — Called it "bad policy," according to Redlands Daily.
Earl BlumenauerEarl BlumenauerIlhan Omar to Biden: 'Deliver on your promise to cancel student debt' Milestone bill would bar imports linked to forest destruction First new congressional map approved in Oregon after 2020 Census MORE (Ore.)
Judy Chu (Calif.)
Yvette Clarke (N.Y.)
James Clyburn (S.C.) — The majority whip is a firm no.
Steve Cohen (Tenn.)
John Conyers (Mich.) — Judiciary Committee chairman has been outspoken against the deal.
Elijah Cummings (Md.)
Danny Davis (Ill.)
Peter DeFazio (Ore.) — DeFazio is not shy in bucking White House; he opposed the stimulus.
Diana DeGette (Colo.) — Does not support "Bush tax cuts for the wealthy."
Bill Delahunt (Mass.) — Retiring from Congress.
Donna Edwards (Md.)
Keith Ellison (Minn.)
Anna Eshoo (Calif.) — Close friend of the Speaker.
Sam FarrSamuel (Sam) Sharon FarrMedical marijuana supporters hopeful about government funding bill Marijuana advocates to give away free joints on Capitol Hill DEA decision against reclassifying marijuana ignores public opinion MORE (Calif.)
Bob Filner (Calif.) — One of several chairmen who will vote no.
Barney Frank (Mass.) — The Massachusetts lawmaker said on MSNBC Dec. 8 he “won’t vote for it,” but believes the deal will pass.
John GaramendiJohn Raymond GaramendiWhy is Biden doubling down on Trump's nuclear expansion? Overnight Defense & National Security — Pentagon officials get grilling from House Defense secretary blames State Department for delay in Afghanistan evacuation MORE (Calif.)
Alan GraysonAlan Mark GraysonDeSantis tops Crist, Fried in poll of Florida governor race Florida Rep. Val Demings officially enters Senate race against Rubio Demings raises Democrats' hopes in uphill fight to defeat Rubio MORE (Fla.)
Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) — Progressive leader in the House.
Luis GutierrezLuis Vicente GutierrezIllinois Democrats propose new 'maximized' congressional map Biden's inauguration marked by conflict of hope and fear The Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic primary fight shifts to South Carolina, Nevada MORE (Ill.) — This Illinois lawmaker has criticized Obama throughout 111th Congress.
Phil Hare (Ill.)
Alcee Hastings (Fla.)
Martin HeinrichMartin Trevor HeinrichDemocrats say they're committed to reducing emissions in Biden plan GOP lawmakers introduce measure in support of Columbus Day Overnight Equilibrium/Sustainability — Presented by Schneider Electric — Deadly Ida floodwaters grip southeast US MORE (N.M.)
Maurice Hinchey (N.Y.)
Mazie HironoMazie Keiko HironoDemocrats look for plan B on filibuster Progressives push back on decision to shrink Biden's paid family leave program Democrats at odds with Manchin over child tax credit provision MORE (Hawaii)
Rush Holt (N.J.)
Jay Inslee (Wash.) — In an MSNBC interview, Inslee called for package to be significantly changed.
Jessie Jackson Jr. (Ill.)
Sheila Jackson LeeSheila Jackson LeeBest shot at narrowing racial homeownership gap at risk, progressives say Youth voting organization launches M registration effort in key battlegrounds The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Alibaba - Gears begin to shift in Congress on stalled Biden agenda MORE (Texas)
Paul Kanjorski (Pa.)
Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) — A darling of the left, Kucinich voted yes on healthcare, but will vote no on taxes.
Barbara Lee (Calif.) — CBC chairwoman is a firm no.
John Lewis (Ga.)
Ben Luján (N.M.)
Stephen Lynch (Mass.) — Voted no on healthcare despite intense lobbying from White House.
Doris Matsui (Calif.)
Betty McCollum (Minn.)
Jim McDermottJames (Jim) Adelbert McDermottSondland has 'no intention of resigning,' associate says Three women accuse Gordon Sondland of sexual misconduct Portland hotel chain founded by Trump ambassador says boycott is attack on employees MORE (Wash.)
Jim McGovern (Mass.)
Michael Michaud (Maine) — Has been outspoken against Obama’s efforts on trade.
George Miller (Calif.) — Pelosi confidant wants major alterations to package.
Jim MoranJames (Jim) Patrick MoranThe Hill's Top Lobbyists 2020 Lawmakers toast Greta Van Susteren's new show Star-studded cast to perform play based on Mueller report MORE (Va.)
Jerrold Nadler (N.Y.)
Jim Oberstar (Minn.) — Another chairman who will vote no.
David Obey (Wis.) — Likened deal to "garbage," according to the National Journal.
John Olver (Mass.)
Donald Payne (N.J.) — "We want a fair deal," he said at a recent press conference.
Chellie Pingree (Maine)
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) — One of the most conservative Dems on this list.
David Price (N.C.)
Tim Ryan (Ohio)
Linda Sanchez (Calif.)
Jan Schakowsky (Ill.)
Kurt Schrader (Ore.)
Bobby ScottRobert (Bobby) Cortez ScottDemocratic retirements could make a tough midterm year even worse Watchdog: 7 members of Congress allegedly failed to disclose stock trades Pressure builds on Democratic leadership over HBCU funding MORE (Va.) — Appeared at a press conference to criticize the deal.
Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.)
Brad Sherman (Calif.) — Has floated ideas to leadership on how to change the deal.
Adam SmithDavid (Adam) Adam SmithOvernight Defense & National Security — Presented by Raytheon Technologies — House lawmakers eye military pay raise next year House lawmakers want military pay raise for enlisted troops Overnight Defense & National Security — Presented by Raytheon Technologies — Navy probe reveals disastrous ship fire response MORE (Wash.)
