GOP leaders scramble to contain immigration rebellion

Republican leaders are facing long odds as they scramble to thwart an internal rebellion over immigration just months before November’s midterm elections.

The leaders are attempting to broker a deal that satisfies competing factions of their restive conference and defuses a push by mutinous centrists threatening to force action to protect undocumented immigrants in a series of head-to-head floor votes that would highlight deep GOP divisions over an issue that has long been radioactive within the party.

The dispute has centered largely on what legal protections should be extended to those living in the country illegally, and to whom they should apply — thorny enough questions on their own. But the leaders’ effort was further complicated on Thursday, when President TrumpDonald John TrumpGillibrand backs federal classification of third gender: report Former Carter pollster, Bannon ally Patrick Caddell dies at 68 Heather Nauert withdraws her name from consideration for UN Ambassador job MORE warned that he'd veto any bill to shore up the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program if it fails to fund his favored wall at the U.S.-Mexico border.

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“Unless it improves a wall — and I mean a wall, a real wall — and unless it improves very strong border security, there’ll be no approvals from me, because I have to either approve it or not,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News Channel.

The president’s demand is just the latest headache for Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanUnscripted Trump keeps audience guessing in Rose Garden Coulter defends Paul Ryan: This is 100 percent Trump's fault The Hill's 12:30 Report — Presented by Kidney Care Partners — Trump escalates border fight with emergency declaration MORE (R-Wis.) and his leadership team, who are in delicate negotiations to appease both the reform-minded centrists — whose discharge petition is inching closer to the 218 signatures it needs to force a vote — and conservative immigration hard-liners vowing to oppose any proposal that would, in their eyes, provide “amnesty” to immigrants in the country illegally.

Ryan, in reluctantly taking the Speaker’s gavel in 2015, had promised members of the far-right Freedom Caucus that he wouldn’t consider any immigration bill that lacks the backing of a majority of Republicans — a vow those conservatives haven’t forgotten almost 30 months later. And the Speaker’s lame-duck status — he’s retiring at the end of the year — has only weakened his hand as he tries to exert control over his troops and avoid an all-out immigration fight heading into elections where the issue is sure to play a prominent role.

“What we're trying to do is find where the consensus sweet spot is,” Ryan told reporters in the Capitol last week. “Immigration is an issue that has a lot of passionate positions.”

Hovering over the debate through the Memorial Day recess is the centrists’ claim that their discharge petition — a rarely used procedural step to force votes to the floor against the wishes of majority party leaders — already has enough Republican support to hit the 218 mark if Ryan fails to orchestrate a deal quickly when Congress returns to Washington early next month.

“They are at the point where they are confident I've got more than 218 votes,” said Rep. Jeff DenhamJeffrey (Jeff) John DenhamCrazy California an outlier? No, we are the canary in the coal mine Polling editor says news outlets should be more cautious calling elections Rep. Valadao officially concedes in California race MORE (R-Calif.), one of the leading forces behind the discharge petition. “They want to get [a deal] done.”

The window for reaching such an agreement, though, is closing quickly. Republicans will huddle in the Capitol on June 7 for a two-hour meeting designed to reach a consensus. If none emerges, then more Republicans are expected to endorse the discharge petition, forcing votes on several immigration bills as early as June 25.

“I believe the drop-dead date is June 7,” said Rep. Dennis RossDennis Alan RossEx-GOP lawmaker joins family firm  Ex-GOP lawmaker joins Florida lobbying firm Incoming GOP lawmaker says he may have violated campaign finance law MORE (R-Fla.), a senior deputy whip, who has not endorsed the petition but remains open to doing so. “We’re giving them 10 days to see what happens.”

Ryan, last year, had promised the Freedom Caucus a vote on their preferred immigration bill, a conservative proposal championed by Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob GoodlatteRobert (Bob) William GoodlatteIt’s time for Congress to pass an anti-cruelty statute DOJ opinion will help protect kids from dangers of online gambling House GOP probe into FBI, DOJ comes to an end MORE (R-Va.), and they’re frustrated with the Speaker’s inaction since then. In its current form, the proposal lacks the backing to pass the House, but conservatives want an opportunity to show their support nonetheless.

