Gun debate to shape 2020 races

Lawmakers return to Washington next week with both sides vowing a robust debate on gun reform following a pair of deadly mass shootings in Texas and another in Ohio.

But the discussion promised by Sen. Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellDC statehood push faces long odds despite record support Overnight Energy: California, 23 other states sue Trump over vehicle emissions rule | Climate strike protests hit cities across globe | Interior watchdog expands scope of FOIA investigation | Dems accuse officials of burying climate reports Hillicon Valley: Lawmakers say Zuckerberg to 'cooperate' on antitrust probes | Dems see victory after McConnell backs election security funds | Twitter takes down fake pro-Saudi accounts MORE (R-Ky.) is a far cry from assured action, and the GOP leader’s long history opposing tougher firearm laws has left many Democrats skeptical that any meaningful reforms will move through the Republican-controlled Senate.

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In either case, experts say, the outcome could have far-reaching effects on the 2020 elections, as liberal gun control advocates warn of a voter backlash if Congress sits idle and conservative gun rights proponents caution against any new restrictions on the Second Amendment.

The debate will put a squeeze on McConnell as he seeks to defend his Senate majority.

Inaction could energize progressives in crucial swing states while also playing into the Democrats’ strategy of attacking McConnell’s “Grim Reaper” persona — painting him as a figure intent on blocking any legislative progress.

Moving gun reform legislation, however, would infuriate the powerful gun lobby and could alienate conservatives in battleground districts across the country. 

Whatever the outcome, the debate is likely to play an outsize role in races for the House, where Democrats are hoping to make gun violence prevention a major campaign issue. The political consequences could be especially profound in the suburbs, where Republican campaign operatives are starting to sound early warnings against doing nothing. 

“A lot of suburban voters, especially college-educated women, don’t understand why we can’t do something in the face of the obvious national problem of gun violence,” said Whit Ayres, a Washington-based GOP pollster who counts Sens. Marco RubioMarco Antonio RubioThe Memo: 'Whistleblower' furor gains steam Liberal super PAC launches browser extension replacing 'Mitch McConnell' with 'Moscow Mitch' Trump faces difficult balancing act with reelection campaign MORE (R-Fla.), Lamar AlexanderAndrew (Lamar) Lamar AlexanderDemocrats hit Scalia over LGBTQ rights Here are the lawmakers who aren't seeking reelection in 2020 EXCLUSIVE: Swing-state voters oppose 'surprise' medical bill legislation, Trump pollster warns MORE (R-Tenn.) and James InhofeJames (Jim) Mountain InhofeNegotiators kick off defense bill talks amid border wall, Iran debates House rejects GOP motion on replacing Pentagon funding used on border wall Republicans wary of US action on Iran MORE (R-Okla.) among his clients.

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“It doesn’t look good to have an obvious national problem when our national legislature is essentially silent,” Ayers said. 

For decades, gun reform was considered the third rail of national politics; even Democrats largely shied away from it when they last held power in Congress almost 10 years ago. But a long and seemingly endless string of mass shootings in recent years has outraged the public, energized gun reformers and put more pressure on lawmakers to act.

In the 2018 midterms, a number of moderate House Democrats — including Virginia’s Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerTen notable Democrats who do not favor impeachment Centrist House Democrats press for committees to follow pay-go rule Gun debate to shape 2020 races MORE, Georgia’s Lucy McBathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathMcBath passes on running for Senate Gun epidemic is personal for lawmakers touched by violence House panel advances anti-gun violence legislation MORE and South Carolina’s Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamHere are the Democrats who aren't co-sponsoring an assault weapons ban The Hill Interview: Sanford says Trump GOP doing 'serious brand destruction' Overnight Energy: House moves to block Trump drilling | House GOP rolls out proposal to counter offshore drilling ban | calls mount for NOAA probe MORE — won races in tough districts while endorsing tougher gun laws. It’s a dynamic that advocates are highlighting heading into 2020.

“This isn't an issue that calls for speculation,” said Rep. Ted DeutchTheodore (Ted) Eliot DeutchGun epidemic is personal for lawmakers touched by violence House panel advances anti-gun violence legislation Gun debate to shape 2020 races MORE (D-Fla.), who represents Parkland, where 17 students were killed last year in a high school shooting. 

If McConnell “chooses to run out the clock, he does so at his own peril, his own political peril. He's going to cost himself seats,” Deutch added. “And the longer he waits, the more likely it is that gun safety will be a driving issue in the 2020 Senate races.”

That’s certainly the case in Arizona, where appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyArizona Democrats push Sinema censure vote off until January Pence taps former DHS spokeswoman as his new press secretary Arizona Democratic Party will hold vote to censure Sinema MORE is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Mark Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), who nearly lost her life in a 2011 mass shooting in Tucson. A poll published Thursday by OH Predictive Insights revealed that 54 percent of likely Arizona voters believe laws concerning the sale and ownership of guns need to be stricter — a 6 percentage point increase from May. 

