Frank Luntz declared that “the polling profession is done” after this year's presidential election, in which a number of polls appeared to show a much brighter picture in various states for Democratic presidential nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenDeputy AG: DOJ investigating fake Trump electors On The Money — Vaccine-or-test mandate for businesses nixed Warner tests positive for breakthrough COVID-19 case MORE.
“The political polling profession is done,” Luntz told Axios early Wednesday morning. “It is devastating for my industry.”
Beyond the presidential election, which remains close on Wednesday, many pollsters were projecting that Democrats would gain House seats and the Senate majority.
Instead, it appears that Republicans will gain House seats and that the party has a strong chance of keeping control of the Senate.
Last month, Luntz told Fox News anchor Bret Baier what the consequences would be for pollsters if the industry gets it wrong again after there were polls in 2016 that appeared to project easy wins for Democrat Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonThe Armageddon elections to come Poll: Trump leads 2024 Republican field with DeSantis in distant second The politics of 'mind control' MORE over President TrumpDonald TrumpDeputy AG: DOJ investigating fake Trump electors Former Boston Red Sox star David Ortiz elected to Baseball Hall of Fame Overnight Health Care — Senators unveil pandemic prep overhaul MORE in such states as Wisconsin.
"Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that's my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done," he said.
On Tuesday morning on the day of the election, The New York Times gave Biden a 70 percent chance of winning Florida, a state Trump won by more than 3 points.
A final poll out of Wisconsin from ABC News and The Washington Post for Wisconsin showed the Democratic nominee enjoying a 17-point lead in the Badger State. Trump is now within 0.7 points of Biden in the state.
FiveThirtyEight.com projected that Democrats had a 70 percent chance to take back the Senate, while Biden had a 89 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Members of the media unapologetically piled on the pollster misses.
NYT/Siena, rated an A+ pollster by 538, overestimated Biden's support by:— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 4, 2020
6+ in FL
4+ in NC
Probably 6ish in MI when the count is in
10 ish in WI
10+ in IA
9+ in OH
Perspective: We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again. https://t.co/t58h0UVSH2— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 4, 2020
Modern American polling is dead and modern American pollsters should find another vocation so they stop wasting all of our collective time and helping to gaslight the media and American public.— Meghan McCainMeghan Marguerite McCainMeghan McCain calls for CNN to fire Cuomo Abby Huntsman blames 'View' exit on 'unbearable culture' McCain blasts Graham for refuting funeral remark about Kushner, Ivanka Trump MORE (@MeghanMcCain) November 4, 2020
It's early, but it's worth noting that Univision Network teamed up with Joe Biden's Latino pollster to claim Trump was *LOSING* Cubans by 15.— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) November 4, 2020
He's winning Cubans by ~40.
Univision's poll was off by 55 pts.https://t.co/fN2aRcvmMY