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Midterms put GOP centrists in peril

Midterms put GOP centrists in peril
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A potential blue wave and string of Republican retirements could wipe out a huge chunk of GOP moderates this fall, leaving an even more conservative House caucus behind them.

Some of the most competitive races this election cycle feature centrist Republicans like Mike CoffmanMichael (Mike) Howard CoffmanColorado governor says he was not exposed to COVID-19 after Aurora mayor tests positive Colorado mayor says he called protesters 'domestic terrorists' out of 'frustration' Colorado governor directs officials to reexamine death of Elijah McClain in police custody MORE of Colorado, Leonard LanceLeonard LanceThomas Kean wins GOP primary to take on Rep. Tom Malinowski Gun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs MORE of New Jersey and Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickTaylor Swift celebrates House passage of Equality Act Here are the three GOP lawmakers who voted for the Equality Act House passes sweeping protections for LGBTQ people MORE of Pennsylvania.

And the GOP’s most prominent and outspoken moderate voices — including Reps. Ryan CostelloRyan Anthony CostellloPennsylvania's Democratic lt. governor files to run for Senate Bottom Line Trump struggles to stay on script, frustrating GOP again MORE (Pa.) and Ileana Ros-LehtinenIleana Carmen Ros-LehtinenBottom line Democrats elect Meeks as first Black Foreign Affairs chairman House Hispanic Republicans welcome four new members MORE (Fla.) and former Rep. Charlie DentCharles (Charlie) Wieder Dent22 retired GOP members of Congress call for Trump's impeachment Seven Senate races to watch in 2022 The magnificent moderation of Susan Collins MORE (Pa.) — have decided to head for the exits instead of face tough reelection battles back home.

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Centrist GOP lawmakers are in a difficult political climate in the era of Trump, where they are constantly walking a political tightrope as they try to respond to a never-ending stream of White House controversies without upsetting their Republican base.

“Look, it’s a nasty political environment and moderate Republicans in competitive seats get the worst of it,” Costello told The Hill. “The atmospherics are against Republicans. But there are many battle-tested Republicans that possess the acumen to pull through.”

That tough dynamic was on full display Friday, when Lance joined a handful of moderate Republican senators in calling for an FBI investigation into sexual assault allegations made against Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.

Trump agreed to authorize the FBI to conduct a supplemental background investigation into Kavanaugh. The decision comes a day after Kavanaugh and one of his accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, testified publicly before the Judiciary panel in a rollercoaster hearing about the sexual assault allegations.

“Dr. Ford’s testimony yesterday was credible and believable. But I also found Judge Kavanaugh to be credible in his own defense,” Lance said in a statement. “It’s in the best interest of the nation that a full and thorough examination by federal law enforcement of these serious charges against Judge Kavanaugh occurs.”

Lance represents just one of the dozens of vulnerable House seats that Republicans are defending this election cycle, where Democrats who are furious with Trump and energized by the “Me Too” movement hope to win back the House and Senate majorities. Independent and moderate Republican women in the suburbs are expected to form a crucial voting bloc that could determine the outcome of the November elections.

Other Republican centrists facing tough reelection races include Reps. Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloFormer GOP lawmaker: Republican Party 'engulfed in lies and fear' House GOP lawmaker unexpectedly shakes up Senate trial The Memo: Historic vote leaves Trump more isolated than ever MORE (Fla.), Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdHere are the three GOP lawmakers who voted for the Equality Act Sunday shows - COVID-19 dominates as grim milestone approaches Former Texas GOP rep: Trump should hold very little or no role in Republican Party MORE (Texas) and Jeff DenhamJeffrey (Jeff) John DenhamBottom line Business groups breathe sigh of relief over prospect of divided government Ex-RNC, Trump fundraiser Elliott Broidy charged in covert lobbying scheme MORE (Calif.). The trio led an unsuccessful, insurgent rebellion this summer to circumvent GOP leadership and force floor action on immigration legislation using a so-called discharge petition.

Rep. John KatkoJohn Michael KatkoBiden officials urge patience on immigration amid border surge Lawmakers line up behind potential cyber breach notification legislation Lawmakers blame SolarWinds hack on 'collective failure' to prioritize cybersecurity MORE (R-N.Y.), co-chairman of the moderate Tuesday Group who was also involved in the immigration talks, is facing a competitive reelection race, while Rep. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurChamber-backed Democrats embrace endorsements in final stretch Republican David Richter wins NJ primary in race to challenge Rep. Andy Kim What to watch in New Jersey's primaries on Tuesday MORE (R-N.J.), a former leader of the group, is locked in a tight race rated as a “toss-up” by election prognosticators.

And Reps. Fred UptonFrederick (Fred) Stephen UptonUpton censured for vote to remove Marjorie Taylor Greene from Education Committee Is the 'civil war' in the Republican Party really over? Michigan GOP committee deadlocks on resolution to censure Meijer over impeachment vote MORE (R-Mich.) and Rodney DavisRodney Lee DavisLawmakers propose draft bill to create Capitol riot commission Pelosi says 9/11-style commission to investigate Capitol breach is 'next step' Conservative House Republican welcomes Clark as chief of US Chamber MORE (R-Ill.), two centrists from the Midwest, could also be in trouble if a blue wave materializes this fall.

It’s not unusual for either party to see their moderates in danger, especially since swing districts are usually represented by lawmakers closer to the middle.

And to be sure, there are some ultra conservative members who are also deeply at risk of losing their seats, including House Freedom Caucus members Rod Blum (R-Iowa) and Dave Brat (R-Va.)

But the majority of the GOP’s vulnerable seats — and a large share of the conference’s retiring members — are more closely aligned to the center.

“I think most would agree with me when I say that for every seat we lose in the House, the center of gravity in the conference moves right,” Costello said.

Centrist lawmakers, however, are used to running in competitive races every election cycle, which is giving some hope to the GOP.

Some of those moderate Republicans are hoping to sell their center-right principles and calls for sensible bipartisanship on the campaign trail, where they say their constituents have grown fed up with the extreme polarization in Congress.

A number of vulnerable lawmakers signed a pledge this week promising to withhold their votes for the next Speaker unless the candidate agrees to dramatically reform the House rules.

The ambitious effort to “break the gridlock” is designed to make the House more inclusive and bipartisan, in part by making it easier for members to offer and pass their own legislation, especially if it has support from both parties.

“Of all the issues that concern residents in the district that I serve, the most important issue is not health care or taxation or immigration,” Lance said at a press conference earlier this week. “The most important issue is bipartisan cooperation. ... And that is what we are attempting to do.”

— Scott Wong contributed