The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority

Republicans are eyeing a path to the House majority that takes them through Trump country.

The GOP has already put 55 districts held by Democrats on its target list for 2020. But Republican hopes are highest in the 31 districts that President TrumpDonald TrumpPoll: 73 percent of Democratic voters would consider voting for Biden in the 2024 primary Biden flexes presidential muscle on campaign trail with Virginia's McAuliffe Has Trump beaten the system? MORE carried in 2016. That includes 13 districts where the real estate mogul bested Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBiden flexes presidential muscle on campaign trail with Virginia's McAuliffe Shontel Brown gaining ground against Nina Turner in Ohio: poll Biden hits trail for McAuliffe in test of his political brand MORE by more than 6 points.

ADVERTISEMENT

Meanwhile, only three GOP lawmakers hold districts where Clinton won in 2016 — Reps. Will HurdWilliam Ballard HurdFirst Democrat jumps into key Texas House race to challenge Gonzales Will the real Lee Hamiltons and Olympia Snowes please stand up? The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Biden, Congress drawn into pipeline cyberattack, violence in Israel MORE (Texas), John KatkoJohn Michael KatkoSenators introduce bipartisan bill to secure critical groups against hackers House erupts in anger over Jan. 6 and Trump's role McCarthy yanks all GOP picks from Jan. 6 committee MORE (N.Y.) and Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickDemocrats seek to calm nervous left Biden's corporate tax hike is bad for growth — try a carbon tax instead Centrists gain foothold in infrastructure talks; cyber attacks at center of Biden-Putin meeting MORE (Pa.).

Those lawmakers are among 33 Republicans that Democrats are hoping to oust in 2020 as the party looks to expand its nascent House majority.

Republicans need to pick up roughly 20 seats to win back control of the lower chamber.

Here’s a look at where next year’s battles for the House will be fought:

Trump-won districts held by Democrats

AZ-01

Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) held onto his seat in November after notching a decisive 7.6-point victory over Republican challenger Wendy Rogers. Trump edged out Clinton in Arizona’s 1st District in 2016 by just over 1 point.

GA-06

Rep. Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathCritical race theory becomes focus of midterms Overnight Health Care: Fauci clashes with Paul - again | New York reaches .1B settlement with opioid distributors | Delta variant accounts for 83 percent of US COVID-19 cases Abortion rights group endorsing 12 House Democrats ahead of midterms MORE’s (D-Ga.) 2018 victory in Georgia’s 6th District brought former Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine HandelOssoff defeats Perdue in Georgia Senate runoff McBath wins rematch against Handel in Georgia House race House Democrats' campaign arm reserves .6M in ads in competitive districts MORE’s (R-Ga.) brief tenure in the House to an end and handed Democrats a House seat they had aggressively sought in a 2017 special election. Trump won there in 2016 by 1.5 points.

IL-14

Rep. Lauren UnderwoodLauren UnderwoodBiden's midterm strategies start to come into focus Biden aims to build support for jobs and families plan in Illinois Hollywood goes all in for the For the People Act MORE (D-Ill.) dethroned four-term former Rep. Randy HultgrenRandall (Randy) Mark HultgrenRecord number of Black women elected to Congress in 2020 Republican challenging freshman Dem rep says he raised 0,000 in 6 days Illinois Dems offer bill to raise SALT deduction cap MORE (R-Ill.) in November to become the youngest black woman ever elected to Congress. Trump notched a nearly 4-point win in her district in 2016, however, and the GOP is looking to turn it red again in 2020.

IL-17

Rep. Cheri BustosCheryl (Cheri) Lea BustosRockford mayor decides against 2022 run for Bustos's House seat Advocacy groups urge Pelosi, Schumer to keep Pentagon funding out of infrastructure bills Nearly 70 House lawmakers ask leadership to reimburse National Guard for Jan. 6 response MORE (D-Ill.) easily coasted to a fourth term in 2018, beating back a challenge from Republican Bill Fawell. She’s currently the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), meaning that she’ll be tasked with preserving the Democrats’ House majority in 2020, along with her own seat. Trump notched a slim 0.7-point victory in her district in 2016.

IA-01

Rep. Abby FinkenauerAbby Lea FinkenauerThe Hill's Morning Report - Pelosi considers adding GOP voices to Jan. 6 panel Ex-Rep. Abby Finkenauer running for Senate in Iowa GOP hammers Democrats over Iowa Democrat's election challenge MORE (D-Iowa) ousted two-term former Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa) in this northeast Iowa district in November — one of two Iowa districts that Democrats managed to flip in 2018, along with the state’s 3rd District. Still, Trump won there by about 3.5 points two years earlier.

