Ryan has little margin for error in Speaker vote

Republican lawmakers who voted against Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanKenosha will be a good bellwether in 2020 At indoor rally, Pence says election runs through Wisconsin Juan Williams: Breaking down the debates MORE (R-Wis.) for Speaker aren’t saying whether they’ll vote for him in a new election next year.

Nine House Republicans rejected Ryan in the special election to replace Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerLongtime House parliamentarian to step down Five things we learned from this year's primaries Bad blood between Pelosi, Meadows complicates coronavirus talks MORE (R-Ohio) one year ago Saturday.

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Eight of them will have a chance to vote for Ryan again.

Rep. Dave Brat (Va.), one of the eight, said his public criticisms of Ryan have never been personal.

Like he did last year, Brat plans to present all leadership candidates five policy requests on things like trade, immigration and regular order. He’ll support those candidates who pledge to uphold those policies.

“Whoever signs off on those, I’ll vote yes,” Brat said.

Reps. Randy WeberRandall (Randy) Keith WeberOVERNIGHT ENERGY: Cheney asks DOJ to probe environmental groups | Kudlow: 'No sector worse hurt than energy' during pandemic | Trump pledges 'no politics' in Pebble Mine review Cheney asks DOJ to probe environmental groups  GOP's Gohmert introduces resolution that would ban the Democratic Party MORE (Texas), Ted YohoTheodore (Ted) Scott YohoKat Cammack wins Florida GOP primary in bid for Ted Yoho's seat The Hill's Convention Report: Democrats gear up for Day Two of convention Eyes turn to Ocasio-Cortez as she seeks to boost Biden MORE (Fla.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Louie GohmertLouis (Louie) Buller GohmertRep. Dan Meuser tests positive for COVID-19 Watchdog calls for probe into Gohmert 'disregarding public health guidance' on COVID-19 Massie plans to donate plasma after testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies MORE (Texas), Paul GosarPaul Anthony GosarPelosi must go — the House is in dire need of new leadership LWCF modernization: Restoring the promise Trump tweets his people have all left Drudge MORE (Ariz.), Walter Jones (N.C.), Bill Posey (Fla.) and Curt Clawson (Fla.) are the other Republicans who voted for Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) in last year’s vote.

Aides to Weber, Yoho and Massie said they did not know how their bosses would vote in the next Speaker’s election.

Spokespersons for Gohmert, Jones, Posey and Gosar did not respond to emails seeking comment, though Gosar has been openly critical of Ryan for working with Democrats to pass a stopgap government-funding bill.

“How’d that work out for John Boehner?” Gosar, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, told The Hill in September.

Clawson is not running for reelection and will not have a vote.

Ryan is almost certain to face a tougher reelection fight after a tumultuous year in which he has publicly feuded with Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpFederal prosecutor speaks out, says Barr 'has brought shame' on Justice Dept. Former Pence aide: White House staffers discussed Trump refusing to leave office Progressive group buys domain name of Trump's No. 1 Supreme Court pick MORE, the Republican nominee for president.

Republicans will first hold closed-door leadership elections next month, where only a majority vote within the conference is needed for victory.

The more critical vote will come in January, a public roll call in which lawmakers will shout out the name of their choice for Speaker from the House floor. Ryan will need 218 votes for victory.

With the current 246-seat GOP majority, losing all eight votes isn’t such a big deal.

It would leave Ryan with 238 votes, 20 more than the threshold he needs.

But with Republicans widely expected to lose seats in the Nov. 8 election, Ryan is likely to have much less room for error.

With a 226-seat majority, for example, Ryan would be right at 218 if all eight Republicans vote against him.

Trump may add to Ryan’s problems.

The businessman has repeatedly criticized Ryan’s leadership and was stung after the Speaker said he would not longer defend Trump after a 2005 tape emerged in which the GOP nominee speaks lewdly about groping and kissing women.

Win or lose on Nov. 8, Trump could put pressure on House Republicans to oppose Ryan in a speakership contest.

The presence of Trump campaign chairman Steve Bannon is another factor.

As an executive with Breitbart news, Bannon has made it his mission to depose Ryan. He is unlikely to stop causing trouble for the Speaker after the election.

A big question mark is what the House Freedom Caucus decides to do. The conservative group, which is credited for pushing BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerLongtime House parliamentarian to step down Five things we learned from this year's primaries Bad blood between Pelosi, Meadows complicates coronavirus talks MORE out last year, endorsed Webster for Speaker last year. But after Ryan beat Webster in the closed-door, internal vote, most of the group’s leaders supported Ryan in the public floor vote.

Freedom leaders now are pressing Ryan to delay the House GOP leadership elections until after the lame-duck session. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and other conservatives say they want to see how Ryan handles a fiscal 2017 spending bill and other items after the election before voting to give him another two years. But there is no indication that Ryan plans to grant their request.

Other Freedom members, like Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), are still furious with Ryan for ditching Trump.

“I have not made up my mind how I’ll vote yet,” DesJarlais said. “It depends on who runs.”

So far, no viable candidate has stepped up to challenge Ryan in the Speaker’s race. Webster, the former Speaker of the Florida state House, indicated he probably wouldn’t run again for the top job on Capitol Hill.

“I don’t think the conference is interested in a principle-based, member-driven Congress,” Webster told The Hill on Wednesday.

Webster is one of a number of other lawmakers whose votes will be closely watched in the Speakership election.

The central Florida lawmaker said he’s focused “100 percent” on his congressional race and hasn’t yet thought of whether he’ll vote to give Ryan another two-year term.

Republican Jim Banks, who's the favorite to win an open House seat in Indiana, plans to join the Freedom Caucus but said backing Ryan is a no-brainer. The two recently campaigned together in the Hoosier State. 
 
"Yes, I plan to support Paul Ryan," Banks said. "He is the substantive leader our party and country needs right now."