“There are some of us who, even with the Goodlatte bill, believe that a slight amendment here or there may get us to 218,” Rep. Mark MeadowsMark Randall MeadowsThe Hill's Morning Report — Presented by the American Academy of HIV Medicine — Trump, Congress prepare for new border wall fight Winners and losers in the border security deal GOP braces for Trump's emergency declaration MORE (R-N.C.), chairman of the Freedom Caucus.

“We’re tired of talking about it. We think it’s time to vote,” he said.

If the discharge petition were to succeed, it would prompt a “Queen of the Hill” process featuring votes on four separate proposals: the conservative Goodlatte bill; the liberal Dream Act; a bipartisan proposal, sponsored by Reps. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdImmigration groups press for pairing Dreamer benefits with border security Advocacy groups want border-for-Dreamers deal ahead of Feb. 15 deadline Bill Maher draws backlash for making Popeyes comment to black congressman MORE (R-Texas) and Pete AguilarPeter (Pete) Ray AguilarLeft flexes muscle in immigration talks Immigration groups press for pairing Dreamer benefits with border security Lawmakers haggling over border dollars much lower than Trump's demand MORE (D-Calif.), combining DACA protections with new efforts to strengthen border security — but without explicit funding for Trump’s wall; and a yet-unknown bill of Ryan’s choosing. The proposal that wins the most votes, beyond 218, would go to the Senate.

The agreement GOP leaders are seeking instead would feature votes on only two immigration proposals: Goodlatte’s legislation, perhaps with amendments, and a bill providing permanent legal status — and an eventual path to citizenship — for the so-called Dreamers. Such a deal would preclude an embarrassing “Queen of the Hill” scenario, which Republican leaders in Congress and the White House contend lends too much power to the minority Democrats.

“That would be like turning over the House to Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiNational emergency declaration — a legal fight Trump is likely to win Congress allows Violence Against Women Act to lapse High stakes as Trump, Dems open drug price talks MORE,” Marc Short, Trump’s legislative director, said Friday, referring to the Democratic leader.

Leadership allies say they’re confident Ryan can bridge the divide and keep the more liberal bills off the floor.

“They want to continue having Republicans lead on that issue [and] the president wants to lead on that issue,” said GOP Rep. Tim WalbergTimothy (Tim) Lee WalbergCongress must take the next steps on federal criminal justice reforms Midterm results shake up national map Dems seek to rebuild blue wall in Rust Belt contests MORE, who has dozens of farms in his southern Michigan district. “So I’m hoping that ultimately our caucus will come together and put an immigration bill across the line.”

Rep. Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloTrump suggests Heller lost reelection bid because he was 'hostile' during 2016 presidential campaign Trey Gowdy joins Fox News as a contributor GOP rep will ‘probably’ support measure to back Paris climate pact MORE (R-Fla.), the sponsor of the discharge petition, said “a major discussion area” remains the question of citizenship. The centrist DACA supporters are fighting to ensure those immigrants “have a bridge into the legal immigration system,” he said, while conservatives are adamant that they don’t receive a “special” path, akin to jumping in line. But the nuances surrounding that distinction have yet to be worked out.

“You have to define ‘special,’ ” Curbelo said, declining an attempt to do so.

Another wild card in the debate is the question of how many Democrats will endorse the discharge petition. While 190 Democrats have already signed on, three lawmakers representing districts on the Texas-Mexico border — Reps. Filemon VelaFilemon Bartolome VelaHow Pelosi is punishing some critics while rewarding others New Dem caucus chairman: Some wall is good, but not new wall Border lawmakers press Trump to beef up existing security MORE, Henry Cuellar and Vicente González — have refused to do so, citing fears that the process would facilitate new border wall construction at the expense of their communities.

Trump’s veto threat over wall funding will only heighten those concerns, while raising new doubts that there’s an agreement to be had that can win the support of most House Republicans, Senate Democrats and the president.

Indeed, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellDems ready aggressive response to Trump emergency order, as GOP splinters Green New Deal Resolution invites big picture governing ‘Contingency’ spending in 3B budget deal comes under fire MORE (R-Ky.) has warned that he won’t consider any immigration bills that Trump won’t sign.

“We have to make law,” McConnell told The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, “not just spin our wheels.”

Scott Wong contributed.