IA-02

Rep. Dave LoebsackDavid (Dave) Wayne LoebsackPelosi to seat Iowa Republican as Democratic challenger contests election results Iowa Democrat who lost by six votes will appeal to House Iowa officials certify Republican Miller-Meeks's 6-vote victory MORE (D-Iowa) secured a seventh term in the House last year, beating back a challenge from Republican Christopher Peters. Trump won his southeastern Iowa district two years earlier by a roughly 4-point margin.

IA-03

Rep. Cindy AxneCindy AxneOvernight Health Care: Fauci clashes with Paul - again | New York reaches .1B settlement with opioid distributors | Delta variant accounts for 83 percent of US COVID-19 cases Abortion rights group endorsing 12 House Democrats ahead of midterms House GOP campaign arm hits vulnerable Democrats on inflation in July 4 ad campaign MORE’s (D-Iowa) win over former Rep. David YoungDavid Edmund YoungFirst-term Democrat presses for coronavirus relief agreement this year Axne wins reelection in Iowa Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll MORE (R-Iowa) gave Democrats more good news in the Hawkeye State; it was among key wins there that handed the party three spots in Iowa’s four-member House delegation. Trump won the district in 2016 by 3.5 points.

ME-02

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) may not have won the most votes on Election Day. But thanks to Maine’s recent switch to ranked-choice voting, he finished with enough votes to defeat former Rep. Bruce PoliquinBruce Lee PoliquinTrump battle with Fox News revived by Arizona projection Rep. Jared Golden wins reelection in Maine Senate control in flux as counting goes forward in key states MORE (R-Maine) days after polls closed. Trump previously won Maine’s 2nd District by more than 10 points.

MI-08

Rep. Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinHouse erupts in anger over Jan. 6 and Trump's role House passes host of bills to strengthen cybersecurity in wake of attacks Democrat unveils bill to allow only House members to serve as Speaker MORE (D-Mich.) ousted former Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) in Michigan’s 8th District, two years after Trump scored a nearly 7-point win over Clinton. Slotkin’s victory was seen by many as a sign of a Democratic resurgence in the Upper Midwest, an area that played a crucial role in sending Trump to the White House.

MI-11

Rep. Haley StevensHaley Maria StevensOvernight Health Care: Fauci clashes with Paul - again | New York reaches .1B settlement with opioid distributors | Delta variant accounts for 83 percent of US COVID-19 cases Abortion rights group endorsing 12 House Democrats ahead of midterms House GOP campaign arm hits vulnerable Democrats on inflation in July 4 ad campaign MORE (D-Mich.) defeated Republican Lena Epstein in November in the race to succeed now-retired Rep. David Trott (R-Mich.). In doing so, she became the first Democrat elected to a full two-year term in Michigan’s 11th District since 1964. Trump previously won her district by more than 3 points.

MN-02

In defeating freshman former Rep. Jason LewisJason LewisRep. Angie Craig defends Minnesota House seat in race clouded by legal confusion Smith wins reelection in Minnesota Klobuchar 'feeling good' about Democrats taking control of Senate MORE (R-Minn.) last year, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) handed Democrats a crucial victory in a coveted swing seat. Trump notched a victory in the suburban Twin Cities district two years earlier, besting Clinton by little more than 1 point.

MN-07

Rep. Collin PetersonCollin Clark Peterson Progressives fight for leverage amid ever-slimming majority Six ways to visualize a divided America On The Trail: The political losers of 2020 MORE (D-Minn.) won a 15th term representing this vast western Minnesota district in 2018, despite Trump’s nearly 31-point victory there two years earlier. That alone makes him a prime target for Republicans in 2020.

NV-03

Rep. Susie LeeSuzanne (Susie) Kelley LeeMORE’s (D-Nev.) win over Republican Danny Tarkanian kept Nevada’s 3rd District in Democratic hands after Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenBipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor The Hill's Morning Report - Biden renews families plan pitch; Senate prepares to bring infrastructure package to floor Senate eyes taking up bipartisan infrastructure deal as soon as July 19 MORE (D-Nev.) vacated the seat to run for Senate. Trump carried the district by 1 point over Clinton in 2016.

NH-01

Rep. Chris PappasChristopher (Chris) Charles PappasFormer Trump aide announces run for New Hampshire House seat Democrats facing tough reelections back bipartisan infrastructure deal Former Trump aide eyeing New Hampshire congressional bid MORE’s (D-N.H.) 8.6-point win over Republican Eddie Edwards in 2018 kept New Hampshire’s 1st District in Democratic hands after former Rep. Carol Shea-PorterCarol Shea-PorterThe 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority New Hampshire New Members 2019 Democrat Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire House seat MORE (D-N.H.) announced that she would not seek reelection. That win was a relief for Democrats after Trump narrowly won the district in 2016.

