Some doubt McCarthy or Scalise will ever lead House GOP

Some doubt McCarthy or Scalise will ever lead House GOP
© Greg Nash

Here’s a twist: Some congressional Republicans say it’s possible neither Majority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyHillicon Valley: Google bans Zoom from its work computers | Dem cautions White House against using surveillance to fight virus | Lawmakers push House leaders on remote voting Rep. Massie threatens to block next relief bill, calls for remote voting Lawmakers outline proposals for virtual voting MORE (R-Calif.) nor Majority Whip Steve ScaliseStephen (Steve) Joseph ScaliseOvernight Energy: Trump reportedly opposes royalty cuts for oil, gas companies | House GOP presses Saudis to ease oil production | Exxon Mobil cuts budget amid industry slump House Republicans threaten pushback on Saudi Arabia amid oil market slump House GOP leaders back effort to boost small-business loans MORE (R-La.) will be serving in House leadership after the November midterm elections.

McCarthy and Scalise  are seen as the front-runners to succeed Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanWho should be the Democratic vice presidential candidate? The Pelosi administration It's not populism that's killing America's democracy MORE (R-Wis.), but there is a contingent of conservatives who are agitating to throw out the entire current leadership team — particularly if a blue wave washes over the House and Democrats take back the lower chamber in November. 

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“I don’t think they can make the case [to remain] if they are in the majority or the minority,” Rep. Justin AmashJustin AmashHouse Armed Services chairman calls for removal of Navy chief Overnight Defense: Trump 'may look into' dismissal of Navy captain | Acting Navy chief stands by speech calling ousted captain 'stupid' | Dems call for chief's firing | Hospital ship to take coronavirus patients Democratic lawmakers call for Navy chief's firing MORE (R-Mich.), a vocal member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, told The Hill. “I think you have to change the leadership team dramatically to get things back on track for our country. If that means changing all the members of leadership, then so be it.

“They haven’t succeeded in defending the American people — and that means defending all Americans from all backgrounds, from all political viewpoints.”

Added longtime Rep. Walter JonesWalter Beaman JonesExperts warn Georgia's new electronic voting machines vulnerable to potential intrusions, malfunctions Georgia restores 22,000 voter registrations after purge Stacey Abrams group files emergency motion to stop Georgia voting roll purge MORE (R-N.C.): “We need a new look, and a new look doesn’t mean you go back to the past; you look to go to the future.”

Rep. Paul GosarPaul Anthony GosarThe Hill's 12:30 Report: House to vote on .2T stimulus after mad dash to Washington Conservative lawmakers tell Trump to 'back off' attacks on GOP colleague Lawmakers highlight flights back to DC for huge coronavirus vote MORE (R-Ariz.), another Freedom Caucus member, said he wouldn’t back anyone for a leadership job who helped draft or push through the $1.3 trillion omnibus government funding bill last month that included higher spending figures for defense and domestic programs.

“Right now, I’m not interested in anybody in the current leadership team because the system is so broken. We need someone to come out, maybe someone who is not a member of Congress, because good policy builds good politics. What we just did is horrendous policy,” Gosar said of the omnibus package.

“I don’t even want to stick with that team now. I want a new team.”

Leadership allies point out these critics are the same hard-line conservatives who pressured then-Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerMeadows joins White House in crisis mode Meadows set to resign from Congress as he moves to White House The Pelosi administration MORE (R-Ohio) to resign in the fall of 2015 and who have been a thorn in Ryan’s side for the past 2 1/2 years.

And for every conservative lawmaker wanting a clean slate, there are many more Republicans arguing that the current team will mostly stay intact, no matter what happens in the elections.

“I think our team is a good team,” Rep. Leonard LanceLeonard LanceGun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs Bottom Line MORE (R-N.J.) told The Hill. “I have confidence in the leadership team that we have.”

But the conservative Freedom Caucus, and its allies like Jones and Rep. Thomas MassieThomas Harold MassieOn The Money: Mnuchin, Schumer in talks to strike short-term relief deal | Small businesses struggling for loans | Treasury IG sends Dems report on handling of Trump tax returns Rep. Massie threatens to block next relief bill, calls for remote voting Lawmakers outline proposals for virtual voting MORE (R-Ky.), could play an enormous role in selecting the next GOP Speaker. If the bloc of roughly 30 conservatives band together, they can prevent McCarthy, Scalise or anyone else from securing the required 218 votes needed to win the gavel on the House floor.

No one has 218 votes as of now, one reason why Ryan has not called new leadership elections in the middle of the term. And even if President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenators demand more details from Trump on intel watchdog firing Overnight Health Care: Trump steps up attack on WHO | Fauci says deaths could be lower than first projected | House panel warns federal stockpile of medical supplies depleted | Mnuchin, Schumer in talks over relief deal Trump says he'll look into small business loan program restricting casinos MORE weighs in on behalf of McCarthy, his close ally on Capitol Hill, there are no guarantees the majority leader would be able to reach the magic number.

Trump’s “voice will certainly have a strong influence on who’s going to lead the party going forward,” Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark MeadowsMark Randall MeadowsThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Americans with COVID-19 immunity may lead US back to work Trump shakes up White House communications team Kayleigh McEnany to take over as White House press secretary MORE (R-N.C.) told reporters. But he added: “No one has the votes to get to 218. … There is no one in this body who can be the Speaker other than Speaker Ryan.”

McCarthy, Ryan’s top lieutenant whom he endorsed over the weekend, would have a much easier path to be elected minority leader if Democrats flip control of the House this fall. According to House GOP rules, a minority leader only needs to win a simple majority of the entire Republican conference, a figure much lower than 218 or half of the entire 435-member House.

