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Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll

Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll
© Greg Nash

Democrats lead in races for three of Iowa’s four congressional districts, according to Monmouth University polling released Thursday.

Iowa was a key state for Republicans to make a dent to the Democratic majority in the House, but with less than two weeks to go before Election Day, three Democrats in seats targeted by the GOP look to be in decent shape.

The poll results could also be good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE, who is hoping to turn Iowa blue after President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden to nominate Linda Thomas-Greenfield for UN ambassador: reports Scranton dedicates 'Joe Biden Way' to honor president-elect Kasich: Republicans 'either in complete lockstep' or 'afraid' of Trump MORE won it in 2016. Polls show a tight race between the two in Iowa.

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In the state’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Abby FinkenauerAbby Lea FinkenauerHere are the 17 GOP women newly elected to the House this year Incoming Iowa GOP lawmaker tests positive for coronavirus Rundown of the House seats Democrats, GOP flipped on Election Day MORE (D), first elected in 2018, leads state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters. Among likely voters in a high turnout scenario, Finkenauer leads 54 percent to 44 percent.

In Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. David Loebsack (D) is retiring, Democratic candidate Rita Hart leads Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 49 percent to 43 percent among registered voters and 51 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. Miller-Meeks led 48 percent to 44 percent in an August poll.

In the state’s 3rd Congressional District, first-term Rep. Cindy AxneCindy AxneOn The Money: Powell says 'concerning' rise in COVID-19 cases could hinder economic recovery | House Democrats withdraw appeal in case over Trump's New York tax returns | Initial jobless claims dip to 751,000 First-term Democrat presses for coronavirus relief agreement this year Chamber-endorsed Dems struggle on election night MORE (D) leads former Rep. David YoungDavid Edmund YoungFirst-term Democrat presses for coronavirus relief agreement this year Axne wins reelection in Iowa Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll MORE (R), whom she unseated in 2018, 52 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, she leads 53 percent to 42 percent.

In the state’s 4th District, state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) leads Democratic candidate J.D. Scholten 48 percent to 42 percent. Among high turnout likely voters, Feenstra leads 48 percent to 43 percent. Feenstra defeated incumbent Rep. Steve KingSteven (Steve) Arnold KingFeenstra wins Iowa House race to fill Steve King's seat Democrats lead in 3 of 4 Iowa House races: poll Hillicon Valley: House votes to condemn QAnon | Americans worried about foreign election interference | DHS confirms request to tap protester phones MORE (R) earlier this year in a GOP primary after the Republican establishment largely turned on King due to his history of inflammatory comments, including questioning in 2019 why the term “white nationalist” had negative associations.

The King district is one that the GOP was favored to win, particularly if King was not the GOP candidate.

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“Democrats appear to be on track to retain the three House seats they currently hold and are making a run in a deep red district,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

Trump won the state by about 10 points in 2016, but the RealClearPolitics average shows Biden with a razor-thin 0.8-point lead.

In the Senate race, Democratic challenger Teresa Greenfield leads Sen. Joni ErnstJoni Kay ErnstThe Memo: Trump plows ahead with efforts to overturn election More conservatives break with Trump over election claims Peggy Noonan: 'Bogus dispute' by Trump 'doing real damage' MORE (R) by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average.