NJ-02

Rep. Jefferson Van Drew (D-N.J.) won New Jersey’s 2nd District in November after going up against Trump-backed Republican Seth Grossman in his bid to succeed former Rep. Frank LoBiondoFrank Alo LoBiondoVan Drew-Kennedy race in NJ goes down to the wire Van Drew wins GOP primary in New Jersey Amy Kennedy wins NJ primary to face GOP's Van Drew MORE (R-N.J.), who retired in January. Trump beat out Clinton in the district by nearly 5 points.

NJ-03

Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) unseated two-term former Rep. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurChamber-backed Democrats embrace endorsements in final stretch Republican David Richter wins NJ primary in race to challenge Rep. Andy Kim What to watch in New Jersey's primaries on Tuesday MORE (R-N.J.) in November, a win that left only one Republican in New Jersey’s congressional delegation, Rep. Chris SmithChristopher (Chris) Henry SmithBipartisan congressional commission urges IOC to postpone, relocate Beijing Games The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Facebook - Senate path uncertain after House approves Jan. 6 panel The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by Facebook — Biden delivers 100 million shots in 58 days, doses to neighbors MORE. But Trump still carried the district by more than 6 points in 2016, making Kim’s seat a prime target for the GOP in 2020.

NJ-05

Rep. Josh GottheimerJoshua (Josh) GottheimerLawmakers spend more on personal security in wake of insurrection Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Democrats face daunting hurdles despite promising start MORE (D-N.J.) easily fended off a challenge from Republican John McCann in November, despite Trump’s narrow 1.1-point victory in the district. While Gottheimer’s win bolstered Democratic hopes in the district, Republicans still see the two-term congressman as a target in 2020.

NJ-11

Rep. Mikie SherrillRebecca (Mikie) Michelle SherrillDemocrat unveils bill to allow only House members to serve as Speaker Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Moderate Democrats call for 9/11-style panel to probe COVID-19 origins MORE (D-N.J.) beat out Republican Jay Webber by nearly 15 points in 2018 in the race to succeed now-retired Rep. Rodney FrelinghuysenRodney Procter FrelinghuysenBottom line Republican lobbying firms riding high despite uncertainty of 2020 race Ex-Rep. Frelinghuysen joins law and lobby firm MORE (R-N.J.). Sherrill was the first Democrat elected to represent the district in the House since 1982, and Republicans are eager to take it back in 2020. Trump carried the district by just under 1 point in 2016.

NM-02

Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.) won the right to succeed former Rep. Steve PearceStevan (Steve) Edward PearceNew Mexico Democrat releases final Spanish-language ad in toss-up race Five Latinas who could be Biden's running mate New Mexico Dems brace for crowded race to succeed Udall MORE (R-N.M.) in this vast southern New Mexico district after narrowly overcoming a challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell in November. Trump carried the district in 2016 by roughly 10 points.

NY-11

In defeating former Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) last year, Rep. Max RoseMax RoseOvernight Defense: Austin takes helm at Pentagon | COVID-19 briefing part of Day 1 agenda | Outrage over images of National Guard troops in parking garage Austin sworn in as nation's first Black Pentagon chief We lost in November — we're proud we didn't take corporate PAC money MORE (D-N.Y.) dethroned the only Republican member of New York City’s congressional delegation. Trump won the Staten Island district two years earlier by a nearly 10-point margin.

NY-18

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) sailed to an easy victory over Republican James O’Donnell last year after an unsuccessful primary bid for New York attorney general. Trump notched a narrow win in Maloney’s district in 2016, edging out Clinton by less than 2 points.

NY-19

Rep. Antonio DelgadoAntonio Ramon DelgadoSix takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections Cuomo job approval drops 6 points amid nursing home controversy: poll Cuomo takes heat from all sides on nursing home scandal MORE (D-N.Y.) ousted former Rep. John FasoJohn James FasoDemocrats go big on diversity with new House recruits Kyle Van De Water wins New York GOP primary to challenge Rep. Antonio Delgado The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (R) in 2018 after a bitter campaign in which some Republican groups attacked Delgado over his past career as a rapper. Trump carried the district in 2016 by nearly 7 points.

NY-22

Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) wrestled this district from one-term former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) in November after voters there chose Trump over Clinton by a more than 15-point margin. But Brindisi’s victory was a tight one — less than 2 points — and he’s almost certain to face an aggressive GOP challenge next year.

OK-05

In what was one of election night 2018’s biggest upsets, Rep. Kendra HornKendra Suzanne HornWhy does Rep. Johnson oppose NASA's commercial human landing system? The US's investment in AI is lagging, we have a chance to double it What should Biden do with NASA and the Artemis Program? MORE (D-Okla.) defeated former Rep. Steve RussellSteven (Steve) Dane RussellKendra Horn concedes to Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma, flipping seat back to GOP GOP women's group launches six-figure campaign for House candidate Bice Bice wins Oklahoma GOP runoff to face Horn in November MORE (R-Okla.), turning Oklahoma’s 5th District blue for the first time in more than 40 years. But with Trump’s roughly 13-point victory there in 2016, Horn’s reelection is far from sealed.

