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GOP hopes dim on reclaiming House

The 2020 election is more than a year away, but some Republican lawmakers are pessimistic about their chances of winning back the House.

President TrumpDonald TrumpSenators given no timeline on removal of National Guard, Capitol fence Democratic fury with GOP explodes in House Georgia secretary of state withholds support for 'reactionary' GOP voting bills MORE’s approval ratings in key swing states are under water. Infighting on the GOP leadership team and a notable retirement have raised questions about the party’s campaign strategy.

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And Republicans acknowledge that many of the at-risk Democratic freshmen in Trump districts are going to be difficult to beat as they resist calls for impeachment and stay focused on kitchen-table issues such as health care and infrastructure.

“It’s going to be tough. [The Democrats] have really good majority-makers — [Reps.] Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerWhat I learned in 19 weeks of working with progressive Democrats The Memo: Ohio Dem says many in party 'can't understand' working-class concerns Hillicon Valley: Intelligence agency gathers US smartphone location data without warrants, memo says | Democrats seek answers on impact of Russian hack on DOJ, courts | Airbnb offers Biden administration help with vaccine distribution MORE, Dean PhillipsDean PhillipsCurator estimates Capitol art damage from mob totals K Architect of the Capitol considering display on Jan. 6 riot Rep. Phillips says he did not truly understand white privilege until the Capitol riot MORE, Max RoseMax RoseOvernight Defense: Austin takes helm at Pentagon | COVID-19 briefing part of Day 1 agenda | Outrage over images of National Guard troops in parking garage Austin sworn in as nation's first Black Pentagon chief We lost in November — we're proud we didn't take corporate PAC money MORE. They’ve got some good members that know what they’re doing. They seem to not be embracing the crazy,” said one senior GOP lawmaker who requested anonymity.

“There is a path for us to take it back, but they have good candidates. They have money they are still raising left and right,” the source added. “You just don’t know if the intensity of our voters will be enough, because [Democrats] are still engaged.”

In the first three months of this year, the House Democrats’ campaign arm hauled in more than $32 million, while the GOP’s campaign operation raised $25 million.

Another GOP lawmaker said it will be hard for Republicans to make the case to voters they deserve the majority when they failed to repeal ObamaCare or fund Trump’s border wall in the last Congress when they controlled all the levers of the government.

“It would be very difficult to take back the majority when most people see it as a squandered opportunity when Republicans had the majority,” the second GOP lawmaker told The Hill.

Democrats rode an anti-Trump wave in last fall’s midterm elections, picking up a net 40 seats and winning the House majority for the first time in eight years.

Democrats now enjoy a 235-198 advantage, meaning Republicans need to win a net of 20 seats to win back control of the House in 2020.

GOP leaders maintain they can pull it off, pointing to the low unemployment rate, strong economy and defeat of ISIS under Trump. They also believe that liberal bomb throwers like Reps. Rashida TlaibRashida Harbi TlaibSix ways to visualize a divided America Jamaal Bowman's mother dies of COVID-19: 'I share her legacy with all of you' Democrats urge Biden FDA to drop in-person rule for abortion pill MORE (D-Mich.), Ilhan OmarIlhan OmarSix ways to visualize a divided America Jamaal Bowman's mother dies of COVID-19: 'I share her legacy with all of you' To address global fragility, we must start locally MORE (D-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezMore than 700 migrant children in Border Patrol custody: report Democratic fury with GOP explodes in House Budowsky: Cruz goes to Cancun, AOC goes to Texas MORE (D-N.Y.) are driving the Democratic Party too far to the left, alienating middle-of-the-road voters.

In a private gathering at the Capitol Hill Club, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Rep. Tom EmmerThomas (Tom) Earl EmmerHouse panel spars over GameStop frenzy, trading apps The Hill's Morning Report - Biden on COVID-19: Next year Americans will be 'better off' NRCC finance chair: Republicans who voted for Trump impeachment will not be penalized MORE (Minn.) told rank-and-file Republicans on Wednesday they have a “real opportunity” to pick up seats and take back the lower chamber.

Emmer specifically singled out the Orange County seat of freshman Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as a prime pickup opportunity after she endorsed this week the idea of launching an impeachment inquiry into the president, sources in the closed-door meeting said.

