Ryan has little margin for error in Speaker vote

Republican lawmakers who voted against Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanUnscripted Trump keeps audience guessing in Rose Garden Coulter defends Paul Ryan: This is 100 percent Trump's fault The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Kidney Care Partners — Trump escalates border fight with emergency declaration MORE (R-Wis.) for Speaker aren’t saying whether they’ll vote for him in a new election next year.

Nine House Republicans rejected Ryan in the special election to replace Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBill Clinton jokes no one would skip Dingell's funeral: 'Only time' we could get the last word Left flexes muscle in immigration talks Former Ryan aide moves to K street MORE (R-Ohio) one year ago Saturday.

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Eight of them will have a chance to vote for Ryan again.

Rep. Dave Brat (Va.), one of the eight, said his public criticisms of Ryan have never been personal.

Like he did last year, Brat plans to present all leadership candidates five policy requests on things like trade, immigration and regular order. He’ll support those candidates who pledge to uphold those policies.

“Whoever signs off on those, I’ll vote yes,” Brat said.

Reps. Randy WeberRandall (Randy) Keith WeberHouse passes bill expressing support for NATO Texas governor, top lawmakers tell Trump not to use hurricane relief funds to build border wall To protect the environment, Trump should investigate Russian collusion MORE (Texas), Ted YohoTheodore (Ted) Scott YohoThe new Democratic Congress has an opportunity to move legislation to help horses On The Money: Trump says he won't declare emergency 'so fast' | Shutdown poised to become longest in history | Congress approves back pay for workers | More federal unions sue over shutdown The 7 Republicans who voted against back pay for furloughed workers MORE (Fla.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Louie GohmertLouis (Louie) Buller GohmertTrump met with group led by Ginni Thomas at White House: report House passes bill expressing support for NATO The Memo: Trump veers between hard-liner, dealmaker on shutdown MORE (Texas), Paul GosarPaul Anthony GosarHouse passes bill expressing support for NATO McCarthy, allies retaliate against Freedom Caucus leader On The Money: Trump says he won't declare emergency 'so fast' | Shutdown poised to become longest in history | Congress approves back pay for workers | More federal unions sue over shutdown MORE (Ariz.), Walter Jones (N.C.), Bill Posey (Fla.) and Curt Clawson (Fla.) are the other Republicans who voted for Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) in last year’s vote.

Aides to Weber, Yoho and Massie said they did not know how their bosses would vote in the next Speaker’s election.

Spokespersons for Gohmert, Jones, Posey and Gosar did not respond to emails seeking comment, though Gosar has been openly critical of Ryan for working with Democrats to pass a stopgap government-funding bill.

“How’d that work out for John Boehner?” Gosar, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, told The Hill in September.

Clawson is not running for reelection and will not have a vote.

Ryan is almost certain to face a tougher reelection fight after a tumultuous year in which he has publicly feuded with Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump nominates ambassador to Turkey Trump heads to Mar-a-Lago after signing bill to avert shutdown CNN, MSNBC to air ad turned down by Fox over Nazi imagery MORE, the Republican nominee for president.

Republicans will first hold closed-door leadership elections next month, where only a majority vote within the conference is needed for victory.

The more critical vote will come in January, a public roll call in which lawmakers will shout out the name of their choice for Speaker from the House floor. Ryan will need 218 votes for victory.

With the current 246-seat GOP majority, losing all eight votes isn’t such a big deal.

It would leave Ryan with 238 votes, 20 more than the threshold he needs.

But with Republicans widely expected to lose seats in the Nov. 8 election, Ryan is likely to have much less room for error.

With a 226-seat majority, for example, Ryan would be right at 218 if all eight Republicans vote against him.

Trump may add to Ryan’s problems.

The businessman has repeatedly criticized Ryan’s leadership and was stung after the Speaker said he would not longer defend Trump after a 2005 tape emerged in which the GOP nominee speaks lewdly about groping and kissing women.

Win or lose on Nov. 8, Trump could put pressure on House Republicans to oppose Ryan in a speakership contest.

The presence of Trump campaign chairman Steve Bannon is another factor.

As an executive with Breitbart news, Bannon has made it his mission to depose Ryan. He is unlikely to stop causing trouble for the Speaker after the election.

A big question mark is what the House Freedom Caucus decides to do. The conservative group, which is credited for pushing BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerBill Clinton jokes no one would skip Dingell's funeral: 'Only time' we could get the last word Left flexes muscle in immigration talks Former Ryan aide moves to K street MORE out last year, endorsed Webster for Speaker last year. But after Ryan beat Webster in the closed-door, internal vote, most of the group’s leaders supported Ryan in the public floor vote.

Freedom leaders now are pressing Ryan to delay the House GOP leadership elections until after the lame-duck session. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and other conservatives say they want to see how Ryan handles a fiscal 2017 spending bill and other items after the election before voting to give him another two years. But there is no indication that Ryan plans to grant their request.

Other Freedom members, like Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), are still furious with Ryan for ditching Trump.

“I have not made up my mind how I’ll vote yet,” DesJarlais said. “It depends on who runs.”

So far, no viable candidate has stepped up to challenge Ryan in the Speaker’s race. Webster, the former Speaker of the Florida state House, indicated he probably wouldn’t run again for the top job on Capitol Hill.

“I don’t think the conference is interested in a principle-based, member-driven Congress,” Webster told The Hill on Wednesday.

Webster is one of a number of other lawmakers whose votes will be closely watched in the Speakership election.

The central Florida lawmaker said he’s focused “100 percent” on his congressional race and hasn’t yet thought of whether he’ll vote to give Ryan another two-year term.

Republican Jim Banks, who's the favorite to win an open House seat in Indiana, plans to join the Freedom Caucus but said backing Ryan is a no-brainer. The two recently campaigned together in the Hoosier State. 
 
"Yes, I plan to support Paul Ryan," Banks said. "He is the substantive leader our party and country needs right now."