PA-08

Rep. Matt CartwrightMatthew (Matt) Alton CartwrightHouse Democrats unveil .9 billion bill to boost security after insurrection Garland emphasizes national security, civil rights in budget hearing House Democrats call for paid legal representation in immigration court MORE (D-Pa.) won a fourth term in the House in November after beating back a challenge from Republican John Chrin in Pennsylvania’s newly formed 8th District. Previously, Cartwright had represented the state’s 17th District. Trump won the area by nearly 10 points.

PA-17

Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) won his first House seat in the March 2018 special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th District. But redistricting led him to face off against former Rep. Keith RothfusKeith James RothfusConor Lamb defeats Trump-backed challenger for reelection in Pennsylvania CNN's Tapper tried to talk GOP candidate out of running against Democratic incumbent: report Lobbying world MORE (R-Pa.) in the state’s 17th District in November. He won that race by nearly 13 points, despite Trump’s 2.6-point victory there in 2016.

SC-01

Rep. Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamTop cyber Pentagon official overseeing defense contractor project placed on leave Joe Cunningham to enter race for South Carolina governor Republicans race for distance from 'America First Caucus' MORE (D-S.C.) vanquished former South Carolina state Rep. Katie Arrington (R) in this low country district last year, becoming the first Democrat to represent it in Washington since the 1980s. Trump carried the district by about 13 points in 2016.

UT-04

Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) was declared the winner in this district last year after a prolonged vote-counting process gave him an ultra-thin 694-lead over two-term former Rep. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveBlack Republican advocates his case for CBC membership Black women look to build upon gains in coming elections Voters elected a record number of Black women to Congress this year — none were Republican MORE (R-Utah). That margin — 0.258 percent — was just over the 0.25 percent that would have allowed for a recount. Trump beat out Clinton in the district in 2016 by nearly 7 points.

VA-02

Rep. Elaine LuriaElaine Goodman LuriaMisled condemnation of the Lebanese Armed Forces will help Hezbollah Clyburn: Trump could be called to testify before Jan. 6 panel The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Goldman Sachs - Trump Org CFO's expected indictment MORE’s (D-Va.) win over former Rep. Scott TaylorScott William TaylorElaine Luria endorses McAuliffe for governor in Virginia Democratic primary Luria holds onto Virginia House seat Chamber-backed Democrats embrace endorsements in final stretch MORE (R-Va.) in Virginia’s 2nd District was among three Democratic victories that flipped GOP-held seats in the Old Dominion. Trump previously scored a 3.4-point victory in the district.

VA-07

Rep. Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerDemocrat unveils bill to allow only House members to serve as Speaker Moderate Democrats call for 9/11-style panel to probe COVID-19 origins Former staffer of Bob McDonnell launches challenge against Spanberger in Virginia MORE (D-Va.) vanquished former Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.) in this Richmond-area district, winning the right to succeed a conservative firebrand who rose to power at the height of the Tea Party movement four years earlier. Trump won Virginia’s 7th District by 6.5 points in 2016.

WI-03

Despite Trump’s 2016 victory in this western Wisconsin district, Rep. Ron KindRonald (Ron) James KindBiden's midterm strategies start to come into focus Cotton heads to Iowa to launch 'Veterans to Victory' program Exclusive: Conservative group targets vulnerable Democrats over abortion MORE (D-Wis.) secured a 12th term in the House last year, scoring a nearly 20-point victory over Republican Steve Toft. His win was another welcome sign for Democrats for signs of strength in the upper Midwest.

Clinton-won districts held by Republicans

NY-24

Despite Clinton’s 3.6-point win in his district in 2016, Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.) notched a roughly 5-point victory over his Democratic challenger, Dana Balter in 2018. Democrats aren’t giving up, however. Katko is on the DCCC’s target list for 2020.

PA-01

After an expensive and closely watched race against wealthy philanthropist Scott Wallace in 2018, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick secured a second term in the House. Fitzpatrick’s win in a district that Clinton carried by 2 points stood in contrast to a long series of losses by other Republicans in suburban districts across the country. Still, that has left Democrats eager to challenge him again next year.

TX-23

Rep. Will Hurd’s (R-Texas) vast district on the U.S.-Mexico border has long been on Democrats’ wish list. He successfully fought off an aggressive challenge from Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones last year — Hurd won by just 0.5 points — and Democrats are hoping for a different outcome in 2020. Clinton carried the district by 3.4 points over Trump in 2016.