House GOP touts poll showing impeachment advantage for Republicans

House GOP leaders are telling their rank-and-file members that impeachment will backfire on Democrats and give the GOP a chance to flip dozens of Democratic-held seats next year.

Members were briefed Monday during a call led by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthyHouse to resume mask mandate after new CDC guidance McCarthy pulls GOP picks off House economic panel GOP up in arms over Cheney, Kinzinger MORE (R-Calif.) on a new poll taken by the House GOP’s campaign arm that showed 68 percent of voters see impeachment as being politically motivated.

“The numbers look good for us,” one source on the call said. “[They] show independents and voters in districts Trump won with a Dem rep are against impeachment.”

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According to the poll taken by Public Opinion Strategies for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), 67 percent of independents see impeachment as politically motivated.

A memo obtained by The Hill that included information on the poll, which surveyed voters in 95 battleground districts, said that an anti-impeachment GOP candidate “who wants voters to decide the fate of the president in the next election” gets 50 percent support, compared to 42 percent for a pro-impeachment Democrat.

It also found that the anti-impeachment GOP candidate led the pro-impeachment Democrat in districts held by Republicans and Democrats. In Republican-held districts, the advantage was 53 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll, while the advantage was 47 percent to 43 percent in Democratic districts.

In districts won by President TrumpDonald TrumpRealClearPolitics reporter says Freedom Caucus shows how much GOP changed under Trump Jake Ellzey defeats Trump-backed candidate in Texas House runoff DOJ declines to back Mo Brooks's defense against Swalwell's Capitol riot lawsuit MORE but now held by Democrats, the advantage for Republicans, according to the memo, was 54 percent to 38 percent.

“Congressional Democrats who represent Trump districts appear to be in a precarious position here, as their voters clearly side against impeachment and are much more willing to vote for a GOP candidate opposing impeachment than a Democrat supporting it,” a slide from a PowerPoint presentation provided to members and obtained by The Hill reads. 

The poll also found that 62 percent of those surveyed don’t believe the phone call in which President Trump pressured Ukraine’s president to investigate former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenRealClearPolitics reporter says Freedom Caucus shows how much GOP changed under Trump Iowa governor suggests immigrants partially to blame for rising COVID-19 cases Biden officials pledge to confront cybersecurity challenges head-on MORE is an impeachable offense.

Thirty-one Democrats hold districts won by Trump. Republicans will need to flip at least 19 districts to take back the majority in 2020.

The survey comes as the House Republican campaign arm amps up its attacks on moderate Democrats who were previously hesitant to support the inquiry. Democratic leadership had feared an impeachment push could hurt such Democrats, and leaders had not moved forward before the news on Ukraine.

While the NRCC’s data shows impeachment could prove to be problematic for Democrats in certain districts, a number of recent polls have shown an uptick in support for impeachment. 

The poll — conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 3 by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the NRCC and Team McCarthy — surveyed 800 registered voters in targeted congressional districts across the country.

It included two parts: forty House seats held by Republicans that need to be defended and 55 House seats held by Democrats that Republicans believe they can win.

The poll had a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points.