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COVID-19 is wild card as Pelosi faces tricky Speaker vote Sunday

Two years ago, Rep. Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiPelosi: 'No intention' of abandoning Democrats' infrastructure goals Senate investigation of insurrection falls short Ocasio-Cortez: 'Old way of politics' influences Manchin's thinking MORE (D-Calif.) squeaked to the Speakership by a razor-thin edge in the face of an internal Democratic revolt.

This year's vote might be even closer, though for vastly different reasons.

While Pelosi, who has led House Democrats for almost two decades, seems to have secured enough support to keep the gavel when the chamber assembles Sunday, the coronavirus pandemic is playing a wild-card role in the process — one that may pose a greater threat to Pelosi's reign than her small cadre of Democratic detractors.

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Not only have several of Pelosi's supporters recently contracted the virus, making their participation in Sunday's vote uncertain, but the Democrats' slender majority — the result of an election mauling in November — has left her with little room for defections, absences or a wrong mix of the two.

Democrats of all stripes say they're confident that Pelosi will ultimately find a way to win the votes she needs to keep the gavel for another two years. Ask them if it's a slam dunk, however, and they cite just one hazard: COVID-19.

"I think she'll win, but I'm just not sure how she gets there," said Rep. Stephen LynchStephen Francis LynchOvernight Defense: Ex-Pentagon chief defends Capitol attack response as GOP downplays violence | Austin, Biden confer with Israeli counterparts amid conflict with Hamas | Lawmakers press Pentagon officials on visas for Afghan partners GOP downplays Jan. 6 violence: Like a 'normal tourist visit' GOP's Gosar defends Jan. 6 rioter, says she was 'executed' MORE (D-Mass.), summarizing a sentiment common throughout the caucus. "They have to make sure that all the members come. They have to come in person. And some members have illnesses, so it's going to be a little touchy."

Indeed, several Democrats have ongoing health concerns unrelated to the coronavirus that have kept them out of Washington for much of the year, and at least two — Reps. Gwen MooreGwen Sophia MooreDemocrats offer bill to encourage hiring of groups hard-hit by pandemic Shining a light on COINTELPRO's dangerous legacy Lawmakers urge IRS to boost outreach about tax credits for low-income Americans MORE (Wis.) and Rick LarsenRichard (Rick) Ray LarsenDemocrats seek answers from Boeing, FAA after production issues with 737 Max, Dreamliner jets Democrats debate fast-track for infrastructure package LIVE COVERAGE: House votes to name Speaker MORE (Wash.) — contracted the virus in late December.

The illnesses are significant since the biennial Speaker vote falls at the opening call of the new Congress, before the rules governing the next two years are adopted — and before Democrats can establish a system of proxy voting that would empower sick and vulnerable lawmakers to cast ballots remotely. That means members must vote in person on the chamber floor or not at all.

Pelosi will win, said a senior Democratic lawmaker, "just as long as everyone shows up."

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"That's the thing. You just want to make sure nobody gets sick," said the lawmaker, a Pelosi ally who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic. "There's a slim margin."

Just how slim depends on who appears for Sunday's vote.

Democrats are poised to control 222 seats in the next Congress, versus 211 for Republicans, while two seats remain vacant.

To secure the Speaker's gavel, Pelosi has to do more than simply win more votes than anyone else; she has to win a majority of the House, defined as lawmakers in the chamber voting "for a person by name." If all 433 lawmakers vote on Sunday — and vote for an individual — Pelosi would need 217 votes to win the gavel, leaving room to lose five Democrats in the process.

That cushion is much smaller than the one she enjoyed in 2019 — when she won 220 votes despite opposition from 15 moderate Democrats on the House floor — but hardly a deal breaker. Pelosi has since won over some of those detractors, including veteran Reps. Jim CooperJim CooperLiberal advocacy group stirs debate, discomfort with primary challenges Progressive group backing primary challenger to Tennessee Democrat GOP leader to try to force Swalwell off panel MORE (D-Tenn.) and Kurt SchraderWalter (Kurt) Kurt SchraderPharmaceutical industry donated to two-thirds of Congress ahead of 2020 elections: analysis House moderates signal concerns with Pelosi drug pricing bill Blue Dogs push House leadership to allow more member input MORE (D-Ore.), while at least three others lost their reelections: Reps. Joe CunninghamJoseph CunninghamJoe Cunningham to enter race for South Carolina governor Republicans race for distance from 'America First Caucus' Lobbying world MORE (D-S.C.), Max RoseMax RoseOvernight Defense: Austin takes helm at Pentagon | COVID-19 briefing part of Day 1 agenda | Outrage over images of National Guard troops in parking garage Austin sworn in as nation's first Black Pentagon chief We lost in November — we're proud we didn't take corporate PAC money MORE (D-N.Y.) and Ben McAdams (D-Utah).

Still, several of those critics are expected to oppose her again this year, including Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Conor Lamb (D-Pa.) and Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerThe Memo: Democratic tensions will only get worse as left loses patience Five takeaways on the House's return to budget earmarks Lawmakers say companies need to play key role in sustainability MORE (D-Va.).

