Dems hold narrow 50-47 percent House lead in new Washington Post poll

Dems hold narrow 50-47 percent House lead in new Washington Post poll
© Greg Nash

Democrats hold a 3-point advantage over Republicans in some of the nation’s tightest House races, according to a Washington Post/Schar School poll released Tuesday.

The poll shows that in 69 competitive districts, 50 percent of likely voters support the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 47 percent who back the Republican. Sixty-three percent of the districts surveyed are currently represented by a GOP lawmaker.

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Democrats and Republicans are running about even in the 48 districts surveyed that voted for President TrumpDonald TrumpFormer New York state Senate candidate charged in riot Trump called acting attorney general almost daily to push election voter fraud claim: report GOP senator clashes with radio caller who wants identity of cop who shot Babbitt MORE in 2016. Democrats hold a narrowing advantage in the 21 districts that voted for Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden says Russia spreading misinformation ahead of 2022 elections Highest-ranking GOP assemblyman in WI against another audit of 2020 vote Women's March endorses Nina Turner in first-ever electoral endorsement MORE that year.

The Democratic advantage, particularly in districts that voted for Trump two years ago, underscores the threat facing Republicans as they attempt to hold onto their majority in the House. But Democrats still need to gain 23 seats on Nov. 6 to take control of the chamber.

Both parties are viewed positively by less than half of the electorate. About 48 percent of likely voters said they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while 52 percent have a negative view. About 47 percent of respondents have a positive view of the Republican Party favorably, compared to 53 percent who have a negative opinion.

The 10 percent of likely voters who dislike both parties said they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, by a 15-point margin. When the GOP gained seats in the 2014 midterm elections, voters who disliked both parties preferred the Republican candidate in their district by 17 points, according to the Post.

The Senate confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughAn obscure Supreme Court ruling is a cautionary tale of federal power Murkowski leans into record ahead of potentially bruising reelection bid Want to evaluate Donald Trump's judgment? Listen to Donald Trump MORE and the ensuing conversation around sexual assault ignited voting blocs across the political spectrum.

About 60 percent of respondents in each party said the clash over Kavanaugh’s nomination made them more motivated to vote. Kavanaugh was publicly accused by three women of engaging in varying degrees of sexual misconduct while in high school and college. He denied the allegations.

While 57 percent of likely voters in battleground districts said they are concerned that men might be unfairly accused of sexual assault, 78 percent said they are concerned that women are not believed when they go public with allegations.

The Washington Post/Schar School poll surveyed 1,269 likely voters from Oct. 15-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.