GOP claims vindication, but Van Drew decision doesn't spark defections

GOP claims vindication, but Van Drew decision doesn't spark defections
© Greg Nash

Democratic Rep. Jefferson Van Drew's expected decision to join the GOP over the divisive impeachment issue has roiled New Jersey and Washington and left both parties claiming vindication ahead of Wednesday’s historic House vote to make President TrumpDonald John TrumpUPS, FedEx shut down calls to handle mail-in ballots, warn of 'significant' problems: report Controversial GOP Georgia candidate attempts to distance from QAnon Trump orders TikTok parent company to sell US assets within 90 days MORE just the third commander in chief to be impeached.

Republicans quickly pounced, arguing that Van Drew's defection is evidence that Democrats, pressured by “radical” liberal activists, have overreached in taking the drastic step of impeaching Trump over his dealings with Ukraine. They’re warning of a bloodbath at the polls next year for other vulnerable Democrats who decide to back impeachment this week.  

Yet Democrats, far from dodging the embarrassing episode, are instead leaning in, noting that the heavy pressure on Van Drew was coming not from conservatives in his swing district but from liberals up in arms that the freshman lawmaker was ready to buck the party and oppose the impeachment articles.  

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“What he's reacting to is public polling that shows he can't get renominated,” Rep. Jerrold NadlerJerrold (Jerry) Lewis NadlerBy questioning Barr, Democrats unmasked their policy of betrayal Chris Wallace: Barr hearing 'an embarrassment' for Democrats: 'Just wanted to excoriate him' Apple posts blowout third quarter MORE (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said in an interview Sunday with ABC's “This Week” program. 

Internal polling, shared with The Hill and many other news outlets, showed that because of his anti-impeachment stance, Van Drew was in serious jeopardy of losing his Democratic primary. The poll revealed that just 28 percent of Democratic voters wanted Van Drew renominated to his House seat; 58 percent wanted another Democrat to be nominated.  

In deciding to vote against impeachment and switch parties, Van Drew, who huddled with Trump on Friday, appeared to be betting his best shot to continue his congressional career was running in a GOP primary and then a general election in South Jersey as an anti-impeachment Republican, not a pro-impeachment Democrat. 

It’s unclear whether the Van Drew episode will factor into the impeachment decision facing the other 30 vulnerable Democrats representing districts Trump won in 2016, most of whom are now being targeted by Republicans with anti-impeachment-based attack ads. More than 40 Democrats still have not announced how they’ll vote for the impeachment articles on Wednesday.

But if Republicans thought it would prompt a wave of defections, just the opposite has happened thus far. On Sunday, freshman Rep. Antonio DelgadoAntonio Ramon DelgadoDemocrats go big on diversity with new House recruits OVERNIGHT ENERGY: 20 states sue over Trump rule limiting states from blocking pipeline projects | House Democrats add 'forever chemicals' provisions to defense bill after spiking big amendment | Lawmakers seek extension for tribes to spend stimulus money House Democrats add some 'forever chemicals' provisions to defense bill after spiking major amendment MORE (D-N.Y.) said he was jumping on the impeachment train, followed on Monday by fellow freshman Reps. Ben McAdams (D-Utah), Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamWatchdog calls for probe into Gohmert 'disregarding public health guidance' on COVID-19 Massie plans to donate plasma after testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies Multiple lawmakers self-quarantine after exposure to Gohmert MORE (D-S.C.), Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinPaul Junge wins Michigan GOP primary to challenge Elissa Slotkin Overnight Defense: US formally rejects Beijing's South China Sea claims | House set to consider defense policy bill next week | 57 injured as firefighters battle warship blaze House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted' MORE (D-Mich.) and Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerDemocrats go big on diversity with new House recruits Republicans choose Frietas to challenge Spangberger for Virginia congressional seat Over 570 women registered to run for office, topping 2018 record MORE (D-Va.) as well as Rep. Matt CartwrightMatthew (Matt) Alton CartwrightRepublicans face worsening outlook in battle for House Cook shifts 20 House districts toward Democrats Five takeaways from PPP loan data MORE (D-Pa.), a four-term member of leadership.