“I think there’s a great chance we’re going to take the House back. I think Trump’s well-positioned to win reelection, too,” said Rep. Steve ChabotSteven (Steve) Joseph ChabotREAD: The Republicans who voted to challenge election results House Republicans who didn't sign onto the Texas lawsuit Top GOP lawmaker touts 'more flexible' PPP loans in bipartisan proposal MORE (R-Ohio), who beat back a tough challenge from Democrat Aftab Pureval last fall.

“The bottom line is the country is better off under his leadership,” Chabot said.

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But the GOP leadership team has experienced turmoil in recent weeks that has rattled the Republican conference. Emmer, the NRCC chairman and a close ally of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthyDemocratic fury with GOP explodes in House Trump to attack Biden in CPAC speech McConnell knocks Pelosi Jan. 6 commission proposal: 'Partisan by design' MORE (R-Calif.), privately clashed with GOP Conference Chairwoman Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyThe Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - J&J A-OK, Tanden in Trouble GOP leaders clash over Trump presence at CPAC Six ways to visualize a divided America MORE (Wyo.) and two other GOP leaders last week over whether they were pulling their weight in raising money for the party.

That fight spilled out into the public, an embarrassing episode for McCarthy’s leadership team.

Then came another blow: Rep. Susan BrooksSusan Wiant BrooksBottom line House Republicans who didn't sign onto the Texas lawsuit Voters elected a record number of Black women to Congress this year — none were Republican MORE (R-Ind.), whom Emmer had hand-picked to lead candidate recruitment in the 2020 cycle, abruptly announced she was retiring from Congress. Brooks, one of only 13 GOP women in the House, had specifically been brought on to help recruit more women to run for Congress.

In Wednesday’s campaign meeting, Brooks stood up in front of colleagues and told them her retirement would allow her to spend more time traveling the country to recruit candidates and raise campaign cash.

“The flip side,” one Republican said after the meeting, “is that she’s the recruitment chair and she’s leaving. That is a negative.”

A third House GOP lawmaker who asked for anonymity suggested the NRCC and broader party had done little to shore up support among suburban women, who fled from Trump and the GOP in droves during the disastrous 2018 election.  

“What lessons have we learned from 2018, when we got shellacked in the suburbs? What have we done to make up ground there? Are we appealing to those suburban women?” the third GOP lawmaker asked. “I think we haven’t done much here perception-wise with Trump to bring in some of those voters.”

Many in the GOP fear that, just like last fall, Trump will be an albatross around the necks of congressional candidates. Recent polls show Trump trailing former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenKlain on Manchin's objection to Neera Tanden: He 'doesn't answer to us at the White House' Senators given no timeline on removal of National Guard, Capitol fence Overnight Defense: New Senate Armed Services chairman talks Pentagon policy nominee, Afghanistan, more | Biden reads report on Khashoggi killing | Austin stresses vaccine safety in new video MORE and other Democratic hopefuls in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Three polls even showed Trump trailing Biden in Texas. 

“In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania … those are bellwethers,” said the third GOP lawmaker. “Trump’s numbers in those states today are in trouble.”

Still, other Republicans cautioned that it’s far too early to panic. While many agree Biden would be a strong match-up against Trump, Democrats could eventually nominate a liberal like Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersKlain says Harris would not overrule parliamentarian on minimum wage increase Romney-Cotton, a Cancun cabbie and the minimum wage debate On The Money: Senate panels postpone Tanden meetings in negative sign | Biden signs supply chain order after 'positive' meeting with lawmakers MORE (I-Vt.) or Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenBecerra says he wants to 'build on' ObamaCare when pressed on Medicare for All Yellen deputy Adeyemo on track for quick confirmation Menendez reintroduces corporate diversity bill MORE (D-Mass.), which Republicans argue could help them flip the House.

“Elections aren’t referendums; they’re choices,” said Rep. Tom ReedTom ReedCuomo faces rising scrutiny over COVID-19 nursing home deaths Bipartisan lawmakers call for immediate vote on COVID-19 vaccine distribution package NY Republicans want Justice Department to subpoena Cuomo over nursing homes MORE (R-N.Y.), co-chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. “So, if you have the choice of President Trump delivering for you on the economy versus these [Democrats] who want to undo everything, it’s a totally different dynamic.”