Jackie Speier (Calif.)
Pete Stark (Calif.) — One of many California Dems who will vote no.
Betty Sutton (Ohio)
Bennie Thompson (Miss.) — Thompson chairs the Homeland Security Committee.
Mike Thompson (Calif.)
Paul Tonko (N.Y.)
Edolphus Towns (N.Y.) — Another chairman opposed to the president's proposal.
Anthony Weiner (N.Y.)
Peter Welch (Vt.) — Spearheaded the letter to rally House Dems to vote no.
Lynn Woolsey (Calif.) — Progressive leader in the House.
David Wu (Ore.)
John YarmuthJohn Allen YarmuthDemocrats at odds with Manchin over child tax credit provision The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Uber - Biden, Democrats dig into legislative specifics Two House Democrats to retire ahead of challenging midterms MORE (Ky.)
Leaning No (10)
Gary Ackerman (N.Y.)
G.K. ButterfieldGeorge (G.K.) Kenneth ButterfieldProgressives cheer, moderates groan as Biden visit caps chaotic week Biden visits Capitol with agenda in the balance WHIP LIST: How House Democrats, Republicans say they'll vote on infrastructure bill MORE (N.C.)
Rosa DeLauro (Conn.)
John Larson (Conn.) — Called the proposal “troubling.”
Edward MarkeyEd MarkeyUnder pressure, Democrats cut back spending House passes bills to secure telecommunications infrastructure Emanuel to take hot seat in Senate confirmation hearing MORE (Mass.)
Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphyDemocrats look for plan B on filibuster The Memo: Cuts to big bill vex Democrats Democrats struggle to sell Biden plan amid feuding MORE (Conn.) — Doesn’t favor tax breaks for the wealthy.
Richard Neal (Mass.)
Bill Pascrell (N.J.) — Said this week he's leaning no.
Bart Stupak (Mich.)
Chris Van Hollen (Md.) — Dem leader said on MSNBC that the estate tax provision “makes it very, very difficult for me to support [the deal] in its current form.”
Firm Yes (44)
John Adler (N.J.)
Jason Altmire (Pa.)
John BarrowJohn Jenkins BarrowDraft Georgia congressional lines target McBath, shore up Bourdeaux On The Trail: The political losers of 2020 Republican wins Georgia secretary of state runoff to replace Kemp MORE (Ga.)
Sanford Bishop (Ga.)
Shelley Berkley (Nev.)
Dan Boren (Okla.)— One of the most conservative Democrats in the House.
Rick Boucher (Va.) — Boucher, who lost his reelection bid, is a yes, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) — Blue Dog Democrat says he supports the compromise.
Chris Carney (Pa.)
Gerry ConnollyGerald (Gerry) Edward ConnollyBiden struggles to rein in Saudi Arabia amid human rights concerns Trump company in late-stage talks to sell DC hotel: report Trump Hotel lost more than M during presidency, say documents MORE (Va.) — He barely won reelection and represents affluent Fairfax County.
Jim Cooper (Tenn.)
Henry Cuellar (Texas)
Lincoln Davis (Tenn.)
Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyBiden to have audience with pope, attend G20 summit Biden taps former Indiana Sen. Donnelly as ambassador to Vatican Republicans may regret restricting reproductive rights MORE (Ind.)
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.)
Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.)
Bart Gordon (Tenn.)
Jane Harman (Calif.) — Dislikes parts of it, but has embraced the package.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.)
Baron Hill (Ind.)
Jim Himes (Conn) — Represents affluent Fairfield County, is a firm yes.
Paul Hodes (N.H.)
Tim Holden (Pa.)
Patrick Kennedy (R.I.) — Kennedy retiring from Congress.
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) — In a Dec. 15 statement, Lipinksi said, "During these tough economic times we cannot afford to raise taxes... ."
Jim Marshall (Ga.)
Jim MathesonJames (Jim) David MathesonMcAdams concedes to Owens in competitive Utah district Trump EPA eases standards for coal ash disposal Utah redistricting reform measure likely to qualify for ballot MORE (Utah)
Mike McIntyre (N.C.)
Walt Minnick (Idaho)
Mike McMahon (N.Y.)
Dennis Moore (Kan.)
Scott Murphy (N.Y.) — The good outweighs the bad, Murphy said, according to wnyt.com.
Glenn Nye (Va.)
Gary Peters (Mich.) — White House noted his backing in a press release.
Collin Peterson (Minn.)
Mike Ross (Ark.) — Frequently disagrees with party leadership. Says he plans to vote for it.
Steve Rothman (N.J.) — "For millions of unemployed Americans, this bill literally means food on their table."
Mark Schauer (Mich.) — White House touted his endorsement of the plan.
David Scott (Ga.)
Joe Sestak (Pa.) — Will do so reluctantly.
Heath Shuler (N.C.)
Harry Teague (N.M.)
Dina Titus (Nev.)
Charlie Wilson (Ohio)
Leaning Yes (5)
Tim BishopTimothy (Tim) Howard BishopOn The Trail: The political losers of 2020 Dem candidate 'struck by the parallels' between Trump's rise and Hitler's Dems separated by 29 votes in NY House primary MORE (N.Y.)
Joe Courtney (Conn.)
Carolyn McCarthyCarolyn McCarthyWhy Congress needs an openly atheist member, now Lobbying World Lobbying world MORE (N.Y.)
Bill Owens (N.Y.)
Tim Walz (Minn.)
— Michael M. Gleeson, Russell Berman, Mike Lillis, Bob Cusack, Kevin Cullum, Hayleigh Colombo and Hannah Brenton contributed to this list.