But some conservative voices in the GOP conference are warning that an anti-Trump, Democratic wave election won’t just wash Republicans out of the majority — it would also sweep Ryan’s entire leadership team out of power.

That could mean McCarthy, Scalise, and Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenryPatrick Timothy McHenryBottom line Top GOP post on Oversight draws stiff competition Lawmakers shame ex-Wells Fargo directors for failing to reboot bank MORE (R-N.C.) could be overthrown as rank-and-file Republicans seek to press the reset button.

“If there is a blue wave and we lose it,” said one leading House conservative, “I can’t imagine that there would be a constituency who would suggest we keep a losing leadership team in power.”

Losing is so much on the mind of one House Republican than he’s been joking with GOP colleagues that he’s running for “minority leader” this fall.

Even after Democrats lost the House majority in the 2010 Tea Party wave election, then-Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrip that led to acting Navy secretary's resignation cost 3K: reports Overnight Health Care: Trump steps up attack on WHO | Fauci says deaths could be lower than first projected | House panel warns federal stockpile of medical supplies depleted | Mnuchin, Schumer in talks over relief deal House Republicans, key administration officials push for additional funding for coronavirus small business loans MORE (D-Calif.) was able to hang on to control and stay on as minority leader.

On the GOP side of the aisle, there isn’t a clear precedent. In the wake of House Republicans’ defeat in 2006, then-Speaker Dennis HastertJohn (Dennis) Dennis HastertFeehery: If money is no object, let's solve some pressing problems Feehery: Give me liberty or give me coronavirus! Feehery: Mulvaney fit for Northern Ireland post MORE (R-Ill.) resigned from office and BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerMeadows joins White House in crisis mode Meadows set to resign from Congress as he moves to White House The Pelosi administration MORE, then Hastert’s top deputy as majority leader, was elected minority leader. Hastert’s majority whip, then-Rep. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntGOP senators begin informal talks on new coronavirus stimulus Five things being discussed for a new coronavirus relief bill Hillicon Valley: Apple rolls out coronavirus screening app, website | Pompeo urged to crack down on coronavirus misinformation from China | Senators push FTC on price gouging | Instacart workers threaten strike MORE (R-Mo.), stuck around for one term as minority whip before leaving for the Senate.

“It should be” a complete house cleaning if Republicans lose the chamber this fall, said another House GOP lawmaker. “That’s the mistake the Democrats made in keeping Nancy Pelosi around after losing the House. She’s kept us in the majority. That was their mistake.”

It’s unclear who exactly could step up and lead the GOP conference in a massive shake-up. Would House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris RodgersCathy McMorris RodgersOvernight Energy: Trump rolls back Obama-era fuel efficiency standards | Controversial Keystone XL construction to proceed | Pressure mounts to close national parks amid pandemic Critics blast Trump mileage rollback, citing environment and health concerns The myth about Puerto Rican statehood that won't go away MORE (Wash.), the only woman in leadership, be spared? As the No. 4 leader, she mostly manages the 237-member conference, its meetings and its retreats, though she also attends political strategy sessions.

Other names floated by GOP lawmakers include Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg WaldenGregory (Greg) Paul WaldenOvernight Energy: Trump rolls back Obama-era fuel efficiency standards | Controversial Keystone XL construction to proceed | Pressure mounts to close national parks amid pandemic Infrastructure bill gains new steam as coronavirus worsens Critics blast Trump mileage rollback, citing environment and health concerns MORE (R-Ore.), the House GOP’s campaign chief during the winning 2014 and 2016 cycles; Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin BradyKevin Patrick BradyOn The Money: Mnuchin, Schumer in talks to strike short-term relief deal | Small businesses struggling for loans | Treasury IG sends Dems report on handling of Trump tax returns EXCLUSIVE: Treasury IG sends report to House Dems on handling of Trump tax returns Officials sound alarm over virus relief check scams MORE (R-Texas), who just came off a big victory with the passage of tax reform; Natural Resources Committee Chairman Rob BishopRobert (Rob) William BishopWhere do we go from here? Conservation can show the way Overnight Energy: Panel gives chairman power to subpoena Interior | House passes bill to protect wilderness | House Republicans propose carbon capture bill | Ocasio-Cortez introduces bill to ban fracking House Natural Resources gives Grijalva power to subpoena Interior MORE (R-Utah), the former Speaker of the Utah state House; and Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark WalkerBradley (Mark) Mark WalkerThe Hill's 12:30 Report: House to vote on .2T stimulus after mad dash to Washington Top GOP post on Oversight draws stiff competition Freshman Dem finds voice in fight against online extremism MORE (R-N.C.).

Former Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanTop conservatives pen letter to Trump with concerns on fourth coronavirus relief bill Justice IG pours fuel on looming fight over FISA court The relief bill and public broadcasting: A missed opportunity MORE (R-Ohio) has also said he’s interested in running for Speaker or another leadership post, though he’s seen as a long shot.

Asked by The Hill this week if he would consider the Speakership if no one else can reach 218 votes, Brady replied that his “best contribution for our party is right here as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. That’s where I intend to stay.”

Rep. Tim WalbergTimothy (Tim) Lee WalbergThe health care crisis no one is talking about Overnight Defense: Pentagon policy chief resigns at Trump's request | Trump wishes official 'well in his future endeavors' | Armed Services chair warns against Africa drawdown after trip GOP chairman after Africa trip: US military drawdown would have 'real and lasting negative consequences' MORE (R-Mich.), a leadership ally, is siding with Ryan in supporting McCarthy for Speaker. But he said either McCarthy or Scalise would make “excellent Speakers” because “they’ve shown loyalty to the conference.”

Still, Walberg added that he “can’t guarantee” that McCarthy or Scalise will still be in leadership next year “with the Freedom Caucus and others making their play.”