"I don't know how she squares that circle," said a second Democratic lawmaker and Pelosi ally. "Some of them are really committed."

There are plenty of variables, however, likely to alter Sunday's math — and with it Pelosi's success in keeping the gavel.

Any members voting "present," for instance, are not counted against the final tally — it's as if they were absent — thereby lowering the threshold needed to meet the simple-majority standard. The "present" votes can play to Pelosi's advantage: For every two Democrats voting "present," Pelosi would need one less affirmative vote to win the overall majority and secure the gavel. That creates the space for moderate Democrats in tough battleground districts to log their objections to the liberal Speaker while helping to keep her in place.

At least one Democrat who voted "present" in the Speaker vote in 2019, Rep. Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinDemocrats seize on GOP opposition to Jan. 6 commission Hillicon Valley: Democrats urge Facebook to abandon 'Instagram for kids' plan | 'Homework gap' likely to persist after pandemic Legislation to secure critical systems against cyberattacks moves forward in the House MORE (Mich.), has told Politico she intends to do so again.

But there are limits to that strategy. If too many Democrats vote that way or simply fail to show up on Sunday, then Republicans will effectively assume the voting majority — and Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthyPelosi, leaders seek to squelch Omar controversy with rare joint statement Omar: I wasn't equating terrorist organizations with democratic countries Schumer bemoans number of Republicans who believe Trump will be reinstated: 'A glaring warning' MORE (Calif.), the GOP leader, would become the next Speaker.

The more unsettled variable, though, is the coronavirus and other illnesses expected to keep some lawmakers away from Washington this week. Aside from Moore and Larsen, Rep. Alcee HastingsAlcee (Judge) Lamar HastingsHouse Democrats unveil .9 billion bill to boost security after insurrection Carter sworn in as House member to replace Richmond, padding Democrats' majority Democrats cool on Crist's latest bid for Florida governor MORE (D-Fla.), a Pelosi supporter being treated for pancreatic cancer, is another questionable attendee in the chamber on Sunday. And Rep.-elect Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) is also quarantining after recently contracting COVID-19.

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Compounding the uncertainty, Congress's holiday recess was slashed by weeks as the parties fought over an enormous spending and coronavirus relief package — which finally cleared the House on Dec. 22 — while President TrumpDonald TrumpBiden prepares to confront Putin Biden aims to bolster troubled Turkey ties in first Erdoğan meeting Senate investigation of insurrection falls short MORE's veto of a defense authorization bill forced lawmakers back to Washington once again after Christmas.

The combination of year-end legislative chores has prevented most lawmakers from quarantining in the days leading up to Sunday's Speaker vote, which the Capitol physician had advised last month when coronavirus cases were surging around the country.

"The COVID issue is making us a little nervous," said Rep. Filemon VelaFilemon Bartolome VelaDemocrats confront difficult prospects for midterms The Hill's Morning Report - Biden's next act: Massive infrastructure plan with tax hikes These House lawmakers aren't seeking reelection in 2022 MORE (D-Texas), a Pelosi supporter.

Highlighting the risks facing lawmakers as they navigate their public lives, one of the two House vacancies was created in tragic fashion after Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, a Louisiana Republican, died on Tuesday of complications from COVID-19. He was 41 years old.

Pelosi, for her part, has said both publicly and privately that she has the vote wrapped up.

"I'm fine," she told reporters in the Capitol just before Christmas.

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But on a caucus call last week, Pelosi reportedly acknowledged that the virus was the most significant pitfall she faces. And her allies have been scrambling to convince their fellow Democrats to back the longtime party leader to prevent a dramatic scene on the chamber floor if health-related absences complicate her path to the gavel.

The debate has sparked some hostility within the caucus, where Pelosi's allies — noting that the detractors have offered no alternative Democratic Speaker candidate — are lashing out at her critics with warnings that a vote against her is simply a vote for McCarthy.

"What makes these three or four people so entitled that they get to take a vote that no one else can?" asked a third Democratic lawmaker.

Rep. Bennie ThompsonBennie Gordon ThompsonHillicon Valley: Biden gives TikTok and WeChat a reprieve | Colonial Pipeline CEO addresses Congress again | Thomson Reuters shareholders want review of ICE ties Colonial Pipeline may use recovered ransomware attack funds to boost cybersecurity Democrats debate shape of new Jan. 6 probe MORE (D-Miss.), echoing a message from numerous Democrats, noted that Pelosi has faced tough odds before and has always found a way to tap the powers of her office in the service of persuading even some of her most entrenched critics.

"Leadership and others need to work with them to see if there's some wiggle room there to work it out," Thompson said last week. "I'm sure between now and Sunday, there'll be an awful lot of that."

Other Democrats pointed to Pelosi's performance in confronting Trump, arguing that she's earned her right to the gavel for another two years, particularly since she's vowed they'll be her last at the top of the party.

"She's had a very successful two years, I think, by all standards. She's stood up well against President Trump, so that's made it easy to support her," said Vela.

"Also, the country is in such turmoil," he added. "There's something in your gut that tells you you don't want to be part of the turmoil."