Nationwide, support for gun reform polls even higher, especially on individual provisions such as universal background checks, which consistently tops 90 percent. Yet those surveys have not translated into action on Capitol Hill, where most Republicans remain dead set against tougher gun laws, even in the weeks following mass shootings in Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso, Texas, that left 31 people dead.

“With universal background you're attacking law-abiding citizens,” Rep. Tom ReedThomas (Tom) W. ReedOvernight Health Care — Presented by Partnership for America's Health Care Future — Walmart to stop selling e-cigarettes | Senators press FDA to pull most e-cigarettes immediately | House panel tees up e-cig hearing for next week Reed thanks well wishers, will return to work Monday after collapse GOP Rep. Tom Reed collapses just before television appearance MORE (R-N.Y.), a co-chairman of the moderate Problem Solvers Caucus, told CNN on Aug. 20. 

Reed said he’s getting an earful from constituents in his rural district in western New York who are voicing their opposition to tougher laws. 

“People come up, stop me on the street,” he said. 

This weekend's shooting in Odessa, Texas, is likely to reinvigorate gun control activists but is unlikely to fundamentally shift the discussion.

Seven people were killed and another 22 were injured in the mass shooting. No motive is known so far.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, said he’s seen little evidence that the recent mass shootings have shifted the gun debate. 

“There are big majorities for certain reforms, but a much louder minority of gun rights supporters who have a loud voice in the GOP. I’m not convinced that this is a major voting issue for a lot of voters beyond some gun rights supporters,” Kondik said in an email sent before the Odessa shooting. “Yes, the Democrats did do well in suburban areas last year, but Trump himself probably was more a part of that than guns overall.” 

In the absence of sustained pressure on Republicans from their core supporters, many Democrats are doubtful that McConnell will move any meaningful reforms through the Senate this year.

“I don't have any confidence that the Senate will do anything remotely related to guns,” Rep. Bennie ThompsonBennie Gordon ThompsonHillicon Valley: Zuckerberg to meet with lawmakers | Big tech defends efforts against online extremism | Trump attends secretive Silicon Valley fundraiser | Omar urges Twitter to take action against Trump tweet Homeland Security chairman calls on new Trump aide to reestablish cyber coordinator House Democrat urges Trump to address online extremism at UN MORE (D-Miss.), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said by phone. “They are a wholly owned subsidiary of the NRA.”

For Republicans, voting against the National Rifle Association (NRA) could carry heavy political consequences in 2020 or beyond. While the NRA has seen a decline in membership, allegations of misspending and a power struggle among its top ranks, it still has the ear of the president.

House Democrats, who passed a background checks bill in February, are looking to put the issue front and center at a Judiciary Committee markup next week when the panel will vote on three bills: one to ban large-capacity magazines, another that would bar people convicted of misdemeanor hate crimes from owning a weapon; and a third supporting states that pass "red flag" laws, which allow family members to petition courts to remove guns from people deemed a threat.

Rep. Jamie RaskinJamin (Jamie) Ben RaskinDemocrats bicker over strategy on impeachment Overnight Defense: Trump says he has 'many options' on Iran | Hostage negotiator chosen for national security adviser | Senate Dems block funding bill | Documents show Pentagon spent at least 4K at Trump's Scotland resort Top Oversight Democrat demands immigration brass testify MORE (D-Md.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee and Democratic leadership team, said Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTimeline: The Trump whistleblower complaint DC statehood push faces long odds despite record support Ukraine could badly damage both Donald Trump and the Democrats MORE (D-Calif.) could then package the bills and move them quickly to the floor or hold a series of votes on individual bills.

Either way, the goal would be the same: to put added pressure on McConnell, the Senate and Trump.

So far, it’s unclear if the president is feeling the heat. After the back-to-back shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Trump said there was a need for “strong background checks” on gun purchases but then reversed himself by saying the focus should be on mental health and violent video games. Yet Trump continues to encourage senators to negotiate a deal on gun reforms. 

The president’s waffling has created enormous uncertainty around the issue as lawmakers prepare to return to Washington after a six-week recess, one that’s largely been dominated by Trump.

“All presidents have internal debates; not all presidents articulate these internal debates publicly,” said former Rep. Leonard LanceLeonard LanceGun debate to shape 2020 races GOP fears Trump backlash in suburbs Bottom Line MORE (R-N.J.), a background checks advocate who lost his suburban seat to a Democrat in last year’s blue-wave election.

"I would like the president to exert influence in the Senate to bring [a background check] bill to the floor," he added.

Chris Mills Rodrigo contributed.