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“The evidence for me is clear: The president abused the power of his office by demanding a foreign government perform a personal favor. He obstructed Congress and its constitutional duty of oversight by withholding pertinent documents and central witnesses,” McAdams told Utah reporters without taking any questions. “His actions weakened our country and the checks and balances enshrined in our founding documents.”

So far, only one other Democrat, Rep. Collin PetersonCollin Clark PetersonDemocrats for Life urge DNC to change party platform on abortion Peterson wins Minnesota House primary in crucial swing district House approves statehood for DC in 232-180 vote MORE (D-Minn.), appears likely to join Van Drew in opposing impeachment. As a 15-term legislator and chairman of the influential Agriculture Committee, Peterson has good name ID in his district, but Trump won it by 30 points in 2016. 

Peterson and Van Drew were the only Democrats to vote against a resolution creating the rules underlying the impeachment inquiry. 

In an interview with a local radio station, Peterson said that he too had been approached about joining the GOP but had rebuffed those offers. 

“I'm staying in the party, in spite of some of the stuff that's going on that I don't agree with. I am not going switch parties at this stage of my career,” Peterson, 75, told KFGO on Monday. “There have been overtures by the highest levels of the Republican Party in the last couple weeks to ask if I would consider it, and I told them no.” 

In the Garden State, top Democrats slammed Van Drew’s party switch, which quickly prompted six of his senior staffers to resign in protest

Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerNew Jersey governor to announce state will move to mostly mail-in voting for November The Memo: Trump attacks on Harris risk backfiring On The Money: Pelosi, Mnuchin talk but make no progress on ending stalemate | Trump grabs 'third rail' of politics with payroll tax pause | Trump uses racist tropes to pitch fair housing repeal to 'suburban housewife' MORE (D-N.J.), whom Van Drew had endorsed for president, called on his supporters to donate money to oust Van Drew from office. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) called it a “cynical and desperate” ploy to hang on to power: “Jeff Van DrewJeff Van DrewGOP lawmaker: Democratic Party 'used to be more moderate' Sunday shows preview: White House, Democratic leaders struggle for deal on coronavirus bill Democrats look to go on offense in debate over reopening schools MORE has chosen his political career over our Constitution.” 

Regardless of what happens to the 16-year state legislator, Republicans have increased their odds of keeping the seat if Van Drew follows through and switches parties. The Cook Political Report on Monday changed the rating of his moderate 2nd Congressional District race from “toss up” to “lean Republican. 

Van Drew will bank on an assist from Trump to win the GOP primary and then will hope Democrats nominate a candidate general election voters deem too liberal for the district. It backed Trump in 2016 after voting for former President Obama in 2008 and 2012. It was previously held by a Republican, former Rep. Frank LoBiondoFrank Alo LoBiondoVan Drew wins GOP primary in New Jersey Amy Kennedy wins NJ primary to face GOP's Van Drew Stimulus price tag of .2T falls way short, some experts say MORE, who served 12 terms before retiring at the end of the last Congress. Democrat Brigid Harrison, a political science professor, officially jumped into the race on Monday, and more challengers are expected. 

Rep. Mark TakanoMark Allan TakanoThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: Fauci says focus should be on pausing reopenings rather than reverting to shutdowns; WHO director pleads for international unity in pandemic response The Hill's Coronavirus Report: Teachers' union President Randi Weingarten calls Trump administration plan to reopen schools 'a train wreck'; US surpasses 3 million COVID-19 cases The Hill's Coronavirus Report: DC's Bowser says protesters and nation were 'assaulted' in front of Lafayette Square last month; Brazil's Bolsonaro, noted virus skeptic, tests positive for COVID-19 MORE (D-Calif.), who had helped Van Drew’s campaign in 2018, said Democrats were “surprised and upset” upon hearing the news of his defection over the weekend. But he predicted Van Drew will be an anomaly, as Democrats are lining up in support of the articles — even those lawmakers who face dire political risks in doing so. 

“I definitely don't see it as a harbinger of things to come,” Takano said Monday. “There are people who are really voting their conscience, and I just think that Jeff has a different value orientation.”