Frank Luntz declared that “the polling profession is done” after this year's presidential election, in which a number of polls appeared to show a much brighter picture in various states for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden
Joe BidenAzar in departure letter says Capitol riot threatens to 'tarnish' administration's accomplishments House Democrats introduce measures to oppose Trump's bomb sale to Saudis On The Money: Retail sales drop in latest sign of weakening economy | Fast-food workers strike for minimum wage | US officials raise concerns over Mexico's handling of energy permits MORE.
“The political polling profession is done,” Luntz told Axios early Wednesday morning. “It is devastating for my industry.”
Beyond the presidential election, which remains close on Wednesday, many pollsters were projecting that Democrats would gain House seats and the Senate majority.
Instead, it appears that Republicans will gain House seats and that the party has a strong chance of keeping control of the Senate.
Last month, Luntz told Fox News anchor Bret Baier what the consequences would be for pollsters if the industry gets it wrong again after there were polls in 2016 that appeared to project easy wins for Democrat Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonMillennials and the great reckoning on race Biden chooses Amanda Gorman as youngest known inaugural poet Can Biden encompass the opposition he embodied? MORE over President Trump
Donald TrumpCIA chief threatened to resign over push to install Trump loyalist as deputy: report Azar in departure letter says Capitol riot threatens to 'tarnish' administration's accomplishments Justice Dept. argues Trump should get immunity from rape accuser's lawsuit MORE in such states as Wisconsin.
"Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that's my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done," he said.
On Tuesday morning on the day of the election, The New York Times gave Biden a 70 percent chance of winning Florida, a state Trump won by more than 3 points.
A final poll out of Wisconsin from ABC News and The Washington Post for Wisconsin showed the Democratic nominee enjoying a 17-point lead in the Badger State. Trump is now within 0.7 points of Biden in the state.
FiveThirtyEight.com projected that Democrats had a 70 percent chance to take back the Senate, while Biden had a 89 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Members of the media unapologetically piled on the pollster misses.
NYT/Siena, rated an A+ pollster by 538, overestimated Biden's support by:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 4, 2020
6+ in FL
4+ in NC
Probably 6ish in MI when the count is in
10 ish in WI
10+ in IA
9+ in OH
Great job.
Perspective: We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again. https://t.co/t58h0UVSH2
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 4, 2020
Modern American polling is dead and modern American pollsters should find another vocation so they stop wasting all of our collective time and helping to gaslight the media and American public.
— Meghan McCainMeghan Marguerite McCainCindy McCain on possible GOP censure: 'I think I'm going to make T-shirts' Arizona county's Republican committee debates censuring Cindy McCain Celebrities, Trump supporters react to banning of president's Twitter account MORE (@MeghanMcCain) November 4, 2020
It's early, but it's worth noting that Univision Network teamed up with Joe Biden's Latino pollster to claim Trump was *LOSING* Cubans by 15.
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) November 4, 2020
He's winning Cubans by ~40.
Univision's poll was off by 55 pts.https://t.co/fN2aRcvmMY
