Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls 'predominantly missing the hidden vote'

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean HannitySean Patrick HannityBoehner: Trump 'stepped all over their loyalty' by lying to followers Boehner finally calls it as he sees it Cruz on Boehner: 'I wear with pride his drunken, bloviated scorn' MORE on Tuesday night he sees President TrumpDonald TrumpTrump: McConnell 'helpless' to stop Biden from packing court Romney on NRSC awarding Trump: Not 'my preference' McConnell sidesteps Trump calling him 'dumb son of a b----' MORE being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump: McConnell 'helpless' to stop Biden from packing court Biden, first lady send 'warmest greetings' to Muslims for Ramadan The business case for child care reform MORE leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHow Democrats can defy the odds in 2022 Close the avenues of foreign meddling Pelosi planned on retiring until Trump won election: report MORE. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House. 


“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily," he added. "These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”

A number of news organizations see Biden as the clear favorite in the race given his lead in national polls and most polls of key swing states.

The website FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88 percent chance of winning on Nov. 3. On Oct. 20, 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton an 87 percent chance of winning.

Biden currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics index of polls in battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 4 points, 49.2 percent